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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

is ICON the new  NOGAPS! which  was wheeled out  in times of desperation...

ICON is often a pretty good version of ecm out to day 6/7. Not always though.

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Good start to the 12z gfs!!low in the eastern states more west and better amplification around greenland!!looks like the 00z run!!

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Kicking off with the 12z, interesting feature developing for Suunday/Monday to the west of Ireland at +78hr, moving SE.

image.thumb.png.bab786717a0b42c9a230f7dd84d60c32.png

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GFS 12z already much better than very progressive 06z.

gfsnh-0-78.png?12

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I feel a boom coming early on better heights in to the Arctic.:D

gfsnh-0-78.png

Edited by booferking

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GFS looking better early on, better WAA than the 06z at the same time frame. The low more elongated between Canada and Greenland. 

lets see where we end up. 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ICON is often a pretty good version of ecm out to day 6/7. Not always though.

Oh thank you BA - that's something to bear in mind - Sorry ICON! and no pressure....

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6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z already much better than very progressive 06z.

gfsnh-0-78.png?12

Was just about to say GFS has things bit further west and ridge is better aligned to.

Although I'd rather the lower heights go under the block that but pressure to our south and southeast much lower so that's another positive.

Im really starting to see similar developments to winter 2009/2010.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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No sign of that short wave Deeping of eastern sea board which could sink the high much better 12z

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good start to the 12z gfs!!low in the eastern states more west and better amplification around greenland!!looks like the 00z run!!

It doesn't look like the 00z run. In that run the high was tilted to towards Canada, in this run the lines are quite straight, it's similar to the 06z run but more amplified

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

I feel a boom coming early on on better heights in to the Arctic.:D

gfsnh-0-78.png

That's great news...I'll not need to wheel-out the BOM yet, then!:drunk-emoji:

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The really cold uppers starting to spread south across the UK, Scotland into some frigid air by +108

0DEF9906-038C-4979-9D10-D8D533BF2961.thumb.png.7e4a44fe8b0ea17a70d546dafbbbf952.png7CE06BE7-E95A-4A4D-A747-EB888E5934E5.thumb.png.f50be71ad33bde3dfdb19c48247b7f5d.png

A few kinks in the isobars which means precip is likely!! Of snow of course :D

Edited by karlos1983

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UKMO ok, but makes a bigger deal of that low.

+72

751AE13D-7706-4C9D-9566-318B65B806AB.thumb.gif.69f58316b4c999baf85262cf1107c95e.gif

+96, certainly not warm 

BB5AC69D-9CE6-47A9-9D45-1DA25B3F61F1.thumb.gif.64fcbebb01cf72dbcb60e78cf6cd755c.gif

Meanwhile the GFS is a peach

7AF2066F-E13A-4179-B0E0-707C06685483.thumb.png.9c457bdcafd2f8beac23d14104bcd5f3.png9408CC4F-98E1-4563-97BB-5A967798EB81.thumb.png.fbbcf434176abf04639b1eb34fbe81b4.png

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Vortex sucker punch what a block.

gfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.9981fa44d30a3d91fa798eac5181e266.png

Possible easterly moving forwards with better European cooling.

 

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GFS 12Z                                                    06Z
GFSOPEU12_132_1.pngGFSOPEU06_138_1.png

Bit of an improvement with the GFS, slightly less energy going out of the E of Canada. May improve things later would be good to see the UKMO on board. That makes a much bigger deal out of the low... may chop and change for quite a while given this is a region where uncertainties are often higher.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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UN144-21.GIF?24-17 UW144-21.GIF?24-17
UKMO, to the naughty corner you go. The way it shoots that secondary low NNE instead of leaving it to the SW of the ridge is most unpleasant - and a warning note for those getting too involved with GFS. As much as that second dip in the trough could perhaps allow the ridge to back west again, we do need a good ECM run this evening.

Edited by Singularity

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

UN144-21.GIF?24-17
UKMO, to the naughty corner you go.

Verifies much better than the GFS though, I think this will be closer to the mark, with the GFS 24 hours behind as ever.

Still very cold though, but dry.

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Gfs 12z begining' to make much less of an' issue bring the colder air in on 12z..

Has a well defined nw/slant on the ridge...

Aiding deeper 850s impacts to the uk. .

Ukmo still wondering off to a varied evolution!!...

gfs-1-156.png

Edited by tight isobar

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GFSOPEU12_174_1.png
Lets hope this GFS is onto something, energy heading south and plenty of WAA to support a build of pressure over Greenland yet again.

Fingers crossed for a good ECM later.

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Gfs12z is beautiful...ukmeto not on the same planet tho unfortunately...why oh why can we not get cross model agreement just once :nonono:

I wouldnt get too hung up looking at GFS 12z personally...as tempting as it is !:cold:

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs12z is beautiful...ukmeto not on the same planet tho unfortunately...why oh why can we not get cross model agreement just once :nonono:

I wouldnt get too hung up looking at GFS 12z personally...as tempting as it is !:cold:

 

Im hopong the GFS is better at handling the upstream, after all it’s on its doorstep. 

Shall be off to look at the discussions later.

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Well the gfs 12z so far is a cracker of a run. :cold:. But think we should take it with a huge ton of grit. Seems like the ukmo is going off on a different coarse although still cold. Let’s see what the ecm says later. Great model watching so early in the season though.:D

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We have a mild sector...

gfs-1-150.png?12

good and bad news - good news because it will mean a decent front that is probably snow-bearing for many - bad news because it will be rain in the "mild sector"

UKMO looks shaky at T144 - but don't forget some of ensembles today saw a temporary slight flattening of the pattern as some energy went over the top, then ridging established once again afterwards.

 

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