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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Just now, Jonan92 said:

I think the icelandic low will bridge with the one west of Greenland

Could phase off the heights as you say

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More heights into the pole on this run,Siberian hp cell growing and buckling the trough to the north of the BI,i suspect a link up pretty soon with both the hp cells,one in the polar regions and Siberia

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

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I wouldn't look much further as the toys will be flying shortly until tomorrow i say Jeff splendid.:D

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Pain in the ####..

This feature is just meandering around like a drunken gate crasher....

 

gfs-0-162.png

Screenshot_2017-11-23-22-16-08.png

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A brilliant days model watching regardless of how the 18z pans out!

Bring on the proper winter weather and a world away from the last few years in the run up to Christmas!  :cold:

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All getting a bit messy at 168, this run could go anywhere 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

The main thing is that the 0-120hr period is looking excellent for getting us to the launch pad!

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So it looks as though a little shortwave cuts off the link of heights to Greenland but that could easily disappear in the next run, upto T120 its fantastic :)

The 18z also really increases the blocking over the arctic later on compared to the 12z at the same time. Here are two charts at T186:

18z                                                                                           12z
GFSOPNH18_186_1.png                                 GFSOPNH12_192_1.png

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I say wait...again,there are hp cells left,right and center...north of us,don't forget this:D

gfsnh-0-186.png?18DPU16znXUAAMQU6.thumb.jpg.6a981270608cd9917ec335b6c945643c.jpg

too quick to throw the towel in i would say:nonono:

source.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Well the 18z is a total mess past 144 but something we have to consider is where the jet may break through if the blocking isnt quite as strong in the atlantic!

At least on the 18z at 192 it snatches victory again from the jaws of defeat but lets not have any dramas this time around...

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Do we want to look at the latest EC Monthly? It hasn't been doing too bad recently...

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017112300_02

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017112300_04

D4-D18 dominated by Atlantic heights

After that, a bit more up in the air (but a little futile looking that far ahead)

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Repeat always repeat is the mantra of the 18z. It is showing colder uppers now and there has been a hint of sliding lows for a while now. 

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Icelandic site just updated the clusters now, here they are - not bad at all.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112312_360.

 

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Do we want to look at the latest EC Monthly? It hasn't been doing too bad recently...

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017112300_02

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017112300_04

D4-D18 dominated by Atlantic heights

After that, a bit more up in the air (but a little futile looking that far ahead)

Have you got a link to that monthly please?

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If your looking for deep surface cold challenging for sub -15c then look no further than central scotland!

IMG_1320.thumb.PNG.49f163a2ddf63c6c13d5cdfbdbc4e142.PNG

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The gfs op, despite looking messy in the mid term is more credible later on as it regains a mid Atlantic ridge and also an aleutian ridge. 

And then it goes doolally

Edited by bluearmy

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs op, despite looking messy in the mid term is more credible later on as it regains a mid Atlantic ridge and also an aleutian ridge. 

It's going all in on the vortex too, signature/ anomalous wave driving if that verified..

Capturealsh.PNG

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Not often I comment on GFS 18z at the long range, but interesting to note it going for an undercut situation, with energy all going into the southern arm of the jet, and hence a feed of very cold air from the east/northeast. All quite plausible, if we see shortwave activity scupper any sustained mid atlantic high/arctic high link up, instead a toppler of sorts occuring but then heights propped up by low heights to the south, and all the while the cold building to the NE, has then an easy ride of injecting its energy our way.

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4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

It's going all in on the vortex too, signature/ anomalous wave driving if that verified..

Capturealsh.PNG

Certainly making some noise....

Pv is under some serious drivers!!!

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sibHigh_AltLow.png

Not as good as current twitter from Dr Ventrice but orginal mapping of both the teleconnections..

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EPS is very impressive for Western Europe you would be hard pressed to get anything better at this time of year, it warms the cockles of my heart. That Cornish rodents heart however must be flatlining... :rolleyes:

33EE372B-AEF0-4715-AB53-0015DFEB7CE4.thumb.jpeg.20f2586213983d9229a7bf9062191d4c.jpeg6CDBCA0F-5C3F-47F5-ABA2-E66FEBC891E0.thumb.jpeg.3b354ad9754c8bc7d6e6a016c71c94b5.jpeg

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Not a great set of ensembles compared to previous runs

London

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.thumb.gif.853e2ddd9d8f10bad7f395675ab60b57.gif

somewhere in Scotland - Op definitely a cold outlier

graphe6_1000___-3.39622641509_57.1255060729_.thumb.gif.ed99f511cf36e0268e2e6e915859131a.gif

- hopefully not a trend -

 

Edited by swilliam

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