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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Its a stonker, its the pattern that brought us a stonking Easterly and bought that now famous arctic outbreak in the USA.

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So basically we are hopefully looking at a totally blocked Atlantic, possible undercutting lows, cold air in place and possible good duration of cold spell. 

December to remember?????

come on guys we all must remember the last two decembers!!!

sit back and enjoy whatever happens ❄️☃️❄️

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14 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Doesn't look up to much on reanalysis Steve?

CFSR_1_1984123118_1.png

EDIT

Looks much better by Jan 2nd though, wouldn't of thought that from 1st chart. Just shows how an arctic high can help. Nice comparison.

CFSR_1_1985010218_1.png

 

 

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^^ Its why I keep the faith that it can happen again although we need the GFS on board!

I think Friday 00z where we are 72>120 we will know by then !!

s

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All looking very promising at the moment. But I guess many of us have been around long enough to have experienced times when we wait for one model to get on board, only to find out that when it does, it all goes Pete Tong on the following days runs!

So many of you guys deliver analysis on the model runs that are brilliant....and I mean from both perspectives...squirrel fans or not squirrel fans!  One I've not seen lately that I respect greatly is Teits. I seem to recall him playing down, rightly as it turned out,  the significance of great looking runs last year. Would be interesting to get his views on what the models are throwing out lately.

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After a crap 3 hour journey home stuck in traffic the ECM has lifted my mood somewhat!!! 

What a run!!! Ya Beauty!

54C562F6-85F4-4A55-9894-EDA4C864F13A.thumb.png.ab4dc29d53cc98e3e5a8b0c07ed033c3.png

 

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28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In true cold spells That statement has been has been inaccurate pretty much 100% of the time!

I know the old saying get the cold in first then potential snow events often pop up at short notice and exactly that has happened numerous times. I was just commenting if it played out exactly as the ecm showed now it would be mainly dry. The overall picture is a good one regardless for cold weather fans. 

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The 64million dollar question is ..... is this just a nice start to the winter...or a prelude to longer sustained cold?

V

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So if I understand correctly the gfs is not as good as the ECM model this evening? Looking at ECM it does seem to be quite cold next week, maybe even a hint of snow around 

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The gem is just extraordinary but JMA is good to unbelievable charts 

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North Easterly of sorts at 192z on ECM 

Wind  from a cold source over relatively warm North Sea.Possible wintry showers in land with hard frosts at night.

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM4-216.gif

Edited by winterof79

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8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 

I'm sticking with the king /daddy of the models, the ECM...I see plenty to be encouraged about as things stand!

I said this what seems like 100 pages ago now.:laugh:.and following the stonking  12z..I'm praying it's on the right track tonight, great continuity for the last 3 runs!!:clapping::cold:

Hoping for a significant early taste of winter:)

Edited by Frosty.

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Hi everyone

I'm new here, but i've been following this forum for almost 2 years ;)

Question : I was wondering where I can find the EC clusters, as posted on the previous pages :)

Btw lovely EC run hehe

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46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dec 31st 1984.

Will the models soon be giving us a glimpse of an OMeGa block I wonder!!

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I have to say I prefer the 0z EPS 240 mean chart than the 12z, not bad though.

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It's 2010 all over again really IF it transpires. And that was a once in 40 year event.

From someone who's well into their 40s take it from me cold snowy spells in November are like hens teeth....Indeed I don't remember one other than 2010

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What I'd like to see now, is -16C Uppers being brought here via Scandinavia...Is that really too much to ask?:crazy:

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What I'd like to see now, is -16C Uppers being brought here via Scandinavia...Is that really too much to ask?:crazy:

Baby steps Ed..I mean Pete..the trend is our friend;)

DPP6Kt1XkAALLPy.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Must admit,this does have that feeling of are we in the middle of witnessing one of those rare cold patterns evolve.... look where we were a week ago and that west based NAO situation.... and Now :shok: the deep cold isn’t a million miles away!

BAB0EE15-324E-4213-AA80-5390CF72C612.thumb.png.d665768f0ec7cc8f3c399fb44284b2c7.png

And......we get the warmest finger from the gods:rofl:

we have a slight upgrade from the 6-10 day outlook from NOAA going for a NNW flow as oposed to a NW flow on yesterday's

sorry had to edit,it kept on posting yesterday's chart,here you go

 

610day.03.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Loving the ECM with a nice cold block set up lasting a few 10 days or 20.....  

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UKMO t144 definitely the chart of the day. Uninterupted HP all the way to the N. Pole.

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Yes very snowy Sat am for areas away from Staffs and Shrops. NW England, higher levels seeing dumping, obviously Scotland esp north and west

Cheshire Gap streamer moving ESE from Stockport, through the Peaks, before all areas turn less cold during Sunday, and a thaw takes place

hgt500-1000.pnghgt500-1000.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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ECM sticking to the same theme it showed yesterday, no real atlantic incursion, a brief attempt on Monday but then a more entrenched northerly airstream takes hold to see the month out, with strong atlantic heights ridging north and possibly linking up with heights over the Pole - end result a cold NE feed, all helped by warm air advection up the west side of Greenland - a classic evolution to something notably cold, which does often happen when we have heights building north through the atlantic.

GFS however, less keen on the warm air advection, and instead barrels the atlantic through but importantly with the trough aligned NW-SE, so hardly a mild outlook, but yes less chance of something notably cold surfacing anytime soon, but it does maintain very strong heights over Greenland throughout, so its not too far off ECM evolution. UKMO siding with ECM - as it often tends to do. 

Lets see how things play out, keep an eye on developments over the eastern seaboard, need to see a deep longwave trough feature here, digging southwards to aid the warm air advection, allowing heights in the atlantic to quickly inflate northwards, turning the flow increasingly to the NE.

An interesting outlook, far from the typical zonal westerly fest, with significant wintry potential.

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