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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Every frame is worth posting tonight.  Best run in yonks!  Just look at this beauty at 216, so not in the depths of FI

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

Check the uppers, Scotland will get smashed.

gfsnh-1-216.png?18

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

We have been in this situation before, of course. Every chart and their aunt singing from the same cold hymn sheet whilst the UKMO sits there being miserable, pumping out rubbish charts, only for every single other model on the planet and their ensembles to flip and call the UKMO their king.

Lets hope that doesn't happen again.. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are you tight isobar:rofl:

My god...

Nicking my glory slot???

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Holly s**t:shok:,i mean,holy grail:D:bomb:

gfsnh-0-228.png?18gfsnh-1-228.png?18

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

I’m in Dubai from the 3rd till the 8th of December....

Would it be too much to ask if the snow waited till I got back??

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We have been in this situation before, of course. Every chart and their aunt singing from the same cold hymn sheet whilst the UKMO sits there being miserable, pumping out rubbish charts, only for every single other model on the planet and their ensembles to flip and call the UKMO their king.

Lets hope that doesn't happen again.. 

Yes, the champagne on ice until they ALL agree.

Edited by Day 10
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Stunning GFS

For those wondering how JMA extended turned out - frigid with Greenland block

JN252-21.GIF?26-12JN252-7.GIF?26-12

I go away from the 5th so locked in. :unsure2:

Edited by Mucka
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Again russian warmth is becoming a solid format in evolving cold transfer.

From the hotel whisky a go go making ice cubes from north pole..

Into bycycling 855s of -45..

Soon to become the husband of uk . .

Whos bird greeny blocky will step in for the separation!!!!

??sorry could not resist!!???

Edited by tight isobar
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Think iv just followed through after looking at these charts!! Can you imagine if they actually come true ?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

If the UKMO is right it'll be an even more epic fail, for both the GFS and ECM. 

True! I’ve got the NW helpline on speed dial for tomorrow morning!

Given how close in the differences are with 6 hours newer data surely the UKMO must be wrong given the GFS isn’t interested.

We have a few more 18hr outputs to come out, let’s see whether they turn to the dark side!

 

 

 

 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

Evening here is my interpretation of the 18z GFS, 12z ECM and 12z UKMO

Only interpretations upto T240 are made.

Upto T120 ECM and GFS look very similar to the morning runs, cold Thursday looks nailed on now with perhaps snow flurries in 1 or 2 favoured areas. UKMO however handles the energy differently in the Central North Atlantic.

At T144 the GFS looks good enough as far as a potential retrogression to Greenland as does the ECM. UKMO though looks poor as the low cuts through the two North Atlantic high pressure cells like a knife through hot butter:

GFS                                                          UKMO                                                     ECM
GFSOPEU18_144_1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.png

As mentioned earlier, for a future retrogression to Greenland we need the two high pressure cells to link up, UKMO wouldn’t be anything exciting after T144 so some caution is still required.

With the two HP cells joined some WAA can be sent towards Greenland, the smoother this process the better. GFS and ECM do this very well with heights to the NW looking strong. A risk here is that a west based –NAO may develop if high pressure sticks around Spain though. Though thankfully neither the ECM or GFS show this.

GFS                                                          ECM
GFSOPEU18_192_1.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.png

The result of the retrogression is a northerly crashing down over the UK as shown at T240. The GFS and ECM have cold uppers over the UK, the GFS is especially fantastic. The Greenland high is the most important thing though at this point. Get that in place with strong heights and who knows what may happen? 

GFS                                                          ECM
GFSOPEU18_240_1.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Amazing GFS and great ECM but UKMO is a concern because the high to the W of the UK has no potential link so will likely sink south. So lets hope the cold slayer (UKMO) is wrong.

Overall here are the ratings:

UKMO 5/10 snowflakes – Again T144 looks poor after the cold midweek
GFS     9.5/10 snowflakes – A superb run and some really sharp northerlies for early December, stunning
ECM  8/10 snowflakes –  A long cold spell with at least another northerly too

ECM and GFS v UKMO, which will win?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

Are we setting up an easterly now? Might as well!

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

 

Edit - well sort of.  We get an easterly, north easterly, northerly....etc.  What a brilliant run.  

Edited by Ice Day
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again russian warmth is becoming a solid format in evolving cold transfer.

From the hotel whisky a go go making ice cubes from north pole..

Into bycycling 85os of -45..

Soon to become the husband of uk . .

Whos bird greeny blocky will step in for the separation!!!!

??sorry could not resist!!???

 

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We have been in this situation before, of course. Every chart and their aunt singing from the same cold hymn sheet whilst the UKMO sits there being miserable, pumping out rubbish charts, only for every single other model on the planet and their ensembles to flip and call the UKMO their king.

Lets hope that doesn't happen again.. 

You would imagine by tomorrow 00z UKmo will either back down or we will all be in tears:nonono:

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More Runs Needed Aficionado

More Runs Needed

Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
Posted (edited)

This amazing northerly shown by the gfs, what does it mean for snow prospects countrywide?

Edited by Dkeane3
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:

This amazing northerly shown by the gas, what does it show for snow prospects countrywide?

Would look something like this.:D

satellite_uk_241210_mid.jpg

Edited by booferking
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:

This amazing northerly shown by the gfs, what does it show for snow prospects countrywide?

Obviously not in the reliable timeframe but the GFS shows a tonking for huge areas of the country.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Well,that high just keeps on pumping into greenland,another fantastic output again today,is this really going to happen,consistancy is the key.

gfsnh-0-276.png?18gfsnh-0-312.png?18

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

This amazing northerly shown by the gfs, what does it mean for snow prospects countrywide?

Get your shovel.

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