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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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GEFS 00z look good, operational was one of the milder or less cold options midterm - EC brings a cold weekend for most of the UK :)

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Gales possible in the mix for Saturday, Blizzard conditions over the hills for some..

viewimage-17.thumb.png.b86dab60ee1bbfbba0a81a323ab749f7.pngviewimage-10.thumb.png.faaf096a3a794ed574ce287beb9e3a11.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Cold set of ensembles from GFS, below average and unsettled at times. Not screaming powder snow lol, but if conditions are favourable snowfall would be a possibility. IMG_2885.thumb.PNG.a8a0a3c36040586f5999f1d9ec9a8acf.PNG

 

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The ecm doesn't agree with the gfs take for Saturday and has the front tracking south across France on Friday and no developing low to the SW to track north east. Thus the UK is already in the cool north westerly/northerly over Saturday into Sunday.

And still going for a high pressure dominated Atlantic with the warmer air just a flick of a squirrels tail away.

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Gales possible to in the mix..

viewimage-17.thumb.png.b86dab60ee1bbfbba0a81a323ab749f7.pngviewimage-10.thumb.png.faaf096a3a794ed574ce287beb9e3a11.png

Looks interesting PM :) Snow chance across much of the pennines- 

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EC locks in European Low pressure by day 10 - 

ECMOPEU00_240_34.png

:cold:

Looks a bit toasty over Greenland ..

Not a bad way to bring in December 

Edited by northwestsnow

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I have to say this morning's det is a pretty fair approximation of last night's EPS anomaly

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.53d234b79baa850ce4c4ef42d843ad76.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.7c6783ae50170524a0ff8c34d7314896.png

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No issues with a "Euro high" in this chart. Cheeky little run from the ECM, up to its FI teases again?

ECE1-240.gif

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

No issues with a "Euro high" in this chart. Cheeky little run from the ECM, up to its FI teases again?

ECE1-240.gif

Indeed- the only reservation i have with EC is the 144 chart- UKMO doesn't look as 'good' moving forward.

Hopefully EC is correct :)

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No issues with a "Euro high" in this chart. Cheeky little run from the ECM, up to its FI teases again?

ECE1-240.gif

Euro low instead, all very interesting.

GFS is fun to look at, chance of widespread snow on Saturday? The marginal kind with blizzard like conditions possible more so across the high ground, as a flabby low zips through deepening as it does.

 

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UKMO doesn't look all that cold this morning wind come down from the north-west over the weekend but by Monday high pressure moves up from the south which slowly cuts off the cooler flow of air

U96-21UK.thumb.GIF.3ebfd26051962effbde81b942cf1551d.GIFU120-21UK.thumb.GIF.ddca89514e3f2a7ad8c21f7c5a18e99c.GIFU144-21UK.thumb.GIF.7a8b4937ca233900ae7fa7aec22aae48.GIF

UW96-7.thumb.GIF.6bd54584d374b4288bb6b596e8c00b43.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.159bfda188067ffe7480fea932271f55.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.75eab4ae911a4e127c7eb7e050a20503.GIF

UKMO extended

ukm2.2017112800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7fefb7363fe78609a484817f1e04ac30.png

The best chance for some snow could well be Friday night into Saturday when the 850's briefly dip to -4 a more widely

 

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EC Monthly

Week 1

IMG_2878.thumb.PNG.95552b8ced6b38044a1042536e4bad4a.PNG

Icelandic ridge, Mediterranean ridge, Scandi troughing and troughing also deeper in the Atlantic.

Warmer in England, Colder in Northern Scotland.

Wetter than normal over most of the UK.

Week 2

IMG_2879.thumb.PNG.b7a8c28a9ffcc4e53023a3ab8ab44bb6.PNG

Euro trough and Atlantic ridge. Clear jet from the NW over the UK.

Slightly colder in the U.K. in general.

Wetter than normal in Wales and parts of Scotland. Average precipitation for the rest of the UK.

Week 3

IMG_2880.thumb.PNG.35de87e817e58b70c635a574b1ea0c4d.PNG

Troughing over U.K, Atlantic ridging.

Slightly colder than normal in Scotland.

Wetter than normal for most of the UK.

Week 4

IMG_2881.thumb.PNG.7511e82a7d46977b525038fb5654c083.PNG

Troughing over the UK and ridging into Siberia. Zonal jetstream.

Wetter than normal for most of the UK.

 

Overall quite wet and cold at times on the EC46....

 

IMG_2882.PNG

IMG_2883.PNG

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO doesn't look all that cold this morning wind come down from the north-west over the weekend but by Monday high pressure moves up from the south which slowly cuts off the cooler flow of air

U96-21UK.thumb.GIF.3ebfd26051962effbde81b942cf1551d.GIFU120-21UK.thumb.GIF.ddca89514e3f2a7ad8c21f7c5a18e99c.GIFU144-21UK.thumb.GIF.7a8b4937ca233900ae7fa7aec22aae48.GIF

UW96-7.thumb.GIF.6bd54584d374b4288bb6b596e8c00b43.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.159bfda188067ffe7480fea932271f55.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.75eab4ae911a4e127c7eb7e050a20503.GIF

UKMO extended

ukm2.2017112800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7fefb7363fe78609a484817f1e04ac30.png

The best chance for some snow could well be Friday night into Saturday when the 850's briefly dip to -4 a more widely

 

I must admit, the ukmo 00z does worry me. A trend this morning, maybe with the exception of ecm, to bring back an element of west based nao into the mix. 

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We have colder weather in the bag, it's not FI and there is a wintry mix on the way towards the end of this week with rain, sleet and snow, could be some surprise accumulations and followed by wintry showers and night frosts..longevity and intensity still to be resolved but the current mild mush will be sent packing later this week!:drinks::cold-emoji:

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Not liking this mornings outputs which seem to be shifting things west .

The shortwave needs to run se and end up to the se of the UK not the sw as that pushes a ridge north ahead of it into the UK.

The UKMO is a shocker this morning both it and the GFS develop an even more west based set up. The latter eventually pushes the ridge to the se away but now we’re dealing with events well  outside of the reliable timeframe which means even more time for more variables to pop up.

ECM  holds onto it’s Amber warning, the GFS and UKMO are now moved to Red!

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not liking this mornings outputs which seem to be shifting things west .

The shortwave needs to run se and end up to the se of the UK not the sw as that pushes a ridge north ahead of it into the UK.

The UKMO is a shocker this morning both it and the GFS develop an even more west based set up. The latter eventually pushes the ridge to the se away but now we’re dealing with events well  outside of the reliable timeframe which means even more time for more variables to pop up.

ECM  holds onto it’s Amber warning, the GFS and UKMO are now moved to Red!

Oh dear, it's time for some medication!:oops:

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The short term French Model ARPEGE swings back into full winter mode for the British Isles on Saturday morning. -5c 850mb covering most of the British Isles with the frontal wave depositing some snow in the SW Midlands upper areas according to their snow prediction charts. The wider view of this model shows a stronger Mid Atlantic ridge than the UKMO . There is a discussion with our weather service providers later and  will try and find out from them why the UKMO is holding back and showing only a temporary cold invasion from the Northlands which is a worry for me

C

ARPOPUK00_102_13.png

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, it's time for some medication!:oops:

Not yet Ed, there is a change to significantly colder weather within the reliable timeframe with snow in the forecast this weekend..autumn snow;):cold-emoji:

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gfs-2-96.png?6
GFS sticking to its guns for Saturday morning NW of Birmingham has a chance of the white stuff.

gfs-1-96.png?6

This will sink away south East
 

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Can anyone tell me why the EC has no low going through midlands and GFS has 96hr..  And who is likely to be right massive differences here strange???

gfs-0-90.png

ECM1-96.gif

Edited by booferking

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not yet Ed, there is a change to significantly colder weather within the reliable timeframe with snow in the forecast this weekend..autumn snow;):cold-emoji:

I know, Frosty...It's just that yesterday's runs were so (almost) perfect that any improvement is hard to imagine...Uppers could do with being a tad colder, perhaps?

But it is only November!:cold-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone

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GFS 06z strengthens the snow risk for eastern areas of England and for all really away from the SW, rain transitioning to sleet & snow, uppers of -6C I’d expect wintriness to low levels, timing too is important. EC does not develop the low at all strange will await the 12z to see if this changes. 

F6D8EFC0-07E3-46EE-AC3D-6974D368B489.thumb.jpeg.a6032f2b8d9fd65e6e16662321bb914c.jpeg6E263AA9-F93F-40E8-9796-F2F5053E08D8.thumb.png.972c9fb663193f8b312738e602777868.png

 

Edited by Daniel*

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GFS showing up to 4 inches of snow over higher ground of the North Midlands on

Saturday,looks like the sweet spot is around the Buxton/Glossop Area.

C.S. 

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