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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

There are charts using GFS (the American Global Forecasting system) from Net Weather as well, see the list on the home page.

Thanks John, I should of course have mentioned that. I'll go stand in the corner. :)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Just now, knocker said:

Thanks John, I should of course have mentioned that. I'll go stand in the corner. :)

forgiven JUST this once, mind you Paul may issue some kind of punishment!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely ecm run!!

MAJOR cool down for early Nov across much of central and east  Europe as cold air spills out of the Arctic and the warm air continues to push into Greenland.

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Yes, quite a significant cool down indeed. Going from above average to below in a few days. Good to see parts of Europe starting to cool, if it comes off that is. As a post script, good that you pointed out central and eastern Europe. Many people don't seem to realise the distinction and geography is important when we're looking at the progression of the weather. The map I've included is useful, eastern Europe is pink, central Europe yellow etc (source, CIA World Fact Book).

ensemble-tt6-warsaw (3).gif

680px-Europe_subregion_map_world_factbook.svg.png

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
5 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm take on the amplification has the pattern further west with the trough more central in the Atlantic A variation on a Rex Block?

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.7620ebb86eb500a6074d5b1b86fbbf6f.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.139283c6cdb39423cd7a88985464f290.png

Hi . What is a rex block please? Dont think ive come across  that one before (though saying that the memory is not what it once was sadly) thank you

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Too many times these trends have not materialised, but it's worth stating that the overall trend for D10-D15 is for some sort of build of heights in the Atlantic (with the odd dissenter). Even if toned down, it would probably lead to something cooler than of late unless we get a strong trough to the SW:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101800_264.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101800_300.  gens-21-1-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
42 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Hi . What is a rex block please? Dont think ive come across  that one before (though saying that the memory is not what it once was sadly) thank you

Essentially it's a high pressure system located immediately north of a low pressure system.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/pdf/rex_block.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO powers up the Atlantic and blows away the fledgling scandy high away.

Yes quite a difference from the GFS

UW144-21.GIF?18-18  gfs-0-144.png?12

Another warm spell coming up if the GFS is right tonight:

gfs-0-192.png?12  gfs-1-192.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is taking the low  a little further north than previous. At 06 on Saturday it is central Ireland 976mb with the strongest winds in Fastnet, Lundy, south Irish Sea, Plymouth and along the Channel coast, gusting between 50-60kts. The main rain belt in the Irish Sea.

By 12 it is over the north Irish Sea 982mb Wind much the same with the main rain belt just a little further east.

By 18 around Edinburgh 984mb and the winds to the south west have abated a little but still quite windy in the Irish Sea and along the W/SW coasts and even inland in Wales and the Midlands gusting in the mid 40s kts range.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

We look like entering a more typical period of unsettled Autumnal weather as we have lows projected to run ne from the Atlantic between Scotland and Iceland over the next week of so after the weekend storm has traversed the UK..

All the models showing a similar overall picture with just some fine detail to sort out wrt the actual tracks of the lows but rain or showers with some strong to gale force winds are on the menu for many areas at different times.

UK fax has the next deep low crossing England on Saturday as it moves ne into the north sea during the following 24/36 hrs so quite a wild weekend is on the cards.

fax72s.gif?1

Day 5 from the models show the UK into a typical robust south westerly setup with the usual interaction between the sub tropical high to the south and the Greenland/Icelandic trough to the north.

 UN120-21.GIF?18-19gfsnh-0-120.png?12ECH1-120.GIF?18-0

The SE quarter as ever look likely to see the best of any drier/brighter interludes in this pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
6 hours ago, knocker said:

Essentially it's a high pressure system located immediately north of a low pressure system.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/pdf/rex_block.pdf

Thank you knocker. Very nice clear explanation in terms very easy to understand :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

We look like entering a more typical period of unsettled Autumnal weather as we have lows projected to run ne from the Atlantic between Scotland and Iceland over the next week of so after the weekend storm has traversed the UK..

All the models showing a similar overall picture with just some fine detail to sort out wrt the actual tracks of the lows but rain or showers with some strong to gale force winds are on the menu for many areas at different times.

UK fax has the next deep low crossing England on Saturday as it moves ne into the north sea during the following 24/36 hrs so quite a wild weekend is on the cards.

fax72s.gif?1

Day 5 from the models show the UK into a typical robust south westerly setup with the usual interaction between the sub tropical high to the south and the Greenland/Icelandic trough to the north.

 UN120-21.GIF?18-19gfsnh-0-120.png?12ECH1-120.GIF?18-0

The SE quarter as ever look likely to see the best of any drier/brighter interludes in this pattern.

Not just the southeast quarter I would think owing to that infamous Euro Slug which seems to be more and more evident from around the 25th onwards. Seems by then to be fending off the Atlantic pretty well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
36 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Not just the southeast quarter I would think owing to that infamous Euro Slug which seems to be more and more evident from around the 25th onwards. Seems by then to be fending off the Atlantic pretty well. 

Yes the Op run showed that in week 2 although i was only commenting on the coming week which does look quite unsettled especially further nw you go .

Just glancing at the mean charts though

EDH1-240.GIF?18-0gensnh-21-1-240.png

not so good with any ridging looking transient in week 2 with another tough dropping south towards the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
46 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes the Op run showed that in week 2 although i was only commenting on the coming week which does look quite unsettled especially further nw you go .

Just glancing at the mean charts though

EDH1-240.GIF?18-0gensnh-21-1-240.png

not so good with any ridging looking transient in week 2 with another tough dropping south towards the UK.

And here's the evidence - top ECM cluster at T240 has a storm over us:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101812_240.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm not hugely different to the gfs vis Saturdays low. No doubt it will be dissected in detail elsewhere so suffice it to at 12 Saturday the low is north Irish Sea 980mb with a broad swathe of strong westerly winds Fastnet, Irish Sea, Lundy, and Bristol Channel gusting around mid 50kts area. Perhaps slightly higher in some places and a little lower around the south west coasts.

EDIT

The ecm treats the amplification slightly differently to the gfs thus the upper trough takes closer order to the UK so although still warm the WAA tends to slide to the east more.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Big differences today:

GFS: gfs-0-144.png UKMO: UW144-21.GIF?19-07 ECM: ECM1-144.GIF?19-12

UKMO says absolutely no pressure rise over Northern Europe, very flat and unsettled. GFS starts to turn things much drier and warmer from the south. ECM a bit between the two. More runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Don't tell the coldies ... ECM once again pushing the 15C uppers line towards us at T240. 

All depends on how troughing to our SW forms. Could easily result in ridging over the top, cutting off the warmest flow.

Still, some way off

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Aperge brings this weekends low further south across South Wales and it’s strongest winds through the Bristol Channel and along the south coast.

1A2AF1B2-A9DE-4A0C-8352-5C7D98E7EB7E.thumb.png.ea4d80bc46ac1035b5b84da32828d9b1.pngBB9ED6A2-9145-40B6-9874-775DB5BE1784.thumb.png.51b64f0fe6901d794a4bc81034fedc8f.pngACCA26BC-94BD-4717-8B52-A74E71992ABB.thumb.png.867f372ac9cc0ebc9fac20a2a20e2348.pngC2A75AD0-A243-44D2-8A1F-E84FFCEA2EC9.thumb.png.9acd731bd6c77e14a4b57c39839f52a5.png98B4F6DE-45E9-488C-9E2C-B906FC6401D1.thumb.png.725360c07ef1dabef0e1350a692f3aef.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Last night's NOAA and this morning's GEFS and EPS anomalies are all indicating a dry and quite warm few days from the middle of next week certainly for the southern half of the UK. The precise orientation of the trough/ridge in the vicinity of the UK will influence how the det runs sort the detail and there are some differences in this respect.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.2e5c35a8daa0846a42ec231c6796b82e.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.19f64b8aa8d7b2604cbba2200077f2a2.png610day_03.thumb.gif.8aac49b0a61bc6d09d7e1cba6a4f0337.gif

Looking further afield indication are that the amplification quickly diminishes with a ridge in the western Atlantic and a weak trough over the UK so the suggestion of  a more prosaic fairly light W/NW upper flow and temps returning to normal but quite a few differences here so best left a while

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

In spite of the benign looking op runs, ensembles are increasingly replacing high pressure with low pressure across our shores by D10. Probably quite warm between D7-D9, esp. in S and E.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101900_192.

 

 

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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