Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Weather-history]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

, only good news so far from the 12z's

 

Maybe I'm misreading this but the way you posted this you would think we are looking at the predicted charts going into December 2015....am I misunderstanding this part of your post?

[knocker]

Unblocked 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by knocker

[daz_4]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whatever strat warming we were talking about earlier, the main thing is its still there on the 12z, only good news so far from the 12z's

Delayed though compared to previous runs. At 380 again. It just isn't getting closer.

[captaincroc]

The models have chucked out so many scenarios post 144 everyday. I think we need to focus more on the changes in the *very* reliable as small tweaks can make all the difference. You can the the atlantic high *so* close to being sucked up to Greenland, only a few tweaks will allow that to happen (12z CFS).  Yes, the odds are the high will probably sink into a momma Atlantic block but the more *good* tweaks in the early part of the runs is what I'm after. Whatever happens, it is a brilliant time to be model watching. 

[tight isobar]

?...

Great' synoptics..-via- 12z gfs.

Fully expected miss-shaping due to flux from so many quadrants.

Game on...

Over to ecm 12z...

Some phenomenal blocking!!!

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Maybe I'm misreading this but the way you posted this you would think we are looking at the predicted charts going into December 2015....am I misunderstanding this part of your post?

You've got to build on what you've got, your taking it out of context, that's like the old 40 points target in the Premier League, if your next result is bad then you cant just say 'oh well, at least its better than that time we were already relegated by now'

Anyway the GEFS look good at 192.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

?...

Great' synoptics..-via- 12z gfs.

Fully expected miss-shaping due to flux from so many quadrants.

Game on...

Over to ecm 12z...

Some phenominal blocking!!!

I agree, tremendous charts from the Gfs 12z next week, after Monday. Someone described it as Meh but I think its magnificent for the final days of autumn..some parts which are favoured from northerlies should do well for the magical white stuff next week!the opening salvo of winter. Love it!

Edited November 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You've got to build on what you've got, your taking it out of context, that's like the old 40 points target in the Premier League, if your next result is bad then you cant just say 'oh well, at least its better than that time we were already relegated by now'

Anyway the GEFS look good at 192.

Yeah not a bad +192 mean

[V for Very Cold]

I’m confused... I have experienced members saying unblocking and blocking within 4 posts lol... anyone can give me a potted summary? Lol

[Methuselah]

I must that that GFS is looking preety good, if it's snow you're after...A shame that the UKMO has gone a wee bit 'Spursy' all of a sudden, though?

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

I’m confused... I have experienced members saying unblocking and blocking within 4 posts lol... anyone can give me a potted summary? Lol

In summary, anything could happen past the back end of next week, other than a raging Atlantic, IMHO. cold week ahead the form horse.

however we (myself included) have a habit of saying yay to this week, what’s next! LOL nature of the beast. And currently that’s pretty uncertain.

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

I’m confused... I have experienced members saying unblocking and blocking within 4 posts lol... anyone can give me a potted summary? Lol

Basically its blocking and below average temperatures, even significantly colder than average in some parts of the UK for the next week at least definitely but a lot of hurdles if we are to get widespread snowfall / exceptional cold, the question to be resolved is can we get retrogression of the high to Greenland and if so can we get a direct hit from the Arctic and it not be too far West.

Edited November 25, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, tremendous charts from the Gfs 12z next week, after Monday. Someone described it as Meh but I think its magnificent for the final days of autumn..some parts which are favoured from northerlies should do well for the magical white stuff next week!

 

2 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

I’m confused... I have experienced members saying unblocking and blocking within 4 posts lol... anyone can give me a potted summary? Lol

Miss managment' via gfs 12z imo..

Its as panic striken' as some members in here.

Its a tad diabolic' as it gets close to decipher.

And this is the point im going to look to ecm for parental guidance.

[Mucka]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gem on a similar page to ec 00z and gfs 12z

the clusters on the eps 00z say that the 12z op could go in a few directions in the transition period  -  

Yes I think what we are seeing post 144 is the models trying to resolve how to retrogress the pattern and how amplified the pattern should remain.

Whether we have an unsettled milder phase or whether we stay on the cold side of any blocking or under the block itself. 

Those details will be slow to be resolved and I do think we have seen some worse case scenarios (which actually aren't bad runs) from the models so far this afternoon with messy solutions that don't favour us maintaining a cold feed during the transition.

ECM this morning has probably over simplified things and is too clean (often the case with ECM post 144) but the general idea among all the models is the same.

I personally think a West based neg NAO pattern emerging is unlikely at this stage and that the end of first week/second week of December could bring the coldest weather with good snow opportunities.

Lest we forget. 

Edited November 25, 2017 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

Bit scatty in terms are of pressure. 

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Just looking ahead to the ECM, I would take a repeat of the 0z all day long, Surely we are all agreed now that this Northerly starting today is going to be cold but not severely cold and snowy and its what happens afterwards that's important, as long as that retrogression ticks in another 12 hours, keeps doing so every run and is similar then I will be happy, that trigger shortwave at 240 looks beautiful and would undoubtedly unleash a potent Northerly with snow.

[blizzard81]

43 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

I’m confused... I have experienced members saying unblocking and blocking within 4 posts lol... anyone can give me a potted summary? Lol

It is BLOCKED for the foreseeable, end of! Lol. It's just a case of more wants more I am afraid. I for one am not in that camp. I will not look too far ahead and enjoy a cold, seasonal week ahead. 

[January Snowstorm]

There was plenty evidence last night that future locked in cold was in doubt. The mid range had changed where the Atlantic high rather than retrogressing towards Iceland was staying in situ and energy was spilling over the high.

Also the ecm from last night had the coldest uppers washing out by Friday so what's happened thus afternoon is no surprise to me.

Yes a great start to Winter with oodles of potential going fwd but no great potential of widespread snowfall for the majority. I think the form horse is for the Atlantic to usher in milder air into week 2 with potential blocking again later in December 

[nick sussex]

Some interesting comments from NOAA tonight re model bias:

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
REGIONAL DETAILS BUT PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE LARGE END OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT AND AS EACH OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION MOVES AWAY
FROM THE CONSENSUS AT SOME TIME INTO THE FORECAST...IT DOES SO IN
A MANNER CONSISTENT WITH KNOWN BIASES. THAT IS TO SAY THE GFS
TENDS TO ERR ON THE FAST SIDE AND INDICATES GREATER PHASING AT
TIMES. THE ECMWF TENDS TO ERR ON THE SLOWER AND OVER-DEVELOPED
SIDE

 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some interesting comments from NOAA tonight re model bias:

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
REGIONAL DETAILS BUT PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE LARGE END OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT AND AS EACH OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION MOVES AWAY
FROM THE CONSENSUS AT SOME TIME INTO THE FORECAST...IT DOES SO IN
A MANNER CONSISTENT WITH KNOWN BIASES. THAT IS TO SAY THE GFS
TENDS TO ERR ON THE FAST SIDE AND INDICATES GREATER PHASING AT
TIMES. THE ECMWF TENDS TO ERR ON THE SLOWER AND OVER-DEVELOPED
SIDE

 

 

And the UKMO tends to .......they didn’t finish .. 

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

And the UKMO tends to .......

Be annoying! Lol I haven’t seen much about UKMO bias. 

[shaky]

What an ecm at 72 hours!!heights look even better than this morning!!

[karlos1983]

UKMO v ECM at +72. Ecm much better 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

What an ecm at 72 hours!!heights look even better than this morning!!

Easy shakester!!!! Critical part is 96 -120

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Be annoying! Lol I haven’t seen much about UKMO bias. 

The UKMO bias is to be correct when showing mild against x model suites and incorrect when showing cold.