Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[lorenzo]

Current bias look at day 5 from ECM / UKMO and GFS based on last 10 12z runs for 500mb. For our locale UKMO on point.

ECM and UKMO markedly different over CONUS.

GFS - it just does what it wants!

[karlos1983]

ECM is hardly flawless, does have a tendency to over amplify, as we have found out on many occasions before, or have we forgotten that ?

[Dennis]

well it seems strong (very)

[tight isobar]

Please excuse some of my terminology..

Iv'e been on the #### with the 18z gfs ??

#pub-#run

Edited November 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

ECM is hardly flawless, does have a tendency to over amplify, as we have found out on many occasions before, or have we forgotten that ?

Nope...i havent forgotand it did earn the 'slayer' tag from steve murr in years past....

Im sure he is tearing his hair out like the rest of us..

[Met4Cast]

Just musing

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM is hardly flawless, does have a tendency to over amplify, as we have found out on many occasions before, or have we forgotten that ?

Yes but this time it's not without support going by the 12z gfs and ukmet update so even if it was a little less amplified I think we would still get a potent northerly with a reload pattern setting up and rince and repeat. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM is hardly flawless, does have a tendency to over amplify, as we have found out on many occasions before, or have we forgotten that ?

You're right, it's just that I have this strong desire for cold / snow that the Gfs  is showing, anyway, this month has already produced some fantastic exciting model watching and I hope it continues in december.love it when this forum is buzzing.☺????

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Yes but this time it's not without support going by the 12z gfs and ukmet update so even if it was a little less amplified I think we would still get a potent northerly with a reload pattern setting up and rince and repeat. 

We have agreement on a northerly, that’s about it so far.

Just now, Frosty. said:

You're right, it's just that I have this strong desire for cold / snow that the Gfs  is showing, anyway, this month has already produced some fantastic exciting model watching and I hope it continues in december.love it when this forum is buzzing.☺????

Absolutely, bring it on. #justsaying

[Chris.]

So now we have a cold week ahead....which model was the closest the to real world/todays weather patterns?  Lets say 7-10 days out forecast?

[Gael_Force]

16 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep, the Exeter update is not interchangeable with UKMO I’m not sure what it is, but UKMO has been performing poorly the EC has taken the lead here, as it usually always does. Hopeful EC will not disappoint tonight.

I'm not sure why a 6 day model is even being mentioned in relation to mid December ??

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm not sure why a 6 day model is even being mentioned in relation to mid December ??

It sets up the scene for later on beyond that time period with UKMO I always look at D5/D6 with great caution, anecdotally it doesn’t do the best. I’d much rather see a promising D5/D6 with ECMWF model the UKMO isn’t exactly awfu god no, but for what it is at the bottom of the pile, we’d be highly unlikely to see IMO. 

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm not sure why a 6 day model is even being mentioned in relation to mid December ??

Because it is very difficult to see how today's 12z UKMO run would then go on to lead to what the Met are saying for the first half of December without some pretty unlikely amplification/synoptic evolution. So, it seems to be contrary to the latest forecast

Edited November 26, 2017 by LRD

[That ECM]

The difference can be seen as early on as t72. I watch the output with oven gloves on as I have had my fingers burnt so many times. Obviously nothing else just the gloves t96 shows it even more clearly.

Edited November 26, 2017 by That ECM

[Allseasons-Si]

At 72 the ecm is bang on with the gfs with the trough placement and seperation in the Atlantic,the ukmo isn't.

....

[Met4Cast]

The low is further South on the ECM at 96 similar to the GFS, it's not going the way of UKMisery 

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Because it is very difficult to see how today's 12z UKMO run would then go on to lead to what the Met are saying for the first half of December without some pretty unlikely amplification/synoptic evolution. So, it seems to be contrary to the latest forecast

Well, it won't be the first time that the written word has been stymied by the next run of the models .... there's a long way to go till mid December! Just look at the EC monthly: it's been flopping from cold to mild and back to cold for a couple of weeks. I made mention of this in the CET thread.

[Allseasons-Si]

At 96

look at the difference,ecm def goes with gfs

......

[LRD]

Just now, Gael_Force said:

Well, it won't be the first time that the written word has been stymied by the next run of the models .... there's a long way to go till mid December! Just look at the EC monthly: it's been flopping from cold to mild and back to cold for a couple of weeks. I made mention of this in the CET thread.

Oh yes quite agree but you were asking why December was mentioned in relation to a 6 day chart. That's why. It also works the other way, of course - the models (that we see for free) can be stymied by other models and the words that are then written in rersponse to those models we don't see. I s'pose we're trying to get our hopes up that UKMO is wrong tonight based on the Met's update

[tight isobar]

A lot hinges...

12z ec.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A lot hinges...

12z ec.

Too much to fit in a sentence? 

Edited November 26, 2017 by karlos1983

[tight isobar]

Ec.

Steadfast on a'devolping evolution.

Makes light work of punching @greenland...

Hold the mid-ridge firm...

And trickles to scandy...

Im buying it!

Warm pooling and height building in no question...

And ec over amplify non-view.

So its an atlantic holding ridge..

Shutdown!..

And a develop' @scandi twist around...

Seems viable!!!

Edited November 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[Singularity]

  

Compared to 00z on right 12 hours later in time, enough of a difference for me wonder if the second cut-off low, a little off the East U.S. Coast, will develop as much on this run. At least some degree of LP is needed for boosting the ridge toward Greenland and if it's too weak that may prove insufficient - we'll soon see!

[Allseasons-Si]

At 120

trough ready to pounce from southern tip of Greenland and much earlier than the gfs,could be a stonking run this

[Singularity]

Okay, we have lift-off.

UKMO, why must you put such a dent in our excitement? It could have been a perfect evening of model watching, although even then I'd have retained some wariness because, y'know, blighty.

Edit: Actually I should not be so certain as there is more of a hang-back of lower heights across Canada so we're really relying on that angle of the ridge to do the job. It might yet end up at least a bit less sharply amplified than the 00z. Again - we'll soon know...

Edited November 26, 2017 by Singularity