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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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So a potential snow event in the offering for the weekend-

I would be going with Buxton / snake pass etc being the usual suspects that get clobbered-

I think a day out fri > Sat is the order of the day...

Look out in the 12z for a better high pressure wedge over scandi post 192...

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Slight Eastwards shift at +96 and slightly stronger blocking going North in the Atlantic too. Very minor changes but upgrades nonetheless.

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Surely the low moving in Friday night instead of Saturday day time would increase the likelihood of rain turning to snow.

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7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Friday evening really is looking miserable for many.

Cold wet and windy.

But if some get lucky (Up North more especially high ground) they will instead be treated to heavy snow 

All according to GFS I might add.

gfs-0-78.png?12gfs-2-84.png?12

Looking at the latest modelling, i think the chances of snow for lower lying areas is increasing. GFS 12z shows this, especially with slightly heavier PPN, increasing the chance of it being snow i would have thought? Hopefully something similar from the others.

 

Given you're from Manchester, and possibly know the topography better, where would you say has the best shot for snow this coming weekend, Central Manchester, or Lichfield (160m asl). I have the choice of the 2, but only recently started visiting Manchester and don't really know how they fair for snow. Cheers.

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Nice wedge of waa 

Makng inroads much better @point-tip greenland on this run 12z.

Finding better alignment against spewing vortex lobe..canadian faction..

Huh...then roll next frame..and a break-off short wave shoots me down...

Edited by tight isobar

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gfs-1-138.png?12

Overall the 12Z run is colder than the 06z run, another attempt at frontal snow as  the second low crosses the UK, Mild sector getting squeezed out with each run.

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UKMO has the ppn band marginally further South than GFS and develops the low less.

@Staffordshire I PM'd you

UW72-21.GIF?21-17

Latest Aperge does away with it and keeps any ppn to the South.

arpegenh-0-72.png?12

Edited by Mucka

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A little less amplified run in the US, I wouldn't expect the block to climb to the pole so much in this run

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12ukmo looking a stormer.  Reload better looking at t120 than compared to the 0z

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Good output this evening so far, cold weather for the weekend is looking like a sure bet now, how quickly it moves south will depend on if a low passes through the UK this Saturday - finer details which will take a little longer to resolve.

It's pleasing to see the UKMO drop the idea of high pressure over Italy and it looks likely that after T144 a northerly airflow will re-emerge. This is much in line with the GFS 12z so far.

No really cold weather yet, that may have to wait a while but pretty seasonal and crisp :).

Later frames of the GFS show lower heights to the W of Greenland would prefer a more amplified US pattern and some colder air over Scandi if I am to be picky.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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UKMO is tremendous this evening - looks much better than GFSs at 144 with a much cleaner route to retrogression in the Atlantic :yahoo:

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Cannot shake that niggling feeling...

That the atlantic ridge soon gets modeled as a uk cool high/HP...

as the canadian sector vortex shuts the door....and the trough out east backs up!!!!...

Via gfs 12z

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-0-204.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Compared to yesterday there is a clear downgrade I would say, the vortex is stronger and the ridge much weaker.

Yesterday

gfsnh-0-222_jmn7.png

Today

gfsnh-0-198_iop0.png

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UKMO 144 very similar to ECM 00z with enough of an atlantic ridge to prolong the cold to at least 192

IMG_1276.thumb.PNG.e7581194fdc753051af06cd38b69042f.PNG

 

GFS 210 look as though the atlantic is coming through however expect that to change as it will hopefully see a bigger wedge over scandi!

S

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is tremendous this evening - looks much better than GFSs at 144 with a much cleaner route to retrogression in the Atlantic :yahoo:

It is a very nice run, however for me any model that shows a return to more westerly flow early Dec from depression from NW  is on the money.  But this should be a decent cold last week of Nov

 

BFTP

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Some coldies are so hard to please but i'm delighted with the ukmo 12z which has a locked in cold look about it at T+144 hours with wintry weather for the uk..Welcome on-board ukmo!:D:cold:

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Make-it-Snow-Star-Trek.jpg

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Really UKMO is just too good to be true from where im sat, surely the path to Greenland heights is well laid at 144.

GFS  is just junk- it will be another mild wild outlier...imho of course :pardon:

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GEM probably the pick of the models this evening thus far

gemnh-0-162.png?12

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5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Following on from the above post. The view of the experts over here has been to highlight the feature of persistent lower heights over the Azores and the alignment of the jet into NW Europe for some time with a mostly NW/SE axis. The view regarding UKMO is any weakness in the Atlantic high should allow potentially to send troughs SE wards in the t168-240 t time span. ( Picture below ) therefor a flat Westerly is not likely.  Looking into the outlook past this weekend, a significant trough is visualized extending in an axis from the White Sea to Biscay. That's some development, keeping NW Europe in the colder flow. The cold pool between Iceland and Scotland to move to Scandinavia and deepen next week. If heights can be maintained in Mid Atlantic to Greenland, some sort of / North/Easterly component can be expected for the UK next week.  Certainly a milder few days here in the Alps but the prospect of a Scandinavian deep cold pool on the cards is encouraging for most snow lovers..

GFSOPEU06_144_21.png

GFSOPEU12_240_22.png

Evening, following on from the above post. Make no mistake the latest UKMO run is a big upgrade at 144t. The trough alignment is forming in the right place. Firstly, get the cold in place, that is now taking hold with much of Scandinavia and out across the Norwegian Sea to Iceland in a freezing air mass. As highlighted in the above post a flat westerly seems unlikely in the period 144t -240t. 

C

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really UKMO is just too good to be true from where im sat, surely the path to Greenland heights is well laid at 144.

GFS  is just junk- it will be another mild wild outlier...imho of course :pardon:

Sadly it will never make it into a proper GH but what you want is enough of a ridge to create a wedge over scandi when it topples

also Arctic +VE pressure supporting over svalbard-

Ukmo 144 leads into GEM 168...

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