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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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4 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Don't like the look of that for my patch...looks like one of those atmospheric rivers....again!

Yes it does look a bit that way with the rain band SW>NE but hopefully the heavy stuff will clear early afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Don't like the look of that for my patch...looks like one of those atmospheric rivers....again!

Atmosphere river,thats up there with steves sausage! !!!:friends:

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A good cross model watch concerning this low for the vicinity time stamp alluded to earlier.. Hemispherical view and the low visible on the ECM run interacting with the Siberian vortex possibly the power player in shuffling the deck. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112012_156.thumb.png.cdd37638d5b9ca4433b2c8c4aec27138.png

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40 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There will be another attempt at a block into FI as the cold spilling off the ESB is reduced on the 18z

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

Nice call crewe :)

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23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

3rd time lucky

gfsnh-0-288.png?18

Broadly represents what's possible if the vortex is actually split as per the direction of recent ECM runs :)

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2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

A good cross model watch concerning this low for the vicinity time stamp alluded to earlier.. Hemispherical view and the low visible on the ECM run interacting with the Siberian vortex possibly the power player in shuffling the deck. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017112012_156.thumb.png.cdd37638d5b9ca4433b2c8c4aec27138.png

could I have a link for that site please? I know it was posted the other day but that was just one of those for the frames, I want to be able to view the clusters throughout the run.

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When it walks like a Block, talks like a Block, it’s a Block!

306D03CA-9827-42B1-B3F6-62CB1EDF382F.thumb.png.3eebee207916b2220dc5aa8c60563756.png

long live the pub run! :give_rose:

Edited by karlos1983

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Looking at EC mean a strong and fairly impressive signal for a N Atlantic ridge the Atlantic seemingly blocked off for quite some time - with a cold trough in situ over Northern Europe. Meaning it is likely to not be dry and cold, rather quite showery with frequent wintry showers for favoured places.

Precip would be falling as rain, sleet and snow across the country. This falling primarily as snow over the hills of nothern UK even the hills down south could potentially see some brief cover. It seems for once the EC ENS are largely in agreement with the OP, a rather lengthy spell of temperatures below normal seems apparent to me. Not marked cold but this may change, with very cold air relatively nearby to our north east over Scandinavia, if we were to draw some of it our way, it would turn decidedly cold and wintry. Going foward I would assume the ridge will topple over, unless we manage a Greenland high I don’t think we’ll be able to squeeze enough amplification, with MJO not playing ball. To sustain the cold we’ll need a finger of +ve heights to the NE I feel, I sense something to look out for in the coming days.

A very positive day of model watching if you ask me, and it could be even better a proper cold spell not seen since early 2013 may be on the table. 

6A0F63A1-7348-48A4-B856-61E62057E4C2.thumb.png.753d13429318798f95241d2f947f6d1e.png

Edited by Daniel*

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

When it walks like a Block, talks like a Block, it a Block!

306D03CA-9827-42B1-B3F6-62CB1EDF382F.thumb.png.3eebee207916b2220dc5aa8c60563756.png

long live the pub run! :give_rose:

What a start to December that would be...vortex on holiday to scandy :yahoo:

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14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Atmosphere river,thats up there with steves sausage! !!!:friends:

The rain associated with Storm Desmond was an atmospheric river, as was the 2009 floods...it's a phenomenon I first heard of on here, and is mentioned in a few posts

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Another steady set of Ensembles. Majority Remain on the cool/cold side out to D15

455A6F6F-5208-484E-8D8D-B7E01DA196A1.thumb.gif.8d09474e49d06c4872e25466dd2264b4.gif

Edited by karlos1983

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Another steady set of Ensembles. Majority Remain on the cool/cold side out to D15

455A6F6F-5208-484E-8D8D-B7E01DA196A1.thumb.gif.8d09474e49d06c4872e25466dd2264b4.gif

Clusters 3 and 4 look the best.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017111900_360.

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The overall pattern looks like it will rince and repeat and I think uppers should be ok for some night time snow to lower levels in the south now and again. Probably won't stick but will be nice to see blowing around the lamp posts. 

This repeating process I feel will get more and more potent as actual winter time gets closer so it's a cold mild cold outlook with progressively colder cold spells and less mild mild spells if that makes sense. 

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21 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Another steady set of Ensembles. Majority Remain on the cool/cold side out to D15

455A6F6F-5208-484E-8D8D-B7E01DA196A1.thumb.gif.8d09474e49d06c4872e25466dd2264b4.gif

They are 00z Karlos, here are 12z.

Op actually on the mild side toward the end which is nice. :)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edit Well that is weird it puts up the 12z and then the 00z when you hit post.

That must be what happened to you too

Edited by Mucka

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

They are 00z Karlos, here are 12z.

Op actually on the mild side toward the end which is nice. :)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edit Well that is weird it puts up the 12z and then the 00z when you hit post.

That must be what happened to you too

GEFS pretty underwhelming in FI for the 18z run. Plenty of flattened highs.

Hopefully we see a shift in subsequent runs.

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Does anyone know what the EC46 is saying please?

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEFS pretty underwhelming in FI for the 18z run. Plenty of flattened highs.

Hopefully we see a shift in subsequent runs.

Yes, the op is a huge synoptic outlier.

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they look on the cold side of average to me, at least for london.

hopefully upgrades tomorrow :)

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 hour ago, Cloud 10 said:

An interesting start to winter if ECM verifies.:)

 

Mean 240hrs.EDH101-240.GIF.thumb.png.8316f212afe6327a08efa9542e836dc1.png   Op 216hrs.:DECH101-216.GIF.thumb.png.670ab82f57271a58b6aff81687fcbfed.png

You do realise these charts change every 5 seconds? A massively strong mid atlantic ridge can be replaced with low pressure systems just where we dont want them. Seen so many people hung up on these charts yet they are no better than the operationals imo.

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GFS still showing frontal snow potential for the weekend.

gfs-2-108.pnggfs-1-108.png

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Hmmm bit of a West based neg NAO vibe sneaking into the output.

gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF?21-05

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11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Hmmm bit of a West based neg NAO vibe sneaking into the output.

gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF?21-05

Turns out to be really quite a nice block

gfsnh-0-216.png

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Turns out to be really quite a nice block

gfsnh-0-216.png

But like the current one, not much use to us if it is cold and snow you want.

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00z output looking favourable for the Pennines. A good run. Getting nearer to reliable timescales Fri Sat. Wouldn't surprise me for decent ppn to Southern parts. 

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