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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 162 and it's keeping the fun going.  Tremendous stuff today from ALL the models!

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Cold few days coming up with promise of much more down the line.....maybe.

Beeèeeautiful chart..NE winds bringing increasing threat of snow showers :)

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I was on about a kink in the isobars in the northerly flow intimating unstable air, should have been clearer. :santa-emoji:

Maybe it will turn up in a future run and give an organised band of snow showers from the North, maybe.

 

Yes,looking at that trough coming down,it has cold air inbeded in it

gfsnh-1-114.png?18

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I'm liking this Gfs 18z evolving trend..so is Mr freeze!:cold::D

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I went away for 20 minutes, came back and there were 27 new posts ... I guessed the GFS 18Z would be a little bit good!!

Indeed I was right. Can't do much better than this for T168 unless you're a migrating goose (or Sidney):

gfs-0-168.png?18

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64members to 174 18z is on fire..! 

 

I mean on ice:cold:

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3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Indeed winters coming!

Indeed it is..Another generally positive day and night for coldies  from the models..some of us will see snow from this colder spell..hopefully the appetizer before the main course (winter):D

winteriscoming.jpg

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Just in FI but it would be interesting to see something like this

gfsnh-0-384_bru2.png

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Better GEFS on 18z compared to 12 but ECM 12 ens look a downgrade on the 0z suite, so mixed on the ensemble front.

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Always good to see control going SAME way 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Always good to see control going SAME way 

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Almost all the ens are going that way by that timeframe, I can see an absolute stellar suite coming up here with Steve's Atlantic / Arctic hookup on a good number - Just a hunch given the suite so far.

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The next thing to look out for in the outputs is whether this more amplified wave works across the USA and Canada. This could help to sharpen up the pattern in the Atlantic and send more energy se'wards. The ECM has this at T192hrs:

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This amplification has two effects, it phases with the PV chunk and helps to pull it a bit further away from Greenland, it could also help sharpen up the low sw of Greenland, preferably you want that low to elongate sending energy towards Iberia. This would then help support the block.

The ECM almost delivers on days 9 and 10 but unfavourable phasing doesn't quite deliver the best outcome. Its still a good output  but we could with a bit more amplitude than what it has at that point.

 

 

 

 

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Im new to this site and  I love to study the charts but its late november  and all I can see is sleet on high ground in ireland and the usual snow in north england highlands and high ground midlands but short lived..Am I wrong?

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Just now, emmett garland said:

Im new to this site and  I love to study the charts but its late november  and all I can see is sleet on high ground in ireland and the usual snow in north england highlands and high ground midlands but short lived..Am I wrong?

In my humble opinion ...No

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If you get aroused by looking at charts with lots of yellow and greens in  err intimate places then cast your eyes over some of the ensembles . Some really are x rated   Lots to be pleased about tonight . Just a few to salivate over  13 wow

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Edited by weirpig
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well, the GFS doesn't quite manage the amplification of the ECM but its heading in the right direction. on the other hand, it does continue the theme of aquatic animals and manages a piranha-

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12 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Im new to this site and  I love to study the charts but its late november  and all I can see is sleet on high ground in ireland and the usual snow in north england highlands and high ground midlands but short lived..Am I wrong?

Welcome and no you’re not wrong in terms of the current depth of cold . However this far out the depth of cold might change.

I tend to view the outputs from getting some favourable synoptics and then worrying later about depth of cold.

And if you can hold onto those synoptics surprises can pop up in terms of snow. Given what could be on offer it’s a case of glass half full IMO.

 

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Extended ensembles for brum . I've seen worse 

IMG_1064.GIF

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1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Can I just bank that chart it's a thing of beauty and would lock winter in until march 2018. What a block.

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We all know from December 2010 that cold is never guaranteed to lock in all winter long. 

We will require some warming of the strat in the longer term to ensure we maintain our entry into the raffle. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We all know from December 2010 that cold is never guaranteed to lock in all winter long. 

We will require some warming of the strat in the longer term to ensure we maintain our entry into the raffle. 

After the last few winters mate I'd take a few weeks out of the metreolgical 12 weeks as would a few on here i bet. 

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16 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Well I’m excited. There’s over 120 people online tonight and I imagine a lot more will probably pop up over the coming days.

Just one thing please -If you’re posting charts without comment please can you just give a couple of lines  or personal analysis to give the post some context. If you’re new or don’t know what you’re looking at then a post with a map and bunch of squiggly colours  and no comment could be something my toddler has drawn. Don’t assume everyone reading has read the model handbook.

actually jo, for non-experts (like myself) its worth looking at the squiggly colours and taking note of the shape. aside from whales and piranhas, the hemispheric profile can take on recurring shapes which may remind you of certain animals or familiar objects. which lead to certain weather types. for example, the angelfish-

archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.thumb.png.5eb51c3a51db75d4d67570d60dbf8461.png

greenland high and an alaskan high in perfect combo for the ultimate winter. (1962-63). always handy to remember the shapes when flicking through the latest runs. :wink:

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