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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Both the GFS and UKMO are good in the short to medium term but are consistent with the High sinking southwards, GFS especially so.

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Improved UKMO this morning with pattern a little more amplified and further West.

Main thing to note is the Atlantic, Scandi ridge link up.

UN144-21.GIF?25-05

No way the Atlantic is getting through there in a hurry and always the chance of a 2010 type retrogression to  Greenland later if that pattern develops

No scandi ridge on  GFS same time period though

gfsnh-0-144.png

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10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Improved UKMO this morning with pattern a little more amplified and further West.

Main thing to note is the Atlantic, Scandi ridge link up.

UN144-21.GIF?25-05

No way the Atlantic is getting through there in a hurry and always the chance of a 2010 type retrogression to  Greenland later if that pattern develops

No scandi ridge on  GFS same time period though

gfsnh-0-144.png

Well, deep FI is about to get very interesting 

gfsnh-0-240.png

Sliding low against a developing Scandi block?

EDIT:

Crazy-

gfsnh-0-336.png

Edited by CreweCold

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Yeah finishes with a big fat Greenland high.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Obviously JFF but the main takeaway for me is that the pattern stays amplified.

Edited by Mucka

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah finishes with a big fat Greenland high.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Obviously JFF but the main takeaway for me is that the pattern stays amplified.

I was just going to post the same. Deep FI but stunning nonetheless, and interesting to see the pattern of high pressure to our NW keep repeating even when it sometimes all looks as if it's going to pot. What has happened to the GFS's tendency to default to zonal in FI this year? 

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Oh boy, the bar has been raised this morning.  A few more runs required. Been awhile since we've seen output like this in the nearer time frame. The gfs goes on to show a block of all blocks:D net weather needs to add a in amazement/shock emoji. 

IMG_0054.PNG

IMG_0055.PNG

IMG_0056.PNG

Edited by That ECM

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Well the 00 z runs get the :yahoo: from me!! Bonus here we got snow showers overnight and a dusting !!!

UKMO 00z finally comes into line and looks MILES better this morning- GFS and its ens look fabulous- cold looking mean...come on now EC, something like ukmo OR gfs would be appreciated :D

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This weekend is really about a transition into a new pattern which introduces a colder period with some extensive air frosts the middle of next week and, it has to said, this weekend with extensive icy patches this morning. Today the UK is still under the influence of the deep low to the north east around the Norwegian Basin and thus a cold north westerly wind persists which will be quite strong in the north and west (gales in northern Scotland) accompanied by frequent squally wintry showers with just about everything in the mix. These continue overnight but the low is losing it’s identity and a transient ridge nudges in from the west on Sunday.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.8a0485e3776b2fa848e26260387e2a35.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.2bdaeeec5349e3caec1833e80e95b0c0.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.4f8267a770d420c087d504121f483f56.gif

But by Sunday evening  a front has tracked in from the north west with rain already into N. Ireland and NW Scotland (perhaps some snow on the mountains in northern Scotland) and by Monday 00 has spread south east with the wave depression 998mb north of Scotland. Over the next 24 hours the aforementioned transition is well underway and the low is east of Scotland and the front just clearing the south coast. At the same time the high pressure to the west is ridging north between Greenland and Iceland. This initiates a strong northerly airflow over the UK with squally wintry showers particularly in the north and down the coasts. This continues until Weds 00 as the low fills and tracks SE to Denmark and the winds abate somewhat over the UK, particularly in the south facilitating freezing conditions.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_9.thumb.png.c1aacb5337f8ab632732dab0dfb20ce4.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.d7d5c48e937c0aeadd2f9b3901d5ed09.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.d4d653cae79911211ec48b474c630a56.png

In these northerly regimes there is always the likelihood of small perturbations occurring in the flow and the gfs has one such tracking south early Thursday which could bring some quite inclement weather to the east coast, Not forgetting extensive wintry showers in the north and west either and a pretty severe frost through the spine of the UK

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_22.thumb.png.71c438b5631e0e84e7e2d4638387bcd7.pnggfs_t2min_c_uk2_22.thumb.png.742b1c26de13a0e0f0ecc110e26043e2.png

The cold northerly continues to abate over Friday as a transitional ridge moves in from the west and by midday Saturday temps are back to normal in a light north westerly. I say transitional advisedly as from here things get a tad messy. The Canadian lobe has ejected another trough which tracks quickly east dissecting the ridge whilst the trough to the east has spawned a shallow low in the North Sea. Essentially this would appear to open the door to the Atlantic and relegate the high pressure to a watching brief to the south west but I think best  left here as I don't believe a word of it without substantial support from elsewhere

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.3b76869990a4ea4db8e64d81b826badb.pnggfs_z500a_natl_33.thumb.png.e466c10eaa8457b6010caa104835ac09.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_33.thumb.png.aa8b912f18f312fedc98e39a7ba5b7cd.png

Edited by knocker

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the 00 z runs get the :yahoo: from me!! Bonus here we got snow showers overnight and a dusting !!!

UKMO 00z finally comes into line and looks MILES better this morning- GFS and its ens look fabulous- cold looking mean...come on now EC, something like ukmo OR gfs would be appreciated :D

T96 on ecm. It's going to join the party this morning. Let's hope in future runs none want to leave early.  T120 ecm  and the uk is under 850's of -5 to -9.

IMG_0057.PNG

IMG_0058.PNG

Edited by That ECM

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ECM @ 144 looking pretty decent. Couple sliding under to hopefully prop up the block. Great runs so far ☃️☃️

Plus in comparison to yesterday’s 0z a lot further south too!!!!

Edited by mother nature rocks

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1 minute ago, Joe Watts said:

Hmmmmm.....

ECDF65FF-8C1D-4BC0-86F7-3A78912AC3B7.gif

It wouldn't be right for them all to agree would it? Ecm has had its two cans and wants to go home early. Still cool and frosty but........

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

It wouldn't be right for them all to agree would it? Ecm has had its two cans and wants to go home early. Still cool and frosty but........

Atlantic snookered...

Day 10 will reveal all, first glance at day 9 you'd think west based -NAO but not so sure if it will matter...Think day 10 will be very promising.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Not bad, not bad ; )

ECH1-240.GIF?25-12

Both GFS and ECM are suggesting proper northern blocking now.  As others have said... what could possibly go wrong?

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I see things rather differently this morning. Mid range has energy going over the top and we're left with milder air steadily moving down over us. Perhaps there is a trend for a rather strong Greenland high in FI but sure isn't that purely fantasy land at the moment 

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not bad, not bad ; )

ECH1-240.GIF?25-12

Now then, this WOULD put the UK into the freezer a day or two later!! What a set up, just shane its in FI 

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1 minute ago, Ryerson said:

Both GFS and ECM are suggesting proper northern blocking now.  As others have said... what could possibly go wrong?

Indeed, 10 days is an eon in forecasting terms...plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet. 

I think the thing we have to fear the most is a sudden connect of the trop and strat (most of what we are seeing is trop led)- generally the models will fail to pick this up until fairly close in.

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Fabulous runs this morning it just gets better and better...bitter northerly incoming on EC at day 10 :)

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