Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

Recommended Posts

The 18z GEFS look exceptional for November

Another amazing day of chart outputs (earlier GFS runs excepting),

I suppose it's reasonable to anticipate spanners being tossed into the mix from here on in, but wouldn't it be nice if, for once, it didn't!?

When an Arctic high is in play, the jackpot is on offer. All options are on the table.

We deserve a bit of good fortune, the ingredients are all there, cross everything! 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well its about time we had a decent pre-Christmas snowfall and these charts are taking us in the right direction.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS continuing to correct. Very different to yesterdays 00z by 120

gfsnh-0-120.png

Hard to argue with the 144 for a winter chart

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS continuing to correct. Very different to yesterdays 00z by 120

gfsnh-0-120.png

Hard to argue with the 144 for a winter chart

gfsnh-0-144.png

Indeed...

if anything there has been a reversal in roles this morning. The UKMO looks the ropier of the two at 120 hrs

UN120-21.GIF?23-05

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed...

if anything there has been a reversal in roles this morning. The UKMO looks the ropier of the two at 120 hrs

UN120-21.GIF?23-05

Yeah quite a difference by 144. I guess it wouldn't be the MO thread without some model divergence though.

UN144-21.GIF?23-05gfsnh-0-144.png

GFS is fantastic from a synoptic standpoint but again 850 temps are amazingly mostly around -4 even with a sustained arctic flow by start of December.

gfsnh-1-192.png

Still, get the synoptic first and worry about that later. Never happy us coldies...

 

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah quite a difference by 144. I guess it wouldn't be the MO thread without some model divergence though.

UN144-21.GIF?23-05gfsnh-0-144.png

GFS is fantastic from a synoptic standpoint but again 850 temps are amazingly mostly around -4 even with a sustained arctic flow at start of December.

gfsnh-1-192.png

Still, get the synoptic first and worry about that later. Never happy us coldies...

 

Even with the good start, the GFS goes downhill fast into FI

gfsnh-0-228.png

We may yet need another go at trying to achieve a proper, sustained HLB 

Edited by CreweCold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dunno Crew, just typical GFS low res?

I mean below is 36h and the 204 chart.

gfsnh-0-36.png gfsnh-0-204.png

and then a little later, hi res v lo res. :drunk-emoji:

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-264.png

And then when we consider how much it has struggled with blocking out to 96h no reason to suspect it has FI nailed.

GEM 144 not too shabby

gemnh-0-144.png?00

 

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

morning  something  for the coldies breckfast

gens-16-1-384.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to see gfs coming on board but ukmo not as good and ecm upto t96 is making less of the ridge. Oh the joys of this hobby!!! I think the ridge linking to heights in the pole is the outsider but it is a possibility. 

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main feature today and tomorrow remains the deepening low between Iceland and Norway with much of the UK within it's circulation. Once the rain clears the south east quickly this morning England and Wales will dry and brighter apart from a narrow band of showers that will cross during the day leaving everywhere much cooler than of late. Some rain may creep into the south west late on. Showery in N. Ireland and early morning snow in parts of Scotland giving way to frequent blustery snow  showers with the wind picking up later.

Windy and continuing wintry showers in the north tomorrow but quieter and cold further south once the rain as cleared. Feeling chilly everywhere.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.669e85dd352a894cb73d9318a236e494.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.ef016eb716e588fd98ff47212ccf0ce6.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.8bd92dd49acda255d2ff2ba455f52530.gif

Which brings us to the weekend and some amplification of the high Pressure to the west  has forced the aforementioned low south east leaving the UK in a very brisk unstable north westerly with frequent showers, of snow in the north. Whilst at the same time the upper trough that has spewed out of the Canadian vortex lobe is south of Greenland with the surface front trialing south. Over the next 24 hours the  front and developing waves are forced NE towards Iceland by the burgeoning HP whilst the UK comes under a very transient ridge.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.d543ada9856513fc7a7b6857703d76a7.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.85b5e4b86a1f2ec528657cae07117864.pnggfs_uv500_natl_15.thumb.png.9cfcb814e8ca2e78b38665423dc28aa3.png

The front and rapidly developing low south of Iceland track rapidly south east and by 12 Monday the front has traversed the country and the low 990mb is over Scotland so rain in most parts but snow and gales in the north, particularly Scotland. The low continues it's journey and by 00 Tuesday is in the North Sea thus veering the wind northerly over the UK, frequent snow showers in the north, The change of pattern is starting to emerge here as the upper trough to the east begins to phase with the trough to the south west and create a link to the energy emerging from the eastern seaboard as the high pressure continues to burgeon south of Greenland and Iceland.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.91c974c513db48fca8295cbdf94b1c7d.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.2bc76c03839b87ff25adf9fb0116af54.pnggfs_z500a_natl_21.thumb.png.73b9638edd9b5d8258dd97ba31d96422.png

By Thursday 00, With low pressure loitering in the North Sea and a strong high cell to the north west a coldish northerly and wintry showers, temps a little below average,  remains over the UK with split energy flows running north and south of the high cell. But by the end of the week the high pressure is coming under pressure from the more organised eastbound energy but before it finally gives way a a small perturbation forms in the western quadrant of the low and tracks south bringing snow to Scotland. Detail a bit pointless at this range though

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.3f15d1d18b6c3b379c8d6d898576bfdc.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_34.thumb.png.0710b1f4b7851e65313da101085beea5.pnggfs_uv500_natl_39.thumb.png.034dde82e335d25e1d556d6a22a48ed4.png

The gfs has taken it to the extreme this morning so anything from next week on still has to be filed under pending but the anomalies last night were hinting at the amplification becoming less intense in the ext period. Although looking at this mornings GEFS one has to to think the det run has very much overcooked this.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.06d6855d3230534bae34f8ccf91e33c7.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The farthest reaches of the GEFS 00z (like the 18z) continue to ignore low heights around Greenland.

gens_panel_jxj5.png

Like Sonny Landham in Predator, it senses a disturbance in the shadows but doesn't know what it is yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Deary me! - I thought it might after things started badly with less amplification on the UKMO and now its continued on to the ECM.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it looks like a middle ground being reached here.guess the best thing to say is it will be seasonable  .It does seem to happen every year that when a couple of good runs show up folk go on snow depths alert even tho the run is 7-10 days away.anyway all to play for!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh Deary me! - I thought it might after things started badly with less amplification on the UKMO and now its continued on to the ECM.

I wouldn't worry about output from UKMO and ECM - they'll surely fall into line with this morning's stellar output from the GFS!

 

(Tongue firmly in cheek).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the spread of eps as per MWB post yetserday evening, no one should be surprised to see the new  op.  Whether it has any more value than the previous runs, given their consistency will become clearer over the next 24 hours. slow moving MLB fits in with exeters sitting on fence forecasts from the last week or so. given the meandering jet it's a safe bet! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm needs to spend the next 12 hours on the naughty step and think about its behaviour:D

IMG_0042.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm pretty much with the gfs up to around mid week when  the energy doesn't undercut (:shok:) the high pressure and thus the high cell is centred west of Ireland midday Weds with the UK in it's northerly circulation From this point under pressure from the west it moves slowly east over the UK bringing settled but quite cold conditions to the UK for the rest of the week. Could well bring the Xmas dafs on nicely. Needless to say the detail for next week is a long way from being nailed down

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.2022919ffcca165a4c314d3bfbfbf611.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.553424883e98ce03c15e64949baf3a7e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, the ICON looks good at day 7.

iconnh-0-168.png

Well within the envelope of ensemble spreads at this range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM could be going for a very frosty dry spell later stages with with a slack easterly very cold nights manly dry..

Edited by abbie123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to sleep seeing GFS getting on board the polar express. Waking up to find the others considering getting off? 

It's standard fare.

Within a couple of days we could go from models hinting at  Omega to Bartlett!  I dream it won't happen. Except in my nightmares!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There should be no surprise at all this morning with reference to the Euro ops. Mid Lat high a very plausible mid range outcome.

Nothing's off the table yet, just another set of permutations from the models. As always, the question will be, a blip or a trend...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMG_0650.thumb.PNG.a9156ce19d7601dc0bbcf5f78699b6a8.PNG

impressive mean chart eh?  well consideing  that's 16 days away I think we will put it down to co incidence of timing on greeny ridges on the gefs members rather than a guaranteed mid December cold spell. After all, that kind of mean upper ridge at two weeks is the stuff that only happens on the other side of the NH ............ 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

IMG_0650.thumb.PNG.a9156ce19d7601dc0bbcf5f78699b6a8.PNG

impressive mean chart eh?  well consideing  that's 16 days away I think we will put it down to co incidence of timing on greeny ridges on the gefs members rather than a guaranteed mid December cold spell. After all, that kind of mean upper ridge at two weeks is the stuff that only happens on the other side of the NH ............ 

Yes there were some stonker runs in that suite even 2 or 3 getting the -9c isotherm in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...