Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Mucka]

This post may get lost in the excitement of the GFS 12z run but anyhoooo

Now that GFS seems to have resolved upstream amplification and the behaviour of the trough we have one last hurdle IMO.

The stalled Atlantic low. GEM and UKMO want to make it a spoiler and bring it North so that it phases with the upper trough, ECM and GFS keep it closed off.

The important timing is 96h to 144h.

So long as that low remains trapped and barring GFS and ECM having upstream horribly wrong the evolution to cold looks solid.

Focus for the next few runs will likely turn to the Atlantic low.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On a side note- the lack of properly deep cold uppers around the NH in general is pretty astonishing given it will be December by that point.

[mother nature rocks]

Wow the difference between the 6z and 12z is incredible. Much much better 12z with more amplification and ridging pushing north thru Greenland. Seriously need to get the big 3 on the same page. Turning into a great run-up to Xmas!!!!! ☃️❄️☃️?

[tight isobar]

850- hpa is non difinative atm!

Spiral convection will apply these to a spillage point..

And will most likely model in short time perm.

Unleash the cold?

[shotski]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

On a side note- the lack of properly deep cold uppers around the NH in general is pretty astonishing given it will be December by that point.

Looks ok to me ?

2010 for comparison 

Edited November 26, 2017 by shotski

[markw2680]

I hate to be the one to moan but although these charts all look great now everything always just gets watered down in the end, like this coming week yeah will be cold but dry, some may say it was always going to be dry etc but a few days ago the charts where looking better than they do now for the next few days etc. Just my opinion of course 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

850- hpa is non difinative atm!

Spiral convection will apply these to a spillage point..

And will most likely model in short time perm.

Unleash the cold?

Spiral convection? Spillage point? I've heard some dodgy meteorological terms in this thread but those are new ones!

[tight isobar]

Usa.. 

Looking very ominus...

-where is our polar vortex--???

[NeilN]

This is good enough for me, happy we may see a few flakes on Thursday if it comes off in Weston! 

[Mucka]

JFF but one for Frosty in his post up later.

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Usa.. 

Looking very ominus...

-where is our polar vortex--???

Mind!..

Ya would'nt want that on ya nose as a whart.....or worse!..

And just other scope on ridge apply..

At western-seaboard/usa

Edited November 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs 12z certainly unleashes the cold..this is a great time for model watching with an increasingly cold week coming up with biting Northerly winds! I will post some charts soon.

We are rapidly approaching the spillage point

Edited November 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well the Gfs 12z certainly unleashes the cold..this is a great time for model watching with an increasingly cold week coming up with biting Northerly winds! I will post some charts soon.

2010 ditto on the cards from that run - or certainly in that direction

[mother nature rocks]

Well surely if the GFS 12z actually came to fruition we would all be knee deep in the white stuff. Ok 850’s aren’t great at the moment but with the duration of cold predicted then they would be colder nearer the time?? Banging run now come on ECM!!!! And no I didn’t call anyone Shirley ??❄️☃️

[Methuselah]

IMO, this thread sometimes reads like a comic opera...a snowman's lot is quite a nippy one - nippy one!

[tight isobar]

16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Spiral convection? Spillage point? I've heard some dodgy meteorological terms in this thread but those are new ones!

Yeah.. i bow.

I was refering to amplification and pivot of waves!!! Conducting upper air release!..(850hpa)

But granted a quite outragious quote!??

Edited November 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

Gfs is great but excitement has to be reduced as ukmo is not as good. Tomorrow's 12z will show who's on the money.

Edited November 26, 2017 by That ECM

[london-snow]

15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I hate to be the one to moan but although these charts all look great now everything always just gets watered down in the end, like this coming week yeah will be cold but dry, some may say it was always going to be dry etc but a few days ago the charts where looking better than they do now for the next few days etc. Just my opinion of course 

I don't see any watering down of charts just differentating variations of possibilities currently all output is cold. The key differences are from +72 - +144 on how we go forward. 

 

Take a a chill pill and enjoy the ice train...

[bobbydog]

snowy run all the way 

and who let the air out of the vortex??

[nick sussex]

Very hard to judge what would happen next on that crappy UKMO T144hrs output.

It looks like it will amplify the Pacific troughing as it moves east which down stream would sharpen up the pattern over the eastern USA but the issue is that shortwave phasing .

Its not a given  that we can’t hang onto some colder conditions but it’s impossible for the UKMO to look anything like tonight’s GFS as you’re  past the point of no return by T144hrs.

 

 

 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

2010 ditto on the cards from that run - or certainly in that direction

Big ask tbh looking at that run! !!that said I guess given the volatility and swinging who nos

[tight isobar]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Very hard to judge what would happen next on that crappy UKMO T144hrs output.

It looks like it will amplify the Pacific troughing as it moves east which down stream would sharpen up the pattern over the eastern USA but the issue is that shortwave phasing .

Its not a given  that we can’t hang onto some colder conditions but it’s impossible for the UKMO to look anything like tonight’s GFS as you’re  past the point of no return by T144hrs.

 

 

 

144hrs being bold via gfs atm nick.

?

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs is great but excitement has to be reduced as ukmo is not as good. Tomorrow's 12z will show who's on the money.

Massive Ecm coming up..thrilling model watching!

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Massive Ecm coming up..thrilling model watching!

Agreed but even if it goes the same way as gfs I'll still want ukmo on board. Nothing's done until it's done but it is encouraging for sure.

[nick sussex]

As soon as NOAA trash tonights UKMO I’ll be back to report it!