Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Just musing.. but the ECM clusters are solid.

Maybe it's my pedantry Daniel but if they were rock solid there would only be one cluster ...............

5 clusters tells me that there is uncertainty in the extended period

[Derecho]

Well not much more to add about that sensational run, one of the best I have seen. I think from T156 to T360 we are under a northerly flow of some sort, wow!

I gave it a 9.5 because its almost as good as it can possibly get, would go up to a 10 if it was record breaking... but that is reserved for the most special of occasions... maybe it could ...

Edited November 26, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Pembroke Dangler]

Can this set up get over the line? Can it? I mean come on we are owed so much after the last few winters this would be Worth the wait please no shortwave dramas or flip flopping.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If this is to all fall down now and go the way of the pear, I think us coldies will be genuinely crushed. I don't think I could take any more let downs!

The 18z GFS is fantastic beyond words, and even shows good consistency with the minor strat warming event.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z is very generous, it shares the snow so everyone gets some, really incredible stuff..looking forward to more upgrades tomorrow!☺??

Edited November 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe it's my pedantry Daniel but if they were rock solid there would only be one cluster ...............

5 clusters tells me that there is uncertainty in the extended period

Rock solid in terms of blocking, any one of those would be good for the UK (apart from the one that shows high pressure to the S)

[blizzard81]

Cmon fax charts, please update lol

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

If this is to all fall down now and go the way of the pear, I think us coldies will be genuinely crushed. I don't think I could take any more let downs!

The 18z GFS is fantastic beyond words, and even shows good consistency with the minor strat warming event.

Come on Aaron you know that's a slap in the face for us mild lovers 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Come on Aaron you know that's a slap in the face for us mild lovers 

You mild lovers have had more than your fill over the past few years 

Get your snouts out of the trough now haha!

Edited November 26, 2017 by CreweCold

[bobbydog]

Boom indeed...

[Met4Cast]

The control run is going to be something special too - I can't wait to see the full ensemble set for this run.

[snowice]

I need a finger transplant  the tread is moving so fast

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cmon fax charts, please update lol

They just have, not been modified they’re a carbon copy of the op run.

 

[swilliam]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cmon fax charts, please update lol

Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 And a very nice cake too. Something is definitely afoot.

Yep!!!

and he is smiling at the 18z too

[Met4Cast]

What use are the FAX charts if they're just a carbon copy of the UKMO run? Surely the Met aren't thinking their model is calling this right?

[blizzard81]

Just now, nick sussex said:

They just have, not been modified they’re a carbon copy of the op run.

 

Yep, absolutely unbelievable. I love this country - NOT! Such a spoil sport. 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

I need a finger transplant  the tread is moving so fast

You even type with an Irish accent 

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, Ian Francis said:

i've run that through google translate and it still isn't making sense

 

Sorry ian..

Its off the back of some jibe'ing...

And purely banter.

End of now back to mods?

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't worry about the FAX charts, Susan Powell said they did expect the high to push in around next weekend bringing mild but then suggested the Northerly will return next week but an even colder  'Biting wind'

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.

I can't believe we've gone through all this today and tonight for that garbage fax chart....night all, it's been fun

[Nick F]

A look at the 12z EC operational run against the ensembles for London, suggests no cold outlier at any stage, it warms up a little late next weekend and early Mon 4th, if anything a little too warm compared to the average, before a big drop in temperature with the Nly reload by Tuesday 5th. The average staying 5C or below right out to the 11th Dec for London. Certainly no worries there ...

Edited November 26, 2017 by Nick F

[Had Worse]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I can't believe we've gone through all this today and tonight for that garbage fax chart....night all, it's been fun

Obviously they haven't got there Fax straight yet.

[blizzard81]

The 18z mean doesn't look quite as good as the 12z one. This on top of the updated fax charts is giving me that sick feeling for the 00z runs. Monday morning's are depressing enough. Please oh please let the ukmo be wrong. 

[Scandinavian High.]

I’ve been a member on here for a few years now I don’t think I’ve seen a chart like this the door is open to the north and when you  look east door is open as well bitter cold .