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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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A strong wind and rtain warning issued by the METO

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Heavy and persistent rain is expected across parts of northwest Wales, northern England and southern Scotland on Wednesday before gradually easing during Wednesday night. Many places within the warning area will see 25-50 mm of rain, with around 100 mm possible over higher ground. Heavy rain will gradually clear eastwards during Wednesday night. There remains some uncertainty with regards to the exact location of the heaviest rain. Heavy rain will be accompanied by strong winds across many parts of the warning area.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_8.thumb.png.dc0516e4d208d35474bad1d0c5bc3f60.png

Edited by knocker

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33 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS takes Saturdays low further North whilst the APERGE sees a more Southerly track and as a result, the snow risk is further South too.

winteroverview_102.thumb.jpg.8a327712e9c74491126292adbac58aaf.jpg

Now, given the GFS's love of tracking low pressure systems too far North in these situations I think the APERGE will probably be closer to the mark bringing the risk into Southern England, rather than the North Midlands.

The Ec looks like it dont  have this low but at closer inspection it looks like it might be on the South Coast effecting North France more than us and clearing through a lot quicker...

boom2.png

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32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thankfully the GFS 06 hrs run has a better shortwave track. It might be a case of rinse and repeat with another one heading se later.

The key is to get low heights into Central Europe which hold there. As long as the PV over northern Canada remains stalled there with low heights over Europe that keeps the door firmly shut on any milder conditions .

In terms of the possible snow earlier on I remember reading that the Met Office does take note of the Arpege model.

Yes, a lot of European Forecast Agencies rate the French Model highly, especially its localised short range model span.

 C

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7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes, a lot of European Forecast Agencies rate the French Model highly, especially its localised short range model span.

 C

You can add me to that list.... I rate it very highly....(now) :D

Won't be getting my hopes up though, does look pretty marginal and my mind now is a bit more on the long game for some proper cold as we head into December. Nice to see though.

Edited by karlos1983

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After day 10 the eps develop 5 clusters which should tell us enough about what might lie in store for early December ......

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's great to see the models and Exeter firming up on our first proper taste of winter (in late autumn!;)) with wintry ppn, frosts and ice likely to feature in the forecasts from later this week and at times through next week with snow in places, especially with elevation but some on low ground too, especially further north and east.

PS..Great to see legritter back, netweather will be even better with his contributions..Welcome back:drinks::):cold-emoji:

Yes matey it sounds very much like Exeter are happy that EC 00 operational has the correct handle on the extended outlook (and by proxy GFS6z) with low pressure across Southern Europe and the UK in a cold flow - certainly a far cry from last years zonal hell fest. :)

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not much mild to see here. :D

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.eefb52ba12be22f88065f5e3042f61aa.gif

 

You have to say they are superb Ens- the 00z op was one of the mildest solutions by day 10!!

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to say they are superb Ens- the 00z op was one of the mildest solutions by day 10!!

Yes, I am really happy with them, pretty tight clustering all the way out to D15!(in comparison to what we have been used to recently) GFS wasn't exactly a mild run, but is clearly off on one and not just for London See below. Happy days

ensemble-tt6-berlin.thumb.gif.f504021230eff549679935fb3ce44b83.gifensemble-tt6-warsaw.thumb.gif.17fabbd0993a709c9384698799d7bb73.gifensemble-tt6-leuven.thumb.gif.d5719d9a1147dead1193873d705cee27.gif

I don't like to say throw a run in the bin....but.... there is evidence to suggest it got out of the wrong side of the bed...

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to say they are superb Ens- the 00z op was one of the mildest solutions by day 10!!

Following those gfs blowtorch runs the other day, what we (coldies) are seeing now is really good..hoping for more good on the 12z runs!:D

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23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not much mild to see here. :D

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.eefb52ba12be22f88065f5e3042f61aa.gif

 

What I see in the clusters is a determined effort to lower heights in Europe by D10 - which would aid the path to cold

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112100_240.

Caution definitely required, as there have already been several modelled attempts at this recently which have almost all come a cropper.

If the attempt at low Euro heights succeeds though, then the S word may certainly come in handy. Quite a few ensembles with snow in the first week of December, probably for this very reason.

 

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What I see in the clusters is a determined effort to lower heights in Europe by D10 - which would aid the path to cold

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112100_240.

Caution definitely required, as there have already been several modelled attempts at this recently which have almost all come a cropper.

If the attempt at low Euro heights succeeds though, then the S word may certainly come in handy. Quite a few ensembles with snow in the first week of December, probably for this very reason.

 

The previous attempt failed when it came within the ten day timeframe MWB. At the moment, this evolution to low euro heights looks more credible though where they actually take up residence after the initial plunge remains questionable 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The previous attempt failed when it came within the ten day timeframe MWB. At the moment, this evolution to low euro heights looks more credible though where they actually take up residence after the initial plunge remains questionable 

Indeed Blue- although many of us wrongly feared a protracted period of zonality just a few days ago (well i certainly for one did).

The London EC ens scream Euro low and a continental drift to me, nothing bone shakingly cold but below average and with the potential for snowy suprises along the way- compared to last Dec its chalk and cheese,as it stands .

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Blue- although many of us wrongly feared a protracted period of zonality just a few days ago (well i certainly for one did).

The London EC ens scream Euro low and a continental drift to me, nothing bone shakingly cold but below average and with the potential for snowy suprises along the way- compared to last Dec its chalk and cheese,as it stands .

That is exactly where my head is.. It certainly is not screaming or *at the moment* even flirting with the idea of Mild Zonality! Good times! 

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22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 

 

Caution definitely required

 

 

Caution as always but I'm starting to get a tingle of excitement in anticipation of the cold air sweeping majestically southwards across the uk later this week!:D:cold-emoji:

DPH9_LfX4AAJhSv.jpeg

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Caution as always but I'm starting to get a tingle of excitement:D:cold-emoji:

DPH9_LfX4AAJhSv.jpeg

Hopefully that yellow will be pushed back to southern europe next week :D

Certainly looking forward to model watching at the moment - makes it all the more enjoyable when one isn't looking at charts at 300+ for crumbs of hope.

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AO looks set to go negative again after it's current brief forecasted brushing around neutral, NAO similar.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f43f3ae8a16b4f0302aa79ba85f569cb.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f6e605e13e7e344c81ba4537e755cf70.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml 

Edited by karlos1983

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As I'll be away entertaining my wee grandson whilst the 12Z seeps out, can y'all keep the blizzards blowing for me? Ta mutchly!:cold-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The previous attempt failed when it came within the ten day timeframe MWB. At the moment, this evolution to low euro heights looks more credible though where they actually take up residence after the initial plunge remains questionable 

Let's hope so!!

GFS 12Z looks like it might shut out the Atlantic at T96

gfs-0-96.png?12

Edited by Man With Beard

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gfs-1-78.png?12

A slight southerly adjustment on this run with a more pronounced thermal gradient and therefore heavier precipitation. 

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Friday evening really is looking miserable for many.

Cold wet and windy.

But if some get lucky (Up North more especially high ground) they will instead be treated to heavy snow 

All according to GFS I might add.

gfs-0-78.png?12gfs-2-84.png?12

Edited by Mucka

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