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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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3 hours ago, Bruegelian said:

Hi everyone, first post on here, though have been a member of TWO for a few years, so know how the game works and all that :)

Just wanted to say that I seem to remember that part of the problem last year with getting cold spells was lack of low pressure to our south, but I think this year maybe looks more favourable in that respect.

Great to have you posting Bruegelian!

Certainly as far as November is concerned, hopes remain fair today that we'll get low pressure established to our south-east. The ECM OP/ENS remain consistent with yesterday on the theme of shooting low pressure from the NW towards Central Europe, splitting heights to the east and west in the process - at D10, the op and clusters are all on this page:

ECM1-240.GIF?02-12  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017110200_240.

The GFS 06Z op went off the idea a bit, but the ens still go that way in the D10-D15 period - represented by quite a strong tendency towards the Euro trough by D13 on the mean:

gens-21-1-312.png

Of course low heights over Europe are not enough on their own, but they do open up potential gateways to cold, and the ECM clusters are, as yesterday, about 50/50 after D10 on either developing heights over the top of the Euro trough, or pushing the trough away. So the direction remains hopefully for a colder mid-November set-up but with a number of fences to clear yet.

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ECM Eps didn't follow GEFS today in sending the AO and NAO negative. GEFS did this on the 0z and 06z run and this was a further "upgrade", or however you want to call it, from the 12z and 18z yesterday. Teleconnections don't quite fit the model output at the moment, so one or the other has to be changing. No idea which :-)

 

 

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528 dam going well south on GFS 06z a transient cold northerly blast. I'm quite impressed since last week the models have been interested in something cooler for bonfire night. Chance of wintry precipitation across the uplands of northern Britain slowly but surely the cold season is gaining traction. :) 

image.thumb.png.324828024d8b20fa25b21efbb74750d1.pngimage.thumb.png.7513d402ad97e80103cea9cae2d65548.png

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Still looks uninspiring to me - looks like standard +NAO to my eyes with low pressure systems skirting north and high pressure to the south and east.

Looking at the meto update they must agree as they are talking about drier in the south and wettter across the north before unsettled weather becomes more in control across the uk.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still looks uninspiring to me - looks like standard +NAO to my eyes with low pressure systems skirting north and high pressure to the south and east.

Looking at the meto update they must agree as they are talking about drier in the south and wettter across the north before unsettled weather becomes more in control across the uk.

 

Quite agree. There is nothing at the moment to suggest anything that is outside of the norm for the time of the year. Seeing the 528 dam line progress towards the UK at times is nothing to get excited about as it's what we should expect as we head through November, but I guess the past few years have really lowered our standards.

I'm hoping that we something click into place towards December, the time when we have the potential for some really cold weather.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite agree. There is nothing at the moment to suggest anything that is outside of the norm for the time of the year. Seeing the 528 dam line progress towards the UK at times is nothing to get excited about as it's what we should expect as we head through November, but I guess the past few years have really lowered our standards.

I'm hoping that we something click into place towards December, the time when we have the potential for some really cold weather.

Is the CFS monthly still looking good for December? 

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite agree. There is nothing at the moment to suggest anything that is outside of the norm for the time of the year. Seeing the 528 dam line progress towards the UK at times is nothing to get excited about as it's what we should expect as we head through November, but I guess the past few years have really lowered our standards.

I'm hoping that we something click into place towards December, the time when we have the potential for some really cold weather.

Wouldn’t think anyone gets excited about November sypnotics away from northern high ground unless they are exceptional and last third of the month CC.  Some encouraging signs for the final weeks of autumn from a coldie perspective for the time being. the broad hemispheric pattern looks a bit shifted west from its usual position to me - could encourage more trough disruption east side of the Atlantic. 

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is the CFS monthly still looking good for December? 

Looking great

cfs_anom_t2m_eur_201712_28.thumb.png.22caa6e22c09ac0e422e93c769096efa.png

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Looking great

cfs_anom_t2m_eur_201712_28.thumb.png.22caa6e22c09ac0e422e93c769096efa.png

At least we don't have the well above average anomalies! lol

Do you have the pressure chart?

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Wouldn’t think anyone gets excited about November sypnotics away from northern high ground unless they are exceptional and last third of the month CC.  Some encouraging signs for the final weeks of autumn from a coldie perspective for the time being. the broad hemispheric pattern looks a bit shifted west from its usual position to me - could encourage more trough disruption east side of the Atlantic. 

Agreed, and your thoughts are always respected BA :)

All looks very +NAO though, with enough activity in the Atlantic jet to prevent much hope of retrogression.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

At least we don't have the well above average anomalies! lol

Do you have the pressure chart?

cfs_anom_z500_globe_201712_28.thumb.png.5a3945ed1c228ee8d794357770e6b6fa.png

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

cfs_anom_z500_globe_201712_28.thumb.png.5a3945ed1c228ee8d794357770e6b6fa.png

Thanks. it looks awful!

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I don't believe that chart from December. Seems set on a default setting. 

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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

I don't believe that chart from December. Seems set on a default setting. 

I don't want to believe that chart!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrible for coldies thats for sure!

Horrible for anyone. That really is nightmare fuel.

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19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrible for coldies thats for sure!

Wouldn't bank on this knocker.

confidenceis growing on a cooler more seasonal winter.

I wouldn't believe any of the long range models even if there showing cold.

So let's be realistic.

In the mean time looking settled a cold at night which is better than blow torch SW flow.

Blocking I'm certain will feature more this winter.

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26 minutes ago, knocker said:

cfs_anom_z500_globe_201712_28.thumb.png.5a3945ed1c228ee8d794357770e6b6fa.png

Hand picked.

especially considering even short term the met office are chopping and changing.

Let's await the mighty ECM.

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28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, and your thoughts are always respected BA :)

All looks very +NAO though, with enough activity in the Atlantic jet to prevent much hope of retrogression.

I deliberately avoided the phrase 'retrogression'. I tend to think of that as reflecting patterns moving east to west against their usual movement. this looks more like the background standing pattern of vortex Siberia to ne Canada/Greenland being shifted further west into central Canada. allows for height rises in the n atlantic  

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Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

Hand picked.

especially considering even short term the met office are chopping and changing.

Let's await the mighty ECM.

Well, in fairness he was asked to post it...

 

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40 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is the CFS monthly still looking good for December? 

I looked last night. Looked horrendous with +NAO right through to Feb. I'm not feeling too optimistic at present but you never know with the weather! 

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8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Wouldn't bank on this knocker.

confidenceis growing on a cooler more seasonal winter.

I wouldn't believe any of the long range models even if there showing cold.

So let's be realistic.

In the mean time looking settled a cold at night which is better than blow torch SW flow.

Blocking I'm certain will feature more this winter.

Long range modelling has always seemingly had a good handle on default 'zonal patterns' so confidence in this outcome should be higher. They tend to struggle more picking out patterns against the normal climatological mean. 

In a broad sense, the CFS and GLOSEA have been rock solid behind a +NAO winter for months. I struggle to see what will alter to change their prognosis. 

Edited by CreweCold

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