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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Yes ukmo looks ominously like the outsider in the meto text to me..ie the jet sinking the high and the Atlantic moving in thereafter.

Infact the more i look at ukmet 144 the more i dislike it..

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54 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

is ICON the new  NOGAPS! which  was wheeled out  in times of desperation...

Let's not forget the other classics like Arpege and BOM.

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Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

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A little variation as the gfs brings the second low across the south on Tuesday making for a wet morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.afdd8d7e76f4a4ae4240ed54edc0e7b6.png

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

I agree....

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Forecast Image

Amazing positive temperature anomalies in the arctic at the moment, pretty much the entire basin!

No wonder the zonal wind across the NH is set to decrease... 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Just now, Jonan92 said:

Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

It may or may not be the best one we have access to, either way, I doubt its better than the UK met office's in house high res-models.

 

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I think the UKMO is more a deflater than complete sinking of the high because of the upstream pattern at T144hrs.

It manages to get the worst possible outcome , you either want the shortwave absorbed quickly by the next upstream low or energy heading se from it and disrupting.

The UKMO was programmed tonight by a mild ramper who decided to pick the worst phasing outcome!

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GEM showing one of the best possible mid range solutions

gemnh-0-210_ivu0.png

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Cmc/GEM currently the leading mod...

beleive it or not....

so disscount it at your peril!!!

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_24.png

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the UKMO is more a deflater than complete sinking of the high because of the upstream pattern at T144hrs.

It manages to get the worst possible outcome , you either want the shortwave absorbed quickly by the next upstream low or energy heading se from it and disrupting.

The UKMO was programmed tonight by a mild ramper who decided to pick the worst phasing outcome!

Just thinking exactly the same thing Nick - everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong.

I think its a sinker but will happily accept your viewpoint. :)

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cmc/GEM currently the leading mod...

beleive it or not....

so disscount it at your peril!!!

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_24.png

You sure that chart isn't the other way around and low is better?

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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GFS control puts us on the Siberian Express!!

4B24563B-3243-414C-9AB1-9A3016FA39FE.thumb.png.639b9e1474e8494f2063a0ed9f307fb1.png96B62E0A-A993-49EE-9795-23055EFDD567.thumb.png.436bb68134ec10e3004a3c004ae28857.png

choo choo  !!!! Thanks but no thanks 

Edited by karlos1983

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7 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

GEM showing one of the best possible mid range solutions

gemnh-0-210_ivu0.png

That's more like it.

It is the first time I have seen the centre of the high modelled to the North of Scotland.

We need that to have a chance for a continued cold spell.

 We need  the other models to follow suite. 

 MIA

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cmc/GEM currently the leading mod...

beleive it or not....

so disscount it at your peril!!!

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_24.png

Which line is the GEM please?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You sure that chart isn't the other way around and low is better?

Yes exactly my point.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Which line is the GEM please?

Bott-red

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just thinking exactly the same thing Nick - everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong.

I think its a sinker but will happily accept your viewpoint. :)

Lets bet a virtual beer, wine whatever takes your fancy and await the T168hrs which comes out later. The direction of energy coming out of the ne USA is se then bouncing ne with those two more amplified little waves working across Canada and if low heights remain over northern Italy I think we'll see a squashing/ deflation but not a complete write off.

Anyway lets hope that horrid mild ramper hasn't also hacked the ECM!

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Anyway - GEM as an absolute ripper - I'm not normally one to say this but because its the GEM and the pattern is so great, the uppers would be a lot better than shown, anyway the GEFS are an absolute corker as well. 

EDIT : in fact the best GEFS suite of year so far, not sure they will show that in 850 graph form but pattern wise - wow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The APERGE does NOT follow the UKMO route.

arpegenh-0-114.png?12

UKMO looking very isolated this evening - does not mean it is wrong though!

Needless to say, critical ECM this evening..

 

Edited by mulzy

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UKMO being a respected model, for once you want to disrespect it.

Hopefully not a trend,

Edited by Had Worse

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20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cmc/GEM currently the leading mod...

beleive it or not....

so disscount it at your peril!!!

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_24.png

Hi.

Is this for 24hours forecast? As that’s a very small error rate.

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Check out the mean on the gefs @384 hrs out:bomb::shok::cold::D

gensnh-21-1-384.png?12

the control run at the end

gensnh-0-1-384.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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