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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I can't count the times over the years the GFS has shown shortwave spoilers around SW Greenland to trash a potential cold spell - the problem is, it often picks up on them before UKMO and ECM and is proved correct.

Maybe, but there are many, many more times where the GFS is 24 hours behind the Euros.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe, but there are many, many more times where the GFS is 24 hours behind the Euros.

Not being funny, but please don't post edits as they can lose the context of the original post as this does.

I go on to say how and why I think GFS is probably wrong on this occasion.

Better GEM, GFS looking on its own at the moment.

gemnh-0-138.png?12

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Synoptically we may end up in a strong position for northeasterly winds by day 7, just a question of whether sufficient cold air will be in place to exploit.

 

Still chopping and changing to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gem at 144:D

gemnh-0-144.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Even though the GFS turns westerly based later on, high pressure over the pole is a very consistent theme, all the way out to T384

GFSOPNH12_372_1.png

Which is good to see :)

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not being funny, but please don't post edits as they can lose the context of the original post as this does.

I go on to say how and why I think GFS is probably wrong on this occasion.

Better GEM, GFS looking on its own at the moment.

gemnh-0-138.png?12

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

Struggling to see why such enthusiasm at the moment. If we dont see a small low bump into the cold from the north this weekend then any snowfall will be restricted largely to north and western parts of Scotland in the foreseeable future. After that things could easily return to more westerly based setup. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gem is a good run so far and in its latter stages has re-newed heights pushing back up into Greenland with a shortwave ejecting from east of there heading south.

gemnh-0-210.png?12

polar low!!!

the control run goes the same as the op with not ejecting that shortwave at 96hrs

gensnh-0-1-96.png?12

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gem is a good run so far and in its latter stages has re-newed heights pushing back up into Greenland with a shortwave ejecting from east of there heading south.

gemnh-0-210.png?12

polar low!!!

Yeah nice run, in a word, "blocked.

gemnh-0-234.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

A look through the GFS ens shows around 5-6 runs with the potential for serious WAA into the arctic at T144. P3 is the closest to UKMO

GFSP03EU12_144_1.png

But the operational isn't out on its own.

P8 meanwhile takes the award for the best run IMO :D

GFSP08EU12_144_1.png GFSP08EU12_192_1.png GFSP08EU12_240_1.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Whats interesting about the possible evolutions is the ECM this morning managed to deliver some decent output  without making much of that amplified upstream trough past T144hrs. Because its earlier timeframe was already much more solid than the GFS it wasn't a problem.

If it follows the UKMO and GEM with more amplification then it could get more interesting. Of course at this point the main thing is getting the shortwave se without any dramas.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
14 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A look through the GFS ens shows around 5-6 runs with the potential for serious WAA into the arctic at T144. P3 is the closest to UKMO

GFSP03EU12_144_1.png

But the operational isn't out on its own.

P8 meanwhile takes the award for the best run IMO :D

GFSP08EU12_144_1.png GFSP08EU12_192_1.png GFSP08EU12_240_1.png

And a huge number of the GEFS suite end up as synoptic stonkers all the way until the end, but whether this will translate into decent, non-marginal uppers remains to be seen when the graph comes out.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And a huge number of the GEFS suite end up as synoptic stonkers all the way until the end, but whether this will translate into decent, non-marginal uppers remains to be seen when the graph comes out.

They look pretty good tbh Feb :)

Op again one of the milder solutions in the suite ..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

They look pretty good tbh Feb :)

Op again one of the milder solutions in the suite ..

was hoping for better tbh, want to see a decent number flatlining below -8c

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
59 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not being funny, but please don't post edits as they can lose the context of the original post as this does.

I go on to say how and why I think GFS is probably wrong on this occasion.

Better GEM, GFS looking on its own at the moment.

gemnh-0-138.png?12

 

If you edit a post while I'm in the process of responding to it, it's hardly my fault.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

was hoping for better tbh, want to see a decent number flatlining below -8c

Don't think there is much -8 upper air within a few thousand miles just now :D

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't think there is much -8 upper air within a few thousand miles just now :D

exactly - we need to start seeing more runs with alignment to bring the air to us!

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

was hoping for better tbh, want to see a decent number flatlining below -8c

It is not winter yet - or only just in the outer limits of the models. Expecting flatlines below -8c is fairly optimistic IMO    - probably only happened once in 100 years (2010) and then for 3 days at the end of November and 3 days at the beginning of Dec (edit -and that came from ENE not N or NW like we have in prospect).

Edited by swilliam
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If you edit a post while I'm in the process of responding to it, it's hardly my fault.

It wouldn't be except that post was made in full unedited by me.

(It states whether a post  has been edited or not at the top of the post)

I wasn't accusing you of trying to mislead, I just asked politely that you not take edits of posts that can be taken out of context.

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

UKMO very nice.

UKMOPNH12_144_1.thumb.png.4125d6ff36635e4ddd388995797cef75.png

I missed it roll out and went straight to D6. My thoughts on that were, whilst it was a very nice chart in any winter, it would likely topple soon afterwards.

But on going back and looking at the evolution (as I normally do), D5 - D6 was very interesting. My take on D3 - D5 would've been that enough energy definitely would of rolled over the top of the ridge but the fact D6 occured at all has definitely got my interest

UKMOPNH12_120_1.thumb.png.9eb53220b632e01e72e1cec73f5569e6.png

Unforunately though, it doesnt make either of the two charts above any more accurate but should something like that occur, a cold spell for the UK would almost certainly follow on

Edited by s4lancia
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