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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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26 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

UKMO being a respected model, for once you want to disrespect it.

Hopefully not a trend,

I remember once last year all the models seemingly were aboard a cold spell and caution was the order of the day (early December if memory serves me right ) , It ended up being that the UKMO was correct much to everyone’s annoyance , let’s hope its wrong this time. 

Edited by Mark wheeler

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London ens...!!!

12zMT8_London_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar

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8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I remember once last year all the models seemingly were aboard a cold spell and caution was the order of the day (early December if memory serves me right ) , I ended up being that the UKMO was correct much to everyone’s annoyance , let’s hope it wrong this time. 

Indeed Mark. And who can forget the shenanigans back in December 2012: even the Beeb/MetO were on board...the rest, as they say, was history!:D

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It is looking pretty dry going into December a good indication high pressure will be over or near the UK

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.41c597f2aad61d636632353b5cf26525.png

8th and beyond the Op has clearly gone off one one

Edited by Summer Sun

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This anomoly chart at 16 days reminds me of either 2009 or 2010. I recall posting that such an anomoly at such range was extraordinary for s Greenland 

5FE5212B-86FB-4029-9C70-C43ABA9C6653.thumb.jpeg.cecdd6cdf3467e9fe6543a26ae801bec.jpeg

Pretty similar , started November 25 th , look at the fax charts from 2010 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/dec2010

 

 

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Indeed Mark. And who can forget the shenanigans back in December 2012: even the Beeb/MetO were on board...the rest, as they say, was history!:D

Indeed.

No model output should be discounted just because it’s a lone wolf, nothing is ever set in stone in the world of meteorology.

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

London ens...!!!

12zMT8_London_ens.png

 

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

It is looking pretty dry going into December a good indication high pressure will be over or near the UK

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.41c597f2aad61d636632353b5cf26525.png

8 and beyond the Op has clearly gone off one one

Nice to see the ens flatlining around -5,but looking at both of those,the bottom one doesn't look right,do we have a mild ramper in the NW mod team:rofl:

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We should know by +72 ish on the ECM if it’s siding with GFS or UKMO. I’ve crossed the lot! 

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38 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The APERGE does NOT follow the UKMO route.

arpegenh-0-114.png?12

UKMO looking very isolated this evening - does not mean it is wrong though!

Needless to say, critical ECM this evening..

 

Not getting my hopes up until BOM is on board.

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12 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Indeed.

No model output should be discounted just because it’s a lone wolf, nothing is ever set in stone in the world of meteorology.

Indeed,was going to mention this last night

you shouldn't rate a model because it is showing what you want it to show,ie:-cold snow etc.

P.S,can someone keep that ecm on pause,i have to nip out:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We should know by +72 ish on the ECM if it’s siding with GFS or UKMO. I’ve crossed the lot! 

I need to go to the supermarket but I think I will wait 10 minutes to see which direction the ECM takes.:D

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Just my opinion, but it’s not heading the GFS route. Blown that low up similar to UKMO

C711FA0C-A414-4C4A-A0BB-4219D31E055E.thumb.png.0efcaed0d3926c48f7c40334de867f02.png

I am more than happy to be wrong. Won’t be mild either way. 

Edited by karlos1983

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Just my opinion, but it’s not heading the GFS route. Blown that low up similar to UKMO

C711FA0C-A414-4C4A-A0BB-4219D31E055E.thumb.png.0efcaed0d3926c48f7c40334de867f02.png

I am more than happy to be wrong 

It was unlikely to back gfs over ukmo :)

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Ecm similar to gfs at 72 hours!!has the low in the eastern seaboard in pretty much the same location as the gfs aswell!!

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2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

BOM?

Has become an old model:D

not running anymore in other words.

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Gfs 12z

 

Ec-12z.. 

Not hard to see the route of evolution.😉...

the feed is on...

Gfsgfs-0-96.png

EcmECM1-96.gif

ECU1-96.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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What a beauty at 96 hours heights going up and this is following the gfs not the ukmo at the moment!!

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Has become an old model:D

not running anymore in other words.

Oh, I actually thought BOM was a genuine model. I don't know why but it triggered a memory that it was an Australian forecasting simulation? 

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Def like the gfs at 120

ECH1-120.GIF?24-0gfsnh-0-120.png?12

i am seeing double:rofl:

Edited by Allseasons-si

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 12z

 

Ec-12z.. 

Not hard to see the route of evolution.😉

Gfsgfs-0-96.png

EcmECM1-96.gif

Almost identical very good! The EC at day 4 is generally very rarely *catastrophically* wrong I’m dismissing UKMO

Edited by Daniel*

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Beautiful cold uppers screaming down  lovely

IMG_1068.PNG

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