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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Just now, Mucka said:

GEM probably the pick of the models this evening thus far

gemnh-0-162.png?12

Looks lovely, unfortunately i rate it even lower than GFS- and that means its below junk rating.

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really UKMO is just too good to be true from where im sat, surely the path to Greenland heights is well laid at 144.

GFS  is just junk- it will be another mild wild outlier...imho of course :pardon:

Ukmo...decent and will 99-9% look even better later on...

Gfs is seriously caught between evolutions.

Will ec-12z shed some light.......should do!!!

The ride continues.

Edited by tight isobar

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Sadly it will never make it into a proper GH but what you want is enough of a ridge to create a wedge over scandi when it topples

also Arctic +VE pressure supporting over svalbard-

Ukmo 144 leads into GEM 168...

Sorry steve i didnt mean a Greeny high- i meant pretty much what you said, the high will likely collapse as you say, as long as its far enough north to lock in the euro low.

:)

we can see by gfs12 what happens if the high in the atlantic doesnt get far enough north - yuk

Edited by northwestsnow

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UKMO has the 850's peaking at a low of around -7 for Scotland and NI and -4 for northern England and most of central and western areas so snow for these areas with some elevation

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.2094f85b7196f1657cb67f7f8cf3d722.GIF

T144 the 850's rise enough to confine any snow to higher parts of Scotland most of Europe lacks any significant cold at the moment so it is probably good we haven't got any easterlies at present as they wouldn't really be all that cold

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.95797b107d2aca0c6f950ccfac46545a.GIFUN144-7.thumb.GIF.2d9cff28e4844acf5df9e7f301d57156.GIF

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM with a stonking run this evening.

It may be a lower ranked model but have any of the models been good in the last week?

gemnh-0-222.png?12

How about ECM follow this? :bomb:

With such an array of probable/possible outcomes-regards mid bound atlantic ridge-... who knows.

One mod has it near on!?.

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM with a stonking run this evening.

It may be a lower ranked model but have any of the models been good in the last week?

gemnh-0-222.png?12

How about ECM follow this? :bomb:

Yes all brought about by the retrogression at 120-144..hopefully GFS has been on the vodka early this afternoon- EC hopefully will follow UKMO/GEM, not that ghastly GFS.

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6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM with a stonking run this evening.

It may be a lower ranked model but have any of the models been good in the last week?

gemnh-0-222.png?12

How about ECM follow this? :bomb:

Looks like the other side of the Northern Hemisphere is hogging all the juicy cold uppers, greedy buggers! So despite the nice looking charts it may be a struggle to get snow away from hills. We shall see.

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hey folks. ive been a browser on this site for many years, infact since 2009 and finally pushed myself to join. I love this site and find it so exciting when you see pages n pages of responses knowing therefore somethings a-foot. ihave a great knowledge and understanding if the weather and studied meteorology at open uni so i very much look forward to here on in on here. 

Models look very good this evening and have done for the last few days i must say. The potential snow event end of week looks interesting but think it will not happen up here in leeds :(

just a question for you steve or anyone else who knows, which im trying to get my head around... why with those great synoptics n alignment of the high in the atlantic will it not join forces properly with greenland? to become a greenie. it seems the only plausible way and that of which ive seen many times in the past succesfully happen but it would be grea to understand why on this occasion it osnt possible?. any ideas.

cheers. 

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7 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Looks like the other side of the Northern Hemisphere is hogging all the juicy cold uppers, greedy buggers! So despite the nice looking charts it may be a struggle to get snow away from hills. We shall see.

GEM is known to massively overestimate 850's - you can knock a good 3c of the 850's it gives for the UK.

It is actually a cold run throughout, the coldest we have seen for some time.

 

gem-1-198.png?12

 

GFS control run in disagreement with the Op, much more amplified.

gensnh-0-1-168.png

Rest of the ensembles fairly well split some much more amplified than previously, some flat, some a mess

Op has less much less than 50% support for the flatter pattern so good news there.

Edited by Mucka

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8 minutes ago, sausage said:

hey folks. ive been a browser on this site for many years, infact since 2009 and finally pushed myself to join. I love this site and find it so exciting when you see pages n pages of responses knowing therefore somethings a-foot. ihave a great knowledge and understanding if the weather and studied meteorology at open uni so i very much look forward to here on in on here. 

Models look very good this evening and have done for the last few days i must say. The potential snow event end of week looks interesting but think it will not happen up here in leeds :(

just a question for you steve or anyone else who knows, which im trying to get my head around... why with those great synoptics n alignment of the high in the atlantic will it not join forces properly with greenland? to become a greenie. it seems the only plausible way and that of which ive seen many times in the past succesfully happen but it would be grea to understand why on this occasion it osnt possible?. any ideas.

cheers. 

Have a read back through the thread mate.

Should give you some good pointers

I'e...atlantic ridge-to greenland stalemate.

?

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npst30.png npst30.png npst30.png
The 12z GFS elongates the strat. vortex more than previous runs and even pinches off a secondary trough/lobe for a time, but having moved into lower-res ('FI'), this secondary feature moves east and merges with the main lobe again and by some unpleasant irony this period of extra elongation seems to slow the rotation of the main vortex around to Siberia and hence the progress of the warming emanating from above E. Asia.

In light of this possibility, I really do hope UKMO/GEM are right to maintain a better angle of WAA in a week's time so that the tropospheric blocking pattern can continue to put up a good fight while the stratospheric pattern re-arranges itself into something more helpful for us longer-term. Glad that UKMO is on the good side here.

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6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM is known to massively overestimate 850's - you can knock a good 3c of the 850's it gives for the UK.

It is actually a cold run throughout, the coldest we have seen for some time.

 

gem-1-198.png?12

 

GFS control run in disagreement with the Op, much more amplified.

gensnh-0-1-168.png

Rest of the ensembles fairly well split some much more amplified than previously, some flat, some a mess

Op has less much less than 50% support for the flatter pattern so good news there.

Big EC tonight- i'd be shocked if it looks anything like gfs - shocked and...

Image result for angry gif

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Have a read back through the thread mate.

Should give you some good pointers

I'e...atlantic ridge-to greenland stalemate.

?

I'd like to know too Steve why an Atlantic ridge won't morph into a Greeny High.

What page was the discussion on there's 173!

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I'd like to know too Steve why an Atlantic ridge won't morph into a Greeny High.

What page was the discussion on there's 173!

Lol ...

Im not steve/SM.

Was just advising.

?

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I think we might be seeing changes upstream beginning to effect the brief model consensus .

The ridge over the west coast of the USA is expected to break down early next week , in terms of the PV over Quebec which had stalled its what happens to that. Does this edge east as per the GFS or does this head more ne.

The GEM goes with the ne helped by a bit more amplitude over Canada .

Given the GFSs recent performance and it’s known upstream flat bias I’d tend to put more weight on the ECM.

Its only a few days ago that the GFS made the wrong call within T120hrs.

If the ECM goes flatter then fair enough but given tonights UKMO I’d be surprised if it follows the GFS.

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I'm liking how the UKMO and the Control run of the 12Z GFS are very similar, especially given how the 12z GFS control run evolves.

 

UKMO + 144

UW144-21.GIF?21-17

GFS Control + 144

gens-0-1-144.png

The Control then goes on to evolve into a fairly slack Easterly, but an easterly none the less, fantastic charts, will be looking at tonight's ECM with interest

gens-0-1-276.png

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looking forward to the ecm. hoping it keeps everything moving closer just how its been doing. hoping troughs etc will develop n pep up in the flow beit NW or northerly.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So a potential snow event in the offering for the weekend-

I would be going with Buxton / snake pass etc being the usual suspects that get clobbered-

I think a day out fri > Sat is the order of the day...

Look out in the 12z for a better high pressure wedge over scandi post 192...

The  control run gets there Steve from 192,then meanders around up there in low res,not a bad chart that with hp cell to the north and lp to the south,it would be nice and crisp with a continental flow too,many outcomes from there in....if of cause we get there:)

gensnh-0-1-192.png?12gensnh-0-1-240.png?12gensnh-0-1-288.png?12

the end result of the control run not only gives us a cobra run but a scorpion sting:shok::bomb:

gensnh-0-1-384.png?12Untitled_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqlMeVai_ygl35P

Edited by Allseasons-si

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6 minutes ago, sausage said:

looking forward to the ecm. hoping it keeps everything moving closer just how its been doing. hoping troughs etc will develop n pep up in the flow beit NW or northerly.

Where's your location sausage? great to know elevation too especially when rain/snow chances, cheers Tom

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59 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some coldies are so hard to please but i'm delighted with the ukmo 12z which has a locked in cold look about it at T+144 hours with wintry weather for the uk..Welcome on-board ukmo!:D:cold:

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Make-it-Snow-Star-Trek.jpg

Yes the models firming up on a cold shot for the weekend with the potential of further outbreaks going forward.

 

Congratulations Frosty by the way, a full post without letting us know what season it is ?

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Almost every GFS ensemble member keeps the cold going until the middle of next week at least. Quite a few show very cold air organizing around NE Canada so in order to avoid a breakdown we need:

- A clean regression of the mid-Atlantic high to Greenland to amplify the pattern
- The Greenland high to ridge to Scandi if it comes under attack.

Alternatively the Greenland high could sustain itself and that would be the best case scenario, a few members show this. Quite a few members however show the attempt of ridging to Scandi at least.

Energy to the W of Greenland is something to keep an eye on. Hope the ECM favours the UKMO when the 12z rolls out. 

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Having a look at the evolution for the next 2 weeks, can I just say how nice it is to see some proper wintry weather being modeled as we head into December. The last few winters have had myself and many others peering from behind a sofa as the models trot out their output. 

Even though a ridge may not be able to sustain itself to create a long lasting Scandi or Greenie wedge, lack of southern incursions means that each topple introduces air mass from the north west before attempting to reload the HP.  Far better position to be in compared to seeing a Euro block to our east.

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28 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lol ...

Im not steve/SM.

Was just advising.

?

Sorry was meant to quote SM. 

Still wouln’t mind reading about why, when how Atlantic ridges will/won’t result in Green Highs. 

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