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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

Edited by karlos1983

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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ooooherrr!  +96! I’ve just shown everyone whys it’s best to just wait LOL :whistling: back to school for me 

0BEDA751-FB5B-4088-95D4-82A3D992CA90.thumb.png.be6f567500b8e37060f29573af7577e3.png

That ain’t no UKMO !!

Wonderful chart :yahoo::cold:

Nothing like ukmet !!

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

And @  only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range 

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I keep having to remind myself these charts are in the reliable timeframe!

Stellar ECM so far and isn't it great not to be chasing Northerly topplers at 300 hours plus!  :cold::santa-emoji:

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Great ECM! Now I can go to the supermarket with a smile on my face.

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

You know that she is stood behind you:rofl:

ecm at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?24-0ECH0-144.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

And @  only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range 

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Great ECM! Now I can go to the supermarket with a smile on my face.

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got everything crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

Edited by Smartie

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High pressure oriented even better than the GFS. One negative though is that Svalbard low is not yet fully committed to going South, nowhere near as bad as the UKMO situation though. 

 

Edit: turns out it is as bad as the UKMO regarding that low pressure. We need the Svalbard low to join the Scandi low better otherwise HP will break through between the gap.

Edited by Snowy L

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Cracking...

Ourselves and n/e france /western low countrys have own own cold pool @144.

Any precip-would almost certainly be of snow/moreso eastern most...

Although at this stage precip open to questions?!!!

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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Am novice, so be kind if I am fantasising - but could that suggest the possibility of a cut-off Iceland high coming up?

image.thumb.png.14a57b1b46577e85acf491c7a68c3696.png

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5 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

Not how it is atm. If and when it gets its act together we want the high retrogressing so energy will go underneath.

Edited by joggs

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If that 144 chart was to verify, I don’t think many netweather members would be unhappy! 

C30C23F1-E2F2-40BD-9AA9-E64E540E53F6.thumb.png.d4cd11d9e2444328716e6f79d69912c1.png5E8EE14F-4DC0-4CBF-B0A5-A729244448E4.thumb.png.8412f60615dd3d0b1e2430d589dde225.png

Apart from this chap of course 

5656017A-67F0-40CB-B143-C0B45F78B12C.thumb.jpeg.0252179a2105039991263627f7dd4382.jpeg

 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got evening crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

That's true but there is always a chance the UKMO will join the party tomorrow. If the ECM was going the UKMO route this evening then I would have discounted the gfs.

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4 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

I'm no expert but I think this could be very bad for the pv, as these blocks can often be precursors for ssws 

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ecm at 168,heights building back up into Greenland and a trough looks like it's going to head south,northeast of the high,this is what the gem did.

ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si

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at 192,we have velociraptor in the NH:rofl:

ECH1-192.GIF?24-0Velociraptor.jpg

trough dropping down from the north:)

Edited by Allseasons-si

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14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ecm at 168,heights building back up into Greenland and a trough looks like it's going to head south,northeast of the high,this is what the gem did.

ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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1 hour ago, Jonan92 said:

Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

At some things yes but it does tend to overestimate the CAPE & Lifted amounts when forecasting storms. Many times I've seen (for example) up to 700J/Kg with a lift of -3 when it was more like 300J/Kg and a lift of -1 on the GFS. To be fair Arome also does this too the problem is it also affects the precipitation charts with lots of widespread heavy rain showing instead of scattered heavy showers. 

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8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

By day 12!

you mean ten?

216,don't know what will happen from there,prob a re-load from the north,but all academic at that stage.:)

ECH1-216.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Hope to see the russian high becoming more prominent in coming suites...

Holding the trough out-west a little longer...and firming waa to greenland...

Then the uppers-margin would also be favourable for us...

A good ecm 12z....anyway.

Screenshot_2017-11-24-18-50-59.png

Edited by tight isobar

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I think one major positive to take from the runs at the moment, in particular the GFS, GEM, and ECM but also the UKMO to some extent, is that these good looking charts for cold lovers are appearing at a relatively short timescale and not deep in FI (like is usually the case).

 

 

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Very quiet for such a good  ECM are members frozen:cold::rofl:

Edited by snowice

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As much as the output from the 12z gfs and ecm, ukmo erm not so much looks cold and seasonal I just feel we could do with a low sliding down towards Iberia to prop it up or a risk reward scenario a low sliding on a nw se axis through the channel into France which could trigger the Siberian express to come our way. Still nevertheless a good day model watching. I'm going to join the 18z in the pub.

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