Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the low itself won't be a snowmaker but what comes after... once it passes through it would drag very cold air down with it, would it not?

Absolutely!

I was referring to the LP itself as someone said it was a snow maker and proceeded to argue with me when I pointed out that it was too deep a system to produce snow. Needed to be a shallower feature heading SSE.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

sorry but why ?

Zonal winds at 10hpa drop of the scale(light blue circle),if i am reading that right

Edited November 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[PLANET THANET]

Just now, Dennis said:

bcs its a dive in zonal winds (breaks the Polarvortex activity )

many thanks......still learning

[Dennis]

3 hours ago, Sweatyman said:

Sorry. What will?

the Greenland High is to setup above 1060Hpa

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

bcs its a dive in zonal winds (breaks the Polarvortex activity )

Could you not have said that with your original post.

This thread is no better than the banter thread - come on mods.

[tight isobar]

Ever so-sorry and delete as per.

But i-as many am not here for an education to others.

And will decipher/comment via my own knowledge!

There are various' if you cannot understand/decipher whats being quoted.

Without the need for utter rudeness!!!

[Day 10]

This thread is crazy tonight, so many cryptic messages flying about it's difficult for many to grasp what is actually going on!!

From my point of view in plain English, the week beginning fairly cold with rain clearing the South Monday, followed by a cold Northerly the rest of the week with a few Wintry showers around the coasts.

[bobbydog]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Absolutely!

I was referring to the LP itself as someone said it was a snow maker and proceeded to argue with me when I pointed out that it was too deep a system to produce snow. Needed to be a shallower feature heading SSE.

it will mix out the air to start with but its quite a nasty little system so it'll bring its own fun and games! its also fast moving so it shouldn't last too long and might even bring some back edge snow on some lively winds. blizzards at elevation in the north?...

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please get back to sensible model discussion only and use the Pm system for anything other.

Thanks 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[frosty ground]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Absolutely!

I was referring to the LP itself as someone said it was a snow maker and proceeded to argue with me when I pointed out that it was too deep a system to produce snow. Needed to be a shallower feature heading SSE.

I did and I went on to tell why I think it is a snow maker.... fronts moving into artic air makes snow.... artic air moving into the rear if fronts make snow. 

The bit in bold was also added by myself

Not rocket science 

Edited November 26, 2017 by frosty ground

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

it will mix out the air to start with but its quite a nasty little system so it'll bring its own fun and games! its also fast moving so it shouldn't last too long and might even bring some back edge snow on some lively winds. blizzards at elevation in the north?...

The Ecm 12z tonight is reloading cold shots heaven, we have the first incoming during the next few days then a lull followed by an even more potent one followed by another beyond T+240 hours..if either the Gfs  / Ecm are close to the mark, coldies are in for a lot of fun in the next 2-4 weeks and especially if Exeter stays on its current course..it will be Boom time!

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm mean trickling out now,this mornings one would take some beating,that's for sure

EDIT:at 216,to it's 240 from this morning

Edited November 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Dennis]

-10 on 850Hpa line is setting down on wednesday from the norh

[northwestsnow]

Well the dust has settled..for now.

I'm just really happy EC has not followed UKMO tonight- its quite unusual really, when there is a difference between UKM and GFS  in my expereience EC nearly always follows UKM.

Thats not to say UKM is wrong.

Anyway, i'm not fussing over day 10 charts, i think we all know at this range details will change, my priority at the moment is to get the UKM onside and crucially, get the 168 chart down to 96.

Really enjoying model watching at the moment, all those non Net weather members dont know what they are missing- who needs the premier league football when there is this much drama on our fabulous weather site.

Cheers to Paul and the mods for allowing us all to follow our passion here.

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm/gfs means at day ten,not bad are they

mean height anomoly's

Edited November 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended remaining settled for the majority though a few showers scattered about

[Yarmy]

18 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

many thanks......still learning

This perhaps gives a clearer image:

It's from the same website as the other images posted above.

http://weatheriscool.com

Be warned though that the GEFS (each of those green lines is an individual GEFS ensemble member, the other colours are from other models) have a strong negative bias (h/t to @Recretos on here who has demonstrated this).

Moreover, what the long term consequences are is far from certain. One interesting tidbit from that site is that the record low mean for today's date was in 1996 (and the winter that followed was uneventful) and the record high mean was in 1986 (with the memorable January 87 spell).

[Tracy Flick]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm/gfs means at day ten,not bad are they

Good, but the ridge seems reluctant to amplify any further north: by 240h it seems to be retreating back toward its comfort zone of the Azores.  It'd be nice if one of the ridges would amplify to Greenland and actually stick there. 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining settled for the majority though a few showers scattered about

Hard to see the full picture but looks like a complete flattening. But on its own at the moment!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Hard to see the full picture but looks like a complete flattening. But on its own at the moment!

Looks dreadful to me too!! Looks like the jet is already sinking the high, and the Atlantic profile is poor.

That said after seeing the 144 i didn't expect anything else.

Hopefully faulty- or actually, please by faulty.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Ryerson said:

Good, but the ridge seems reluctant to amplify any further north: by 240h it seems to be retreating back toward its comfort zone of the Azores.  It'd be nice if one of the ridges would amplify to Greenland and actually stick there. 

On an ens mean at day 10?  Not asking for much then! 

[Allseasons-Si]

 

12 minutes ago, Ryerson said:

Good, but the ridge seems reluctant to amplify any further north: by 240h it seems to be retreating back toward its comfort zone of the Azores.  It'd be nice if one of the ridges would amplify to Greenland and actually stick there. 

It's better than the mean to the exact date two years ago(forecasted at day ten),i know which one i would take

Edited November 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's better than the mean to the exact date two years ago(forecasted at day ten)

For a second I just seen the picture and almost fell off my chair then i seen the comment and then the date. All is fine 

[phil nw.]

Continuing signal in the GFS/ECM ens and op runs for another Greenland ridge in week 2. 

Day 8 mean charts

This pattern is on repeat by the looks-more cold nw or n winds with frosts and wintry showers,snow on hills.A seasonal start to Winter if this verifies.

 

[Tracy Flick]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

It's better than the mean to the exact date two years ago(forecasted at day ten),i know which one i would take

I like extreme weather... but yeah the flooding and wind damage wasn't good.

Also, today's GEFS output is suggesting northern blocking isn't favoured.  Something is working against it, not just averaging of data.

But things change quickly, so...