Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

ECM moving towards the GFS ?

They look quite different on the NH view comparison to me.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

ECM moving towards the GFS ?

No! lol Look upstream, keep the faith the GFS is cat litter at the moment.

[bobbydog]

we have an SSW forecast- 

a Sudden Stratospheric Whale....

[weirpig]

120 ecm much better

[Met4Cast]

ECM stands of course with the UKMO, shutting the GFS out of the party until it starts to behave.

[northwestsnow]

hmmmm wondering if the high is not going to get as far north as the 0z run at 120..

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

High pushing north has I see it, gfs wants locking up

[The Northern Ramper]

When do you think the Gfs will climb down?

I'll go for tomorrows 0z run

[booferking]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

hmmmm wondering if the high is not going to get as far north as the 0z run at 120..

Doesn't matter it looks nothing like GFS and that was the hurdle for tonight.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

When do you think the Gfs will climb down?

I'll go for tomorrows 0z run

when will the others climb down!!!

i am not,i am staying on the fence

ecm at 144,...not bad

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Not bad at all

[tight isobar]

Ecm being consistant..

And looks decent/probable..

12z

[bluearmy]

Surface high positively tilted on ecm compared to the 00z run. the fact that there is a nuance on offer shows up that nothing is certain re the size of the amplification and how much WAA can be generated. its a decent run for consistency with upper ridge placement - just need to see that wave of WAA get north

Edited November 22, 2017 by bluearmy

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Turning into a cracking run at 192 NE flow created 

[nick sussex]

The ECM so far is very similar to this mornings run at T168hrs.

Interestingly it disagrees with the UKMO/GEM over the central USA and Canada at T144hrs, no amplified trough but crucially they agree on one deepish low over ne USA at T120hrs which will run ne and help develop the ridge ahead. The GFS has a lack of phasing, no single deepish low and isn't supported

The good thing about this is if the ECM adds more amplification at T144hrs the knock on effect will drag the high further north, even without that it looks fine.

The GFS has no support and a very unlikely solution. I would be astounded if the GFS is correct.

[Allseasons-Si]

Another wow chart from the ecm at 192

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Get from behind the sofas its OK lol

[bluearmy]

wonder if that system at day 8 can send enough energy se to undercut the ridge ??

[Stuie]

The ECM looks decent in pictures but you have to look at the 850`s, they are just not cutting it yet with -4. Trend is good, just need to pull in colder air.

[Derecho]

That ECM is very similar to the p8 run from the 12z GFS .

More pressure to the W of the block but the WAA is strong enough to keep the high pressure to the NW, a very good run indeed so lets hope we get the pressure rise in Greenland we need.

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

168

Awful vile chart for those down the East coast, wet, cold wind and no convection because I would imagine a front will be wrapped around that low.

Sorry but the cold air is really just not appearing at all and that is down to a warm Arctic/svalbard, just look at how above average the Arctic could well be on the ECM and that is why we are feeding on scraps and that is why despite what look nice charts for cold lovers, they won't be in reality unless cold rain is your thing.

[ICE COLD]

The cold uppers are coming  

[SMU]

A virtual pint for the 1 key date in the archives we had an atlantic ridged into the arctic meeting an arctic high ( Not Greenland ! )

answers on a postcard!

Edited November 22, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

wonder if that system at day 8 can send enough energy se to undercut the ridge ??

Thinking about it at 216 Blue and pumping heights up to Greenland again,theres a trough coming down from the NE too,all good viewing this.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Jonan92]

That block is very strong, hard to move it