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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Great charts but never really cold enough for snow away from high ground Midlands north, could get better of course!! Just shows how good Nov 2010  must have been to bring that big freeze so early on in the year !!

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Not to put a dampner on things but ecm looks at the extreme end ie blocking ete.imo lookiing at today's output id be looking at good Atlantic block pushing north with the pv dropping well to the east

Cool-cold with frosty dry weather after the weekend.good output going onto winter nonetheless

 

.

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Glad it’s on the ECM (and not GFS for a change), but still cautious. 

The air, although cold, isn’t freezing. Lovely synoptics that in reality wouldn’t produce anything too special if you took them literally. This is because the 850s aren’t low enough. However, that’s something that can change.

As I remember someone saying years ago “get the overall pattern sorted and worry about uppers later”.

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Good time for people to remember the differences between an amplified atlantic ridge and a greenland high.

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14 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Surely the ramp and moan thread.... joke has surely run to and end now 

hmm, lets see....since when did commenting that the ECM is looking a cool if not cold run, not model discussion eh?....whatever I add afterwards as a bit of banter is up to me......The black friday sales are on this week, I'm sure you can find a cheap sense of humour transplant whch won't break the bank :whistling:

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7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Whats blocked about it?

In my eyes it shows blocking with HP firmly showing it's hand.....Can't see jet stream get though that :hi: for now :doh::whistling:

ECM1-216_rim8.GIF

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20 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Surely the ramp and moan thread.... joke has surely run to and end now 

dont-call-me-shirley.thumb.jpg.2a2bae6706cb30c107da6dcb8d2fa47e.jpg

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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

In my eyes it shows blocking with HP firmly showing it's hand.....Can't see jet stream get though that :hi: for now :doh::whistling:

ECM1-216_rim8.GIF

Hand is a good term when you look at where it reaches from ;-). But that won't stay locked in like that. 

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7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

hmm, lets see....since when did commenting that the ECM is looking a cool if not cold run, not model discussion eh?....whatever I add afterwards as a bit of banter is up to me......The black friday sales are on this week, I'm sure you can find a cheap sense of humour transplant whch won't break the bank :whistling:

One rule for some one rule for others..... 

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Surely EC would bring snow across high ground in NW Britain at times after Fri? Id class high ground as 200m +..:)

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Back on topic please guys, as one or two of the recent posts are certainly more suited to that ramps and banter thread ?

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I’ve seen this phrase used a lot,  so I shall use it. A spade is a shovel.

that high pressure, regardsles of latitude is a block ? Shirley? :cc_confused:

FC15848B-3C6D-4DD1-822A-8FE1B5718559.thumb.png.f48fbfdc98ef9c8507c55dea117853f7.png

Personally im very happy with that ECM this evening.

Edited by karlos1983
Typo

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Surely EC would bring snow across high ground in NW Britain at times after Fri? Id class high ground as 200m +..:)

Not too concerned about that just yet. Compared to what the models were showing a couple of days ago, I am more than pleased with what they are showing now. It's going to feel very seasonal from the end of this week. Much better than what we have become used to over the last few years. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Not too concerned about that just yet. Compared to what the models were showing a couple of days ago, I am more than pleased with what they are showing now. It's going to feel very seasonal from the end of this week. Much better than what we have become used to over the last few years. 

Absolutely...agreed :)

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And the jma is a lot more amplified than it's earlier run too:)

JN192-21.GIF?20-12JN204-21.GIF?19-0

i think sidney will be immigrating to the azores islands at this rate:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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More seasonal type weather on the way by the looks of things but a long way short still of anything resembling a potent cold spell just yet. Far better though than mild rainy mush. It would not take a lot, a tweak here and there to see more noteworthy colder uppers thrown into the mix though.

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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve seen this phrase used a lot,  so I shall use it. A spade is a shovel.

that high pressure, regardsles of latitude is a block ? Shirley? :cc_confused:

FC15848B-3C6D-4DD1-822A-8FE1B5718559.thumb.png.f48fbfdc98ef9c8507c55dea117853f7.png

Personally im very happy with that ECM this evening.

For me, no. I dunno for others. But a block to me is high pressure stationary or slow moving enough that it has the same effect of locking in a pattern. Any form of high pressure somewhere just can't be called a block. 

Of course, I can't see past t240, but I don't imagime that bus parking.

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Well im sure EC looks colder than either Ukmet/Gfs and will produce snow across higher ground.

BBC forecast just mentioned cold air across the country by saturday :)

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