Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A reasonable start to the 18z GFS pushing the colder air further SE at 72-84

Looking for some potential mild V cold interaction along the wave @96...

This run doesn't develop the wave feature as much so no sign of any leading edge snow (If any limited to the highest ground in Wales). Sure not to be settled on however for at least another 24hrs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seem to have lost our trigger low tip of greenland 138hrs on gfs 18z???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

This run doesn't develop the wave feature as much so no sign of any leading edge snow (If any limited to the highest ground in Wales). Sure not to be settled on however for at least another 24hrs.

Personally I rather this mess of a set up for Friday does not occur because the air is just simply no where near cold enough for snow apart from the top of the hills, yesterday's output had a nice clean airflow heading into the UK, todays output is now showing this shallow low and all it does is delays any cold from the North West and deliver a lot of cloud and rain, only the ECM kind of keep it well to the South but even this model has backtracked slightly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In this run there is no shortwave transitioning to our side and bringin the cold to the south

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fax charts have updated. The 528 dam into northern France by 12pm Saturday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

In this run there is no shortwave transitioning to our side and bringin the cold to the south

The colder air is actually further south than the 12z

 

gfsnh-1-180.png

gfsnh-1-186.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Fax charts have updated. The 528 dam into northern France by 12pm Saturday. 

Yes that ties in with the BBC forecast earlier.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Personally I rather this mess of a set up for Friday does not occur because the air is just simply no where near cold enough for snow apart from the top of the hills, yesterday's output had a nice clean airflow heading into the UK, todays output is now showing this shallow low and all it does is delays any cold from the North West and deliver a lot of cloud and rain, only the ECM kind of keep it well to the South but even this model has backtracked slightly.

I agree with the begins of your statement, the length of source is too high for there to be sufficient cold for there to be snow down to low levels. Unless there is a perfect combination of undercutting cold air and adiabatic cooling (Unlikely). With regards to the latter of your points, the front actually clears sufficiently to allow respectable uppers for a North West flow (Though still not enough for snow anyway from areas with reasonable height).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Fax charts have updated. The 528 dam into northern France by 12pm Saturday. 

 

PPVO89.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There will be another attempt at a block into FI as the cold spilling off the ESB is reduced on the 18z

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, swfc said:

Not to put a dampner on things but ecm looks at the extreme end ie blocking ete.imo lookiing at today's output id be looking at good Atlantic block pushing north with the pv dropping well to the east

Cool-cold with frosty dry weather after the weekend.good output going onto winter nonetheless

 

.

Not a million miles off ie 18z. On to tom and all change im guessing:sorry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just 1 more run/one more variation.

Still good...

But more to be resolved.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, swfc said:

Seem to have lost our trigger low tip of greenland 138hrs on gfs 18z???

These are actually wave depressions forming on the front, you can see the trough on the 500mb chart, and one does track east to be Ireland by T162

gfs_z500a_natl_23.thumb.png.09e9c48b3c73d8e82d4c460cad92a156.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.227f073420b4d2b0faf33bdc944d6ffe.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_28.thumb.png.efd1517a5c3c355a989fe0eac085a292.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There will be another attempt at a block into FI as the cold spilling off the ESB is reduced on the 18z

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

At t234, if it wasn't for that small low on the SW tip of Greenland, we could have ended the 18z run with a 17th Dec 2010 level of potency Northerly, its stopping that high in the Atlantic from a full on retrogression to Greenland.

 

As it is, its non too shabby, not perfect but better than this upcoming weekends feeble attempt with much better uppers.

gfsnh-0-288_vju8.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

At t234, if it wasn't for that small low on the SW tip of Greenland, we could have ended with a 17th Dec 2010 level of potency Northerly, its stopping that high in the Atlantic from a full on retrogression to Greenland.

Don't worry, that low zips down to introduce the beast from the north. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Further highlighting the variants/divergence..

Northern hemisphercaly a world apart!!

Also placements off the scale...

Its going cold....just how cold...???

All options open atm!!!

18zgfsnh-0-312.png

12zgfsnh-0-324.png

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well would you believe that, the block has another go in FI 

;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, knocker said:

Latest on the possible rainfall

gfs_tprecip_uk2_9.thumb.png.ceb18757772fa21ff90a5ca225f1a02d.png

Don't like the look of that for my patch...looks like one of those atmospheric rivers....again!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...