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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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15 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Both EPS and GEFS 00z and 06z near identical at T360 w/r/t 10hPa temps and heights, suggesting zonal winds becoming very light and close to technical warming. Warming signal at 50hPa working its way up. 

I asked Ian f in a tweet what glosea was seeing up there - past few winters it has offered best guidance. No reply as yet! 

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graphe3_1000_243_25___.gifgraphe3_1000_235_28___.gif

Ensembles are starting to swing away to a less cold solution. 

Added the 0z in

Edited by frosty ground
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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe3_1000_243_25___.gifgraphe3_1000_243_25___.gif

Ensembles are starting to swing away to a less cold solution. 

Well that’ll teach me to open my big mouth. I’m pretty shocked at that! 

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22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can we avoid posting eps global data after day 10 ?  I am a little concerned that Ecmwf may decide to remind their clients that this should not be reproduced and that could result in the Icelandic data becoming unavailable - the clusters are a boon for us !

It's the same data as the clusters, which is posted here all the time. And it's Maue charts, which are reproduced all over the place. I think I have said this before but given that Maue charts are free, they can be reproduced anyway. I doubt the Icelandic data will be stopped, because I'd doubt many people use it anyway.

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More of a sinking high today rather then a Greenland high. The culprit is an area of low pressure exiting NE Canada at T72, it heads NNE and is forecast to intensify more then it did in yesterdays runs:

UKMO                                                        ECM                                                       GFS
UKMOPEU00_72_1.pngECMOPEU00_72_1.pngGFSOPEU06_72_1.png

The consequence of this is that the block is put under more pressure and the high doesn't really build over Greenland. Unfortunately it is a feature on all runs now so it's going to have a role.

For things to improve there we need the build of pressure over Greenland to be stronger then forecast at T96. Alternatively a link with the arctic high, a later attempt at Greenland ridging or a build of heights over Scandi could prolong the colder air. All still possibilities at this point despite added short term complications.

Though I can understand why some are a bit disappointed.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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SNOWCON 3! Time to put the teddies on standby?:shok:

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ECM clusters are still good, variations of the theme but the overall theme remains blocked & cold across the UK. UKMO at 144 is good, following frames would probably show the high building Northwards thanks to the Atlantic/Arctic high link up.

GLOSEA according to Ian F is predicting a blocked pattern right through to mid-December combined with the EC ensembles I think the Met are expecting things to remain blocked.

The GFS 00z was good, very blocked and cold similar to the ECM/UKMO, it seems the 06z has gone off on one, though it can't be completely discounted because the GFS Ensembles do have some support for it, and certainly see a less cold trend into the beginning of December now where previously it showed cold.

But, if the GFS op is struggling with the shortwave energy (as per usual) then I'm not sure how much faith can be put into the lower resolution ensembles. 

Nothing to worry about just yet, but we don't want to see the UKMO/ECM changing with the 12z runs, we're talking changes at just 72hrs away, there's very little wiggle room now. Either the GFS will backtrack along with it's ensemble suite, or the UKMO/ECM will backtrack.

GEM.thumb.png.22c1f72289ce4871c22d5b9036f26753.png

GEM 00z was also very good. 

So, everything VS the GFS.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Has to be said the 00z is a better ensemble suit than the 12z longer term,bigger cluster going with colder 2m Temps

CDC6F712-1C53-4E1D-A5E8-8A7E535AEDB7.gif.613eec2f04f1b11e0f45faaed75b64ec.thumb.gif.40aff3e5299058aceae4d8fb99275437.gif5a180feb10c78_ens00z24th.thumb.gif.472b7f1ff65dab98fc848173918b0e45.gif

Whether this is because of High pressure being closer to us or a more direct northerly flow I guess remains to be seen 

Edited by karlos1983
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Let's please keep banter/hopes to the correct threads, Thanks ☺

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35 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

It's the same data as the clusters, which is posted here all the time. And it's Maue charts, which are reproduced all over the place. I think I have said this before but given that Maue charts are free, they can be reproduced anyway. I doubt the Icelandic data will be stopped, because I'd doubt many people use it anyway.

The clusters are very specific to the n Atlantic so less of a concern to Ecmwf

Lets not be naive here - if someone is paying a lot of money for data and they see it being reproduced for free use then eventually they are going to complain. Maue has his own agenda at the moment after his split with weatherbell. 

The more you poke something, the more you risk a response.

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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has to be said the 00z is a better ensemble suit than the 12z longer term,bigger cluster going with colder 2m Temps

CDC6F712-1C53-4E1D-A5E8-8A7E535AEDB7.gif.613eec2f04f1b11e0f45faaed75b64ec.thumb.gif.40aff3e5299058aceae4d8fb99275437.gif5a180feb10c78_ens00z24th.thumb.gif.472b7f1ff65dab98fc848173918b0e45.gif

Whether this is because of High pressure being closer to us or a more direct northerly flow I guess remains to be seen 

Ec 0z mild outlier :rofl:

And in keeping with the Ec ens for London the meto update is an upgrade....rest my beating heart.:rofl:

Edited by northwestsnow
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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The clusters are very specific to the n Atlantic so less of a concern to Ecmwf

Lets not be naive here - if someone is paying a lot of money for data and they see it being reproduced for free use then eventually they are going to complain. Maue has his own agenda at the moment after his split with weatherbell. 

The more you poke something, the more you risk a response.

Maue specifically said that anyone can reproduce his charts. I am sure that he consulted EC before saying that out public. Anyway it's all available for you or anyone else to use...:)

Anyway sorry for the OT....

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec 0z mild outlier :rofl:

And in keeping with the Ec ens for London the meto update is an upgrade....rest my beating heart.:rofl:

To be honest, it's about as good as coldies could hope for with what sounds like being a generally meridional pattern with winds predominantly between nw'ly / ne'ly drawing polar / arctic maritime air down across the uk with wintry ppn including snow, especially across hills and further north plus plenty of frosts and icy patches..great model watching..for coldies!;):santa-emoji:I love the words blocked and cold:drinks:

Edited by Frosty.
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Huge respect to @Tamara  above although I do feel like Marlin being given instructions by Squirt, on the exit strategy of the EAC!

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The clusters are very specific to the n Atlantic so less of a concern to Ecmwf

Lets not be naive here - if someone is paying a lot of money for data and they see it being reproduced for free use then eventually they are going to complain. Maue has his own agenda at the moment after his split with weatherbell. 

The more you poke something, the more you risk a response.

This is a point I've thought a lot about.

I think the brunnur.vedur.is site is probably safe to post from because I would imagine it is owned by the Icelandic Met Office so they must have paid ECMWF for specific rights to reproduce charts relating to Iceland (which fortunately just about covers the UK in some instances)

However, the weather.us site (I think this is the source of the chart BlueArmy refers to) seems to have every little last bit of ECM data if you search around hard enough, and it is hard to see where the licence has come from to do this. I have kind of made a conscious decision not to post images from this site except on the very odd occasion (which has been an exercise in self-control at the moment it is very tempting to post several ensemble member charts with copious amounts of snow for differing parts of the UK!!) because I too am worried about losing what we have. It's great fun to have it, I don't expect it to last forever but I'd like not to be reason why we lose access! So I will continue posting commentaries from weather.us but perhaps I won't even post any charts from it anymore, for these reasons. It's all easy enough for anyone to check!

@Snowy Hibbo just seen your post too, well I am surprised to hear he was given permission to publish his charts. Why would anyone pay them for access anymore? I wonder what Meteociel would make of that?

Edited by Man With Beard
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I certainly don't see a straightforward path to sustained cold nirvana either Tamara as this is the uk and nothing involving cold is straightforward. . great post as usual by the way:D

What I do see is more wintry potential at this time of year compared to recent years with at least some cold outbreaks of polar / arctic maritime and perhaps continental arctic too with more in the way of cold air than mild..this coldie finds the latest models / update from Exeter very encouraging compared to the usual relentless mild dross the uk  gets!:cold::santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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In a way, I would not mind a toppling high in respect it could bring some proper winter weather in the form of fog and frost aslong as it topples quickly and remains firm over the UK. As it happens, the models have favoured more on the placement of the Svalbard shortwave so more colder air does threaten to get pulled further Southwards but another spoiler is the the reluctance by the ECM and GFS to fully clear the trigger low that will cross the UK during Mondayand if this happens, the colder air struggles to make it to eastern areas and its likely to be cloudier and wet in eastern areas rather bright, colder and more showery weather like the UKMO shows.

 

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59 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is a point I've thought a lot about.

I think the brunnur.vedur.is site is probably safe to post from because I would imagine it is owned by the Icelandic Met Office so they must have paid ECMWF for specific rights to reproduce charts relating to Iceland (which fortunately just about covers the UK in some instances)

However, the weather.us site (I think this is the source of the chart BlueArmy refers to) seems to have every little last bit of ECM data if you search around hard enough, and it is hard to see where the licence has come from to do this. I have kind of made a conscious decision not to post images from this site except on the very odd occasion (which has been an exercise in self-control at the moment it is very tempting to post several ensemble member charts with copious amounts of snow for differing parts of the UK!!) because I too am worried about losing what we have. It's great fun to have it, I don't expect it to last forever but I'd like not to be reason why we lose access! So I will continue posting commentaries from weather.us but perhaps I won't even post any charts from it anymore, for these reasons. It's all easy enough for anyone to check!

@Snowy Hibbo just seen your post too, well I am surprised to hear he was given permission to publish his charts. Why would anyone pay them for access anymore? I wonder what Meteociel would make of that?

What I find amazing is they (weather.us) openly state on twitter "free ECMWF" charts and link directly to the website where all the data is. Surely ECMWF HQ aren't naive enough to not know that this a a global Christmas present? I won't post any of the charts for same reasons. Personally I hope the free access lasts. If it is only allowed for the US, it wouldn't be to difficult for them to make it hard for anyone outside the US to access all areas, much like the BBC if you are abroad. 

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To close the discussion on weather.us, its possible that this is a ‘free period’ which will expire at some point soon,  after which  it will go behind a paywall. Whilst the data is currently freely available I’m surprised that dr maue has said its freely available for reproduction. 

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ICON 6z

iconnh-0-102_vgx1.png

ICON 12z

iconnh-0-96_dit5.png

Stronger and better aligned heights I would say

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is ICON the new  NOGAPS! which  was wheeled out  in times of desperation...

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Absolutely no sign of a return to anything mild on the GEFS 6z mean which shows a cold and showery N'ly airflow for most of next week with wintry showers and frosty nights followed by high pressure becoming more influential from the west with plenty of crisp bright chilly days followed by overnight frosts and probable fog as winds become generally lighter..there is the possibility that high pressure will stay out to the west in mid  atlantic ridging north to greenland with lower heights persisting to the east / northeast with reloads of polar / arctic air..:cold::).

Edited by Frosty.
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