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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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39 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS has shortwave at 72 , ECM dosen't?

 

gfs-0-72.png?12ECM1-72.GIF?21-0

hmm, not so sure on that......the GFS developes a secondary low

5a147659d7cb4_secondarylow.thumb.png.7064d16cb8df7d1ea9f14d8f062b04ba.png

 

the ECM developes a shortwave trough, look at the pressure gradient contours

5a147691bb38e_swtrough.thumb.png.27c8c89006b9a99e581c2c84294c82ae.png

I think the issue is that the terms 'secondary low' and 'trough' or 'shortwave trough' get interchanged perhaps incorrectly at times on the forum.........I stand corrected if wrong of course :)

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Just now, tight isobar said:

Tbf im slightly with you here.

Its evolvement' was very direct...perhaps to direct after 96hrs   

But i'll gladly be proven wrong!!

I also hope I am

Its just to quick for me over the time period it progesses so far north. 

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

I also hope I am

Its just to quick for me over the time period it progesses so far north. 

Makes very easy on the eye...

But very easy work of the 'all talked' about ridge.

But could as easily be on the money...

Lets hope so!?

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We just need that phrase....    

CROSS-MODEL -AGREEMENT!

GFS/ECM/UKMO/GEM/JMA

but i'd take the first three outputs at the drop of a hat.

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Steve Murr on board :yahoo:

Gawd this place is something else when colds on the menu....makes all the pain worthwhile :)

EC is just synoptic heaven- Northern blocking galore, wonder if that all that WAA pumped up into high latitudes will serve to prolong the seasonal weather- bye bye Dec 2016 you wont be missed.

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Holy ice cubes! Quick, to the ensembles Robin!:D:cold-emoji:

What an Ecm run, another upgrade..could we see a prolonged cold spell?..really hope so:drinks:

Meltdown alert..Boom..Stella..if Carlsberg....etc:D??

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168_mslp500.png

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216_mslp850uk.png

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240_mslp500.png

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perfick.jpg

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Great ECM run for the Scottish ski resorts aswell as those across mainland Europe.

After the mediocre GFS good to see the ECM continuing with its festive spirit. As long as the UKMO remains onside then confidence increases.

Hopefully NOAA trash the GFS in their state forecasts!

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Looking at the ecm"as it stands"at 240 hrs there is a good chance of the atlantic ridge hooking up with the one ne of svalbard. Pressure dropping sse would possibly drop the block into Scandinavia? ?.think Steve mentioned this but my senility may have upgraded? ??

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I think the Scottish Ski resorts will be pretty pleased with tonight's ECM

76922fdb-33f5-4841-9228-0453a4362945.thumb.png.e654dfbe0a263afb8f076ac75480d7fc.pngc85a5896-da8e-4329-a283-da3a49e4abf7.png1.thumb.png.f0f12e1cc26e5f5e1b827a6ec0095939.png

giphy.gifgiphy.gif

Do you have them charts for england,we wouldn't want to be left out:D

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22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hiya

Just for clarity - a wave once peaked wont become a GH so if you have a wave where the 552 Line has just reached the tip of southern greenland then it will close off in the central atlantic - thats that wave over & done with-

To reach a Greenland High you will need another wave with a higher amplitude to take the 552 line much further North-

Tonights ECM ( nothing short of spectacular & alligned to GEM & UKMO ) shows this secondary wave perfectly

120 > 144 > 168

IMG_1277.thumb.PNG.e78bd1aced6e8f4001163e2a0c743cae.PNG

IMG_1278.thumb.PNG.954280baa2dd37919a26f0ec0cacafdc.PNGIMG_1279.thumb.PNG.9bb9d754ca227fe8b4ed3a98f928c3a9.PNG

 

Starting over NE US the jet is kicked Northwards taking high pressure with it- at this stage there is almost a point of no return which is once the centre point of the low gets North of the western tip of Greenland it will continue NNE...

The models tonight continue off where we thought & 'hoped' they may go yesterday which is elongating a cold snap into a cold spell-

Initially the North & elevation would see uppers cold enough for snow - however should the pattern continue as modelled by the ECM - so the deeper cold will gradually seap back south through Scandi towards the UK...

Exciting times but we need that secondary ridge with the same amplitude at 72 > 96 > 120 for 100% confidence & of course the GFS on board..

S

 

 

Much appreciated

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

They are here https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171130-1800z.html

Not much for England and Wales at this stage 

Does that show some lying snow IMBY thur lunchtime? That cant be right, or most likely im reading it wrong.

Think thats faulty- no way does EC 12z show snow here thur.

Edited by northwestsnow

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that show some lying snow IMBY thur lunchtime? That cant be right, or most likely im reading it wrong.

That's next Thursday. For some reason it starts at the end of the run.

Quite good for NW England.

Edited by Supacell

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3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

That's next Thursday. For some reason it starts at the end of the run.

Quite good for NW England.

Oh thanks very much- i was very confused- i think in an easterly feed this area esp with altitude does well :)

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The T144-T240 evolution looks good but i'm not so confident. It's the trickiest evolution for our part of the world - all too often, another low gets across the gap ... then another ... and so on. Now in this case extra lows may help if they dive south, but if they don't it's game over for cold. I'd like to see the T144 chart get to T72 before I can believe the Atlantic block might be strong enough to hold on. 

 

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that show some lying snow IMBY thur lunchtime? That cant be right, or most likely im reading it wrong.

Think thats faulty- no way does EC 12z show snow here thur.

The site confuses me when it comes to snow. Look at the significant weather charts, and no snow at all. Look at the snow depth charts and you see a sprinkling. I'm reading it with caution unless the colours turn blue.

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ECM Ensemble mean rolling out.... :unsure2: nervous moments. 

Steady as she goes 

6AFE3F73-934A-4AA0-B4E7-80B9D00C1A67.thumb.png.2ba48c80c879fc5aa98a3677dce59d7f.png

But not looking quite so pronounced after 168, although I don't find these the easiest of charts to read, so could be wrong, but looks like the high sinks.

240

91D6C792-C48A-4D70-B827-82C53DB1AAA1.thumb.png.33df5a27741a5d63d42d7dfaa713bee1.png

Probably not a massive surprise if we are honest with ourselves. That was quite a peach of an ECM operational. The important thing is out to 168, it looks pretty good to me!

Edited by karlos1983
Typo

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Now what if the EPS indicates the low further to the east/south east with a westerly flow across Iceland cutting off ingress of cold air from the north east as the ridge nudges east bringing the UK within it's circulation? Just musing.

Edited by knocker

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Now what if the EPS indicates the low further to the east/south east with a westerly flow across Iceland cutting off ingress of cold air from the north east as the ridge nudges east bringing the UK within it's circulation? Just musing.

I don’t find that amusing at all. :ninja: 

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