Jump to content

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good morning Gang ,Its great to be back reading the Posts on Net weather .My Wife passed away two weeks ago ,she had Pancreatic Cancer which spread ,but enjoyed life since she was diagnosed back in Ap

Good afternoon gang ,its nice to be back reading all the posts again ,although i have been lurking .(Thanks to all friends on here for my much appreciated messages over the loss of my wife recently ,T

So sorry to hear that mate Dont want to clutter up this thread but im sure i speak for everyone in wishing you the very best and hope you will be ok.

Posted Images

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

And @  only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

You know that she is stood behind you:rofl:

ecm at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?24-0ECH0-144.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Great ECM! Now I can go to the supermarket with a smile on my face.

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got everything crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

Edited by Smartie
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

High pressure oriented even better than the GFS. One negative though is that Svalbard low is not yet fully committed to going South, nowhere near as bad as the UKMO situation though. 

 

Edit: turns out it is as bad as the UKMO regarding that low pressure. We need the Svalbard low to join the Scandi low better otherwise HP will break through between the gap.

Edited by Snowy L
Link to post
Share on other sites

Cracking...

Ourselves and n/e france /western low countrys have own own cold pool @144.

Any precip-would almost certainly be of snow/moreso eastern most...

Although at this stage precip open to questions?!!!

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

Not how it is atm. If and when it gets its act together we want the high retrogressing so energy will go underneath.

Edited by joggs
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got evening crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

That's true but there is always a chance the UKMO will join the party tomorrow. If the ECM was going the UKMO route this evening then I would have discounted the gfs.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

I'm no expert but I think this could be very bad for the pv, as these blocks can often be precursors for ssws 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ecm at 168,heights building back up into Greenland and a trough looks like it's going to head south,northeast of the high,this is what the gem did.

ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jonan92 said:

Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

At some things yes but it does tend to overestimate the CAPE & Lifted amounts when forecasting storms. Many times I've seen (for example) up to 700J/Kg with a lift of -3 when it was more like 300J/Kg and a lift of -1 on the GFS. To be fair Arome also does this too the problem is it also affects the precipitation charts with lots of widespread heavy rain showing instead of scattered heavy showers. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

By day 12!

you mean ten?

216,don't know what will happen from there,prob a re-load from the north,but all academic at that stage.:)

ECH1-216.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope to see the russian high becoming more prominent in coming suites...

Holding the trough out-west a little longer...and firming waa to greenland...

Then the uppers-margin would also be favourable for us...

A good ecm 12z....anyway.

Screenshot_2017-11-24-18-50-59.png

Edited by tight isobar
Link to post
Share on other sites

As much as the output from the 12z gfs and ecm, ukmo erm not so much looks cold and seasonal I just feel we could do with a low sliding down towards Iberia to prop it up or a risk reward scenario a low sliding on a nw se axis through the channel into France which could trigger the Siberian express to come our way. Still nevertheless a good day model watching. I'm going to join the 18z in the pub.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...