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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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At least a week of 850's below zero in London if tonight's mean is on the money

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.4e8d995086a84eece09780633633eafa.png

Not much rain going into early December which could well mean a spell of high pressure crisp and sunny by day if we avoid any stubborn fog/cloud and frosty nights

Edited by Summer Sun

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No runner low at base of trough on ECM so any ppn likely lighter and much further South than GFS and same with JMA, just a shortwave that passes through quickly

ECH1-72.GIF?21-0JN72-21.GIF?21-12

Edited by Mucka

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS has shortwave at 72 , ECM dosen't?

 

gfs-0-72.png?12ECM1-72.GIF?21-0

Ec looks colder on saturday but much drier- would have thought showers coming in off the irish sea but wouldnt be suprised if its bone dry.

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS has shortwave at 72 , ECM dosen't?

 

gfs-0-72.png?12ECM1-72.GIF?21-0

GFS is more a shortwave low.

ECM and JMA have the shortwave but it doesn't develop and pushes through quicker - see above.

Here it as 48h just to the SW of the UK

ECH1-48.GIF?21-0

The 24h steps make it harder to follow.

Edited by Mucka

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No runner low at base of trough on ECM so any ppn likely lighter and much further South than GFS

ECH1-72.GIF?21-0

it does have a feature that looks to track across the southern most part of the BI,and doesn't develope into a low preasure system.

ECM1-48.thumb.GIF.60a7adbbc245ce1d6911a6ab1ee7e0f6.GIFECM1-72.thumb.GIF.4517baca2e3cfc3bf3a0a6a1245697e9.GIF

there is a little kink on the uk view though,and temps marginal.

ECU1-72.GIF?21-0ECU0-72.GIF?21-0

 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec looks colder on saturday but much drier- would have thought showers coming in off the irish sea but wouldnt be suprised if its bone dry.

No way will you fail snow from Irish sea, looks good angle for you, me though bone dry as snow streamers move ESE through Stockport into Peak district

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No way will you fail snow from Irish sea, looks good angle for you, me though bone dry as snow streamers move ESE through Stockport into Peak district

I'll bet you my bottom dollar EC precip charts are dry as a bone for this neck of the woods mate.

Anyway, i'm more interested in 120-144 :)

uppers of -4 will only produce for 300m plus or even more imho.

Edited by northwestsnow

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Thats the low on EC & precipitation.. Much further South

location.png

Edited by booferking

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Ec-going way of gfs!!..

Making drama of waa as-gfs...

Ridge flatening!!!

See if it can somehow revert!

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Ec-going way of gfs!!..

Making drama of waa as-gfs...

Ridge flatening!!!

See if it can somehow revert!

EC is same if not better than UKMO????

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Very nice, solid ridge, better than UKMO actually

ECH1-144.GIF?21-0

Incidentally GFS Op was a mild outlier in FI.

graphe6_1000_254_65___.gif

Edited by Mucka

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'll bet you my bottom dollar EC precip charts are dry as a bone for this neck of the woods mate.

Anyway, i'm more interested in 120-144 :)

uppers of -4 will only produce for 300m plus or even more imho.

off  Irish sea, I need -10 uppers, 510 thicknesses, frontal though can be warmer, depending on setup

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec-going way of gfs!!..

Making drama of waa as-gfs...

Ridge flatening!!!

See if it can somehow revert!

The ecm is more amplified than the gfs and also has WAA northwest into Greenland whereas the gfs has it strait north,miles better run if you ask me:)

ECM1-144.GIF?21-0gfs-0-144.png?12

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This looks an awesome run, heights really building through Greenland - could be the building blocks of something cold and a pretty prolonged one at that. Great stuff

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec-going way of gfs!!..

Making drama of waa as-gfs...

Ridge flatening!!!

See if it can somehow revert!

I think you're looking at a different ECM.

144 the ECM is almost identical, if not better than the UKMO 144

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5 minutes ago, booferking said:

EC is same if not better than UKMO????

Yes is now....

Cannot upload image 144...

But yep much better..

Had horrors of this feature/west greenland being a spoiler!!!

 

 

Screenshot_2017-11-21-18-31-04.png

Edited by tight isobar

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ECM looking very nice! More amplified than UKMO, 168 chart should be gawjus. 

5D5A6EB9-65C2-497F-ACE8-B9D76DD8419D.thumb.png.83d06ab3938f99811840773fb4c6cc84.png0BC62A40-B3A8-4623-8385-91044163D6E9.thumb.png.de1be40eaf567c19d0e149664206e0e6.png

Can we get a decent cold plunge/spell from this?

Edited by karlos1983

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Maybe even better than GEM :bomb:

ECH1-168.GIF?21-0

ECH0-168.GIF?21-0

 

Only issue is that every model has lots of warm sectors to our N/NE and E so we will need  sustained 48h NE/E flow to bring in the cold uppers - shouldn't be an issue if we get this far though.

Edited by Mucka

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Maybe even better than GEM :bomb:

ECH1-168.GIF?21-0

Noting the complete lack of heights to our south at last :yahoo:

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