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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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A perfect position...

Just need to see ecm gaining on the uppers...

The jet pushed way south....

A tap in to colder air will depend where ec gets the evolvement to fruition.

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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I've seen worse charts  Atlantic blocked can heights get to the pole?

IMG_1067.PNG

Edited by weirpig
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Where'd most of you go?

ECM about three quarters GFS one quarter UKMO at +144 so very nice indeed at least for the mid-term :)

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Hopefully that low over Scandi can drop south and pull in the colder uppers 

A00EE327-0985-429D-A386-5218E4BD5CDB.thumb.png.ef08b2b64b8341218286843e7301ce91.png48252E26-1099-4DBB-9A12-733D7E332576.thumb.png.dbc1cb0546db33bd9c32ae4f07258a05.png

Only just got to see the UKMO and GFZ runs. GFS is draw droppingly good, UKMO nice! Happy days !

Edited by karlos1983
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Greedy high about to link with Arctic high, then development a cold NE flow looking at it - could be better than the GFS!! We shall see v shortly I guess 

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ECM 192 blocking is still holding strong-although arctic high allignment doesnt look  correct to me...

All good though !

IMG_1317.thumb.PNG.77e6e3f5b38c44ab58d527278f401051.PNG

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Good ECM so far, key moment coming up with whether some energy goes se at day 9.

If you get that under the block then you lock in the cold.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 blocking is still holding strong-although arctic high allignment doesnt look  correct to me...

All good though !

IMG_1317.thumb.PNG.77e6e3f5b38c44ab58d527278f401051.PNG

So we're back to ECM teasing an omega block again... If there's going to be momentum from the west, let it divert southeast :)

Where GFS went awry was when it cut off a LP around this time rather than keeping the negative tilted trough.

 

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sceuro trough held in place by w Russian block which was much further east on 00z run. suspect the behaviour of the arctic ridge is also causing variances. whilst its fun to look at the ops post days 6/7, its pretty doubtful they will verify as shown with obvious consequences for surface conditions in nw europe.

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Its just typical when the models continue to produce good set ups on paper only to produce very underwhelming uppers with the exception of the GFS which may have a cold bias(although conversely maybe the ECM got a slight warm bias?) anyways. Trend is for the UK to be on the cold side of the jet but  I've seen more than enough to suggest that snowfall will be minimal and most places will likely too see rain showers rather than anything too wintry, just seems a waste too me.and i'm sure the nolvety of a cold northerly wind with rain showers will wear off quickly. Imo, we are paying the price for not having a settled PV before it get attacked by warmer air from the middle latitudes, if Svalbard and surrounding regions were colder than they are, then its a different story.

If anything, the most likely time where snow to levels could occur is tomorrow across some western areas and during Saturday also. Next week at least for the first part at the moment just does not look cold enough too me and frost could well be prevented due to the strength of the wind

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12 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

Jaw droppingly or draw droppingly? Hopefully not *that* good

Lol it’s been a long day :lazy::oops:

RE the GFS I don’t think I could Jaw a better chart myself 

Edited by karlos1983
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Ecm 12z looks darn good to me, good as in cold with wintry ppn  and night frosts / ice..Not good if you love mild mush..I'm very happy with this and the earlier Gfs run..a cold end to autumn / start of winter..tar very much!:D :cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Vile day in the east here, and here most likely, wet and feeling miserable

ECM1-144.GIF?23-0

 

I think for most, that chart will produce patchy cloud and sunshine with convective showers in the very far SW and up in the North and North East with perhaps a more band of cloud and some rain close to the East coast due to a weather front, I think the uppers and thicknesses are  low enough to produce convective showers off the sea rather than grey skies though(aslong as there is no fronts within the flow) so at least it won't be one of those infamous dull and cold days..

The charts kind of remind of February 2005, good cold set ups on paper, really underwhelming upper air temps due to svalbard region just being so warm compared to normal. A Northerly at the end of November should be cold enough for snow showers but this one unfortunately is not and apart from that one GFS run this afternoon, none of the outputs have suggested snowfall will be a feature in the weather for next week.

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Is ECM days 9+10 no good because no one has posted it :( ? 

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Anyone know why the cold uppers aren't flowing south, I'm pretty sure its not warm SST anomalies as you would think they would move south but just moderated, they are just sitting there, up until now you could see why they aren't moving south, the alignment isn't quite right on previous runs or there are shortwaves cutting off the flow early but its like they are just sitting there on this run, there looks to be continuing unabated WAA up the West of Greenland and looks to me like there are no spoilers in the last few frames?

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Does anyone find the loss of pressure in the atlantic  on ecm between 192-240 hrs very odd and a bit sudden? ??

Edited by swfc

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Some interesting synoptics on show from the ECM but not the deeper cold to tap into.

That might change though because there are bound to be more changes and it might be possible to get a lobe of colder air heading sw. The PV throughout shows no inclination to set up over Greenland which is very good news for coldies.

Its hard to be too picky given what could have been on offer.

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The ecm is bringing the wave and front in rather quicker than the previous run and a tad further north so by Monday 00 Heavy rain is into north west Scotland. Twelve hours later  the low is adjacent to south west Norway with the UK in a fairly well mixed northerly airstream.

Over the next 24 hours the low hangs around the southern tip of Norway as the high pressure amplifies to the west so the UK remains in the northerly with wintry showers in Scotland and around the coasts albeit the temps are not  that much below average.

Over the next 48 hours (until Thursday midday) the high pressure moves a little north towards Iceland and ridges somewhat north east at the same time.  This forces the low to the east SW down the North Sea as it loses it’s identity. This results in the UK coming under dual airflows, north easterly in the circulation of the HP  and ENE from the circulation of the low pressure area in south east Europe. This transition would likely focus the wintry showers to the north of Scotland and the east coast of Britain. Temps remaining below average but not excessively so.

So a pretty good output all things considered.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.723d9596c7bd8e68299103b65de068c2.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.e93ddddfe57356535c7d30b805257a55.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.bea4e60b9341275e63679b244213cb60.png

Edited by knocker
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No complaints from me having endured 13 / 14c this week..the Ecm 12z turns into a cold run with a nice reload towards the end and I see no reason why it can't upgrade the cold on subsequent runs as per gfs. This is a nicely evolving situation for netweather coldies!:D:cold:

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winteriscoming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone know why the cold uppers aren't flowing south, I'm pretty sure its not warm SST anomalies as you would think they would move south but just moderated, they are just sitting there, up until now you could see why they aren't moving south, the alignment isn't quite right on previous runs or there are shortwaves cutting off the flow early but its like they are just sitting there on this run, there looks to be continuing unabated WAA up the West of Greenland and looks to me like there are no spoilers in the last few frames?

The shortwave over Svalbard is one culprit I feel but also the lack of any real deep cold up there anywhere(uppers are barely even touching -20 up there) is playing a part here, I have seen colder WNW'ly flows being forecast than this Northerly but maybe climate change is playing a part because its hard to imagine a similar set up would produce uppers betwen -4 and -6 only. in the 70's and 80's as the PV was stronger back then. Who knows though.

Edited by Geordiesnow
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