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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-210.png?6
Timber..... New trend or Outlier?

That was always going to happen this run could see it a mile off big round high sinking.

Edited by booferking

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Since when do gfs fl charts ever verify,whatever they are showing.Looks good in the reliable timeframe

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Just now, booferking said:

That was always going to happen this run could see it a mile of big round high sinking.

Disappointing run and as the UKMO 168 chart that was posted earlier, it also has a lot of energy starting to get over the high. Let's hope it is not a new trend if we want a long lasting cold spell.

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Certainly enough to make me a little nervous. Only a little bit mind. Important 12zs later.

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9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-210.png?6
Timber..... New trend or Outlier?

all coldies live in hope that it will stay cold/snow for christmas but there will always be a beginning and end to everything with cold spells no exception so lets enjoy this upcoming cold while its here

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As GFS has started to hint the Atlantic polar high is sinking southwards It occurred to me that as high pressure anti cyclones are denser air masses  that the planet want to draw them towards the equator due to the spin of the planet  and centrifugal force outside of that what other anchoring forces are there that would make it want to sit at the pole besides SSW. Just a thought

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EC clusters this morning still pretty steady on the cold theme. By D9, we can still see that block in the Atlantic on all clusters, with the doubts mainly over how close/far the block is from the UK (and therefore whether it is cold/dry or cold/ with precipitation)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112400_216.

By D12, ridging is still preferred in the Atlantic - weakening quickly on clusters 2/3 (but uncertain whether energy will go over or under the block), whilst the control cluster sees a renewed push by the ridge for Greenland, with potentially wintry results:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112400_288.

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Disappointing run and as the UKMO 168 chart that was posted earlier, it also has a lot of energy starting to get over the high. Let's hope it is not a new trend if we want a long lasting cold spell.

There is a potential double whammy there because the attempt to undercut could leave a cut off low down there which could interfere with our ridge being able to retrogress to the next amplification off the eastern seaboard. One to watch 

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Well we get a proper stonking northerly in FI on the GFS 6z . 

IMG_0672.PNG

IMG_0673.PNG

IMG_0674.PNG

IMG_0675.PNG

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On the plus side, the 6z is promising stratospherically. 

Canadian warming in FI?

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

On the plus side, the 6z is promising stratospherically. 

Canadian warming in FI?

Yes that certainly would be the cherry on the top as we head into winter proper. All we need to do is get it closer :smile:

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.07b033f87b883bf2c53fad387b1c01e5.png

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17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters this morning still pretty steady on the cold theme. By D9, we can still see that block in the Atlantic on all clusters, with the doubts mainly over how close/far the block is from the UK (and therefore whether it is cold/dry or cold/ with precipitation)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112400_216.

By D12, ridging is still preferred in the Atlantic - weakening quickly on clusters 2/3 (but uncertain whether energy will go over or under the block), whilst the control cluster sees a renewed push by the ridge for Greenland, with potentially wintry results:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112400_288.

The control cluster is something else in the extended period after a pull back of the sceuro trough in the 8/10 day 

still plenty of water to go under the bridge yet

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32 minutes ago, karyo said:

Disappointing run and as the UKMO 168 chart that was posted earlier, it also has a lot of energy starting to get over the high. Let's hope it is not a new trend if we want a long lasting cold spell.

Not necessarily a major cause for concern though, karyo...it all depends in which direction the 'energy' travels, I think? It could, as happened in early 1979, send a depression southeastwards into the southern North Sea, and allow cold air to very quickly reassert itself...?

I am, I admit, thinking very wishfully!:D:santa-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes that certainly would be the cherry on the top as we head into winter proper. All we need to do is get it closer :smile:

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.07b033f87b883bf2c53fad387b1c01e5.png

These Asian ‘warmings’ have been showing for some time and have yet to get verify on ensuing runs. Given that they are probably a response to trop induced waves in the 7/10 day period it’s no surprise that there is no consistency!!

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Delete

wrong darn chart :oops:Meteociel a bit buggy as it is mixing up 00z & 06z. :cc_confused: My cache i think was the issue. 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not necessarily a major cause for concern though, karyo...it all depends in which direction the 'energy' travels, I think? It could, as happened in early 1979, send a depression southeastwards into the southern North Sea, and allow cold air to very quickly reassert itself...?

I am, I admit, thinking very wishfully!:D:santa-emoji:

Nothing wrong with that Ed! :D

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13 minutes ago, karyo said:

On the plus side, the 6z is promising stratospherically. 

Canadian warming in FI?

A Canadian strat warming event is absolutely a possibility as heat transportation from the tropics continue to work on the vortex.

The models are throwing out some exceptional charts even if UK has a high pressure topple over the UK the distribution of vortex's segments don't look like there in a hurry to move back home to Greenland.

Anyway let's see where this all goes perhaps even a Greenland to Scandinavia block at some point as the vortex is stretched and pulled mostly over our side of the pole.

Interesting active hurricane season plus east QBO and low solar activity coupled with higher than normal volcanic activity all much better than recent years that's for sure.

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London T2 now show mean around 3.5c end week 2 - remember something similar early Dec  last year and it turned out that the mild stragglers were right !!

0EF8305B-D2E0-49C1-B1B7-EE312F8A6F76.thumb.jpeg.c4b76dbe4904d9debe97856ea64a8478.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy
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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

A Canadian strat warming event is absolutely a possibility as heat transportation from the tropics continue to work on the vortex.

The models are throwing out some exceptional charts even if UK has a high pressure topple over the UK the distribution of vortex's segments don't look like there in a hurry to move back home to Greenland.

Anyway let's see where this all goes perhaps even a Greenland to Scandinavia block at some point as the vortex is stretched and pulled mostly over our side of the pole.

Interesting active hurricane season plus east QBO and low solar activity coupled with higher than normal volcanic activity all much better than recent years that's for sure.

Sounds good Mr E!

The only thing I don't see is the higher than normal volcanic activity?

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Just now, bluearmy said:

London T2 now show mean around 3c end week 2 - remember something similar early Dec  last year and it turned out that the mild stragglers were right !!

0EF8305B-D2E0-49C1-B1B7-EE312F8A6F76.thumb.jpeg.c4b76dbe4904d9debe97856ea64a8478.jpeg

Lets not dwell on the past BA :nonono: although i am a little bit scared of that! 

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I realise the clusters have been posted, but just adding some points to the EPS....

IMG_2918.thumb.PNG.19b4fc299e8d347f8d6b1373b012e671.PNG

10 day EPS mean

IMG_2920.thumb.PNG.c453d653747e9186e13af8fc5647b98c.PNG

14.5 day EPS mean

What intrigues me is the weakening Greenland high and the general high lat blocking continuity. Also the Azores low completely goes in 4.5 days and the Euro trough weakens too. However you can see as the Greenland high weakens, the Euro trough takes more control of UK weather by the end of the run. 

Globally the weakening of the -EPO also interests me, but its effect on the UK isn't as important. Anyway my focus is on the high latitude blocking, which should induce a -AO, similar to the EC46 outlook I posted not a long time ago. Will be interesting to see if we get the strat to weaken, as long range GFS says.

 

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just go down the slide will you for crying out loud!!

slide.thumb.gif.e910cf9bedb23ede7b6565f98c5052ad.gif

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5 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

I realise the clusters have been posted, but just adding some points to the EPS....

IMG_2918.thumb.PNG.19b4fc299e8d347f8d6b1373b012e671.PNG

10 day EPS mean

 

Can we avoid posting eps global data after day 10 ?  I am a little concerned that Ecmwf may decide to remind their clients that this should not be reproduced and that could result in the Icelandic data becoming unavailable - the clusters are a boon for us !

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