Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bluearmy]

Will probably get lost amongst the pub run comments but just a note in those NOAA charts. They are mean charts of mean and ol output covering a hole week. You will rarely see sharp ridges and troughs giving southerlies/northerlies and remember that climatology is westerly. You need to look at the general look of where upper ridges and troughs are in conjunction with where the anomalies are.  That week 2 chart shows an Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough. How marked these two features end up, how sustained and how they interact with each other are not going to be predictable from that mean chart.

[Met4Cast]

Better separation of energy on the Southern tip of Greenland, should allow heights to build Northwards faster

[Day 10]

132

[shaky]

Much better 18z so far!!heights building into greenland much stronger at t120 hours!!!gona be a good run this.....i think!!!!!

[tight isobar]

18z ..

The door is ajar' and atlantic waa is looking to take advantage....

Gfs taking an ec route!??

Comparable...ecm-gfs.....

With plenty of catch up time via 18z...

Could be another corker run

 

Edited November 21, 2017 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

That is pretty decent at 144 hrs,yes!!!,144hrs compared to the 12z,more CAA advection off Newfoundland helping heights to build stronger in the atlantic,look at that greeny block go

Edited November 21, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

Much improved out to 144 and not a million miles away from the ECM at the same time.  Excitement growing!

GFS

ECM

[Scandinavian High.]

That’s a  surprise heavy snow in the south pushing in south east England nice to see but I doubt it won’t come of..

Edited November 21, 2017 by abbie123

[Jonan92]

We can clearly see the difference in the jet with the previous run

 

12z

18z

[chionomaniac]

Lower heights over Iberia on this run. If ever we are too get a true Greenland high then this will be a precursor. Still think it is the highest toppler ever!

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Much improved out to 144 and not a million miles away from the ECM at the same time.  Excitement growing!

GFS

ECM

Gfs gets the heights all the way to the pole on this run could it get the second wave up to cement the block I wonder? The low exiting the eastern seaboard could do with being a bit deeper to help the waa up into Greenland but it's still heading in a positive direction for us coldies 

[tight isobar]

Just need some depth in advection...

Into greenland..

Everthing in situ... 

But need to see true heights @greenland..

Then prolongment can be gained.

[Allseasons-Si]

I am loving all these upgrades

but what goes up,must come down,hopefully snow and not downgrades

good show again today and looking forward to tomorrows runs

off the press!!!!

168 hrs shows the siberian express train gearing up to our NE just like the ecm

[January Snowstorm]

We are very close to something special here akin to 2010....at this point we're used to it going pear shaped!? After so much heartache last year it's hard to find the confidence to believe!!

An early start for most of us tomorrow 

[Ice Day]

Although not quite as good as the ECM, this is still more than a decent chart at 186 so it would be a bit churlish to complain.  

 

It does seem that all routes are leading to cold at the moment and we aren't far away from something significant.

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

We are very close to something special here akin to 2010....at this point we're used to it going pear shaped!? After so much heartache last year it's hard to find the confidence to believe!!

An early start for most of us tomorrow 

With a plethora of charts like that, I am starting to 

[sub zero]

11,000 + Greenland high, doesn't get any better than that...! ???????

[blizzard81]

Fax charts updated. The 96hr chart for Saturday shows the 528 dam line nearing central France. Yesterday's 120hr chart for the same time had it just into the north west tip of France. Short term upgrades are always a good precursor to decent cold spells. 

[tight isobar]

198 gfs 18z...

Cut off point for me. .

Far to much to decipher' in regards microscale placements...and waa/advecting into the pole...or not!

But another v-promising run..if cold is your preference.

Sleep tight.....

And oh...please........ dont have nightmares..??

Edited November 21, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

Massive improvement on the Pub run from the GFS 12z. 

Certainly starting to get that feeling of momentum! 

Nail biter tomorrow, although doesn’t seem to be to many dramas/spoilers this time.

@nick sussex have we moved from Amber yet...

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

198 gfs 18z...

Cut off point for me. .

Far to much to decipher' in regards microscale placements...and waa/advecting into the pole...or not!

But another v-promising run..if cold is your preference.

All academic at that range and diff variations will churn out but the trend(for now)looks to be the same, that trough looks to be heading SE though

 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Massive improvement on the Pub run from the GFS 12z. 

Certainly starting to get that feeling of momentum! 

Nail biter tomorrow, although doesn’t seem to be to many dramas/spoilers this time.

@nick sussex have we moved from Amber yet...

Shhhhhhhhhhh!!!

don't mention shortwaves I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

[Geordiesnow]

Although the models are trending colder, the spoilers on what could go wrong would be a poor Atlantic ridge and the shortwave/trigger low getting stuck to the West leaving the UK in cool air, theres a small chance of a snow event from that trigger low if it comes against the cold air at the right angle and as a shallower feature. Some nice convective weather possible on Thursday and Saturday with the threat of showers becoming wintry also, aslong as any mild sectors don't come into play too much.

There does seem to be a slight trend on the ECM though that as good as the set ups look, the uppers do look unremarkable in the medium to long term, think the main problem is that in the higher latitudes, we are not getting much arctic air flooding southwards hence one of the reasons for the unremarkable uppers but lots of potential nonetheless.

[nick sussex]

Another run ticked off with no major early dramas.  Not the greatest week for the GFS with the overblown low crossing the south which is now just a shallow feature and its flat bias coming to the fore upstream.

The shortwave to the nw still needs to be nailed down in terms of track and depth , that might still produce some interest.

Overall coldies should be happy and we’ve seen quite a turnaround after the initial west based neg NAO trauma of last week.

 

 

 

[stewfox]

33 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That’s a  surprise HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTH pushing in south east England nice to see but I doubt it won’t come of..

Excellent post with supporting chart , folks can take there own view re what they see.

Edited November 21, 2017 by stewfox