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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It can't be bad, having all that colder whizzing into Europe, either...Maybe, in the long run (depending on how things eventually pan-out, synoptically) no good, but certainly not bad. A good place to start...if that makes any sense?:D

Ah, I think I can see how I confused someone...:oops:

What I should have clarified is that any winds of European origin won't deliver much if said continent hasn't properly cooled down yet...

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

You can tell winter is on the way when the GEM gets trotted out.

In all fairness it has been pretty close to the GFS in terms of verification recently. Perhaps time to make the big three the big four?

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

You can tell winter is on the way when the GEM gets trotted out.

It's not that bad, actually. I like their ensembles, anyway. Can be interesting to see where it leans when the GEFS go one way, EPS another.

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1 minute ago, jvenge said:

It's not that bad, actually. I like their ensembles, anyway. Can be interesting to see where it leans when the GEFS go one way, EPS another.

Agree, it’s when we start rolling the Icon out we need to worry. 

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59 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness it has been pretty close to the GFS in terms of verification recently. Perhaps time to make the big three the big four?

Oh, I'm not casting aspersions on the GEMs credentials. Does get referred to more in winter though as far as I can see... 

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ECM still the most amplified at 120, actually better like for like than last nights ECM.

ECH1-144.GIFECH1-120.GIF?20-0

 

Edited by Mucka

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EC 120

Defo more amplified but don't think we will see a fully blown Greeny/Iceland block- hoping for some re ampflifiaction at 144

Edited by northwestsnow

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The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds Along of course with heavy rain in the north west

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Better enjoy:rofl:

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Could be the last 16C before March 2018. Enjoy it!!

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Don't worry your squirrel will be frozen by Saturday on latest ECM 12z:cold:

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Looks similar to ukmo at 144 :)

EC looks great but we are lacking the uppers imho.

Edited by northwestsnow

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Compared to yesterdays run the low gets ejected west sooner this time

Yesterday

ECH1-168_ywm6.GIF

Today

ECH1-144_giy3.GIF

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Looks pretty cold at noon on Saturday temps widely struggling to get above 3 or 4c highest temps will be in the far south-west where it might just about make 10c

252049aa-be05-4f4f-b3a2-b913503842be.thumb.png.673835280a774c67241a64ef64dcb53e.png

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The ECM 168 is going to be a stonker coming up!!!:D

ooooh!!!

ECH1-168.GIF?20-0

Edited by Allseasons-si

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks similar to ukmo at 144 :)

EC looks great but we are lacking the uppers imho.

I think it's not too bad for a north-westerly in late November - let's see how it pans out.

Edited by mulzy

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Ec12z...very blocky run..

And very amplified indeed..

And as ec-can some time over-ampilfy..

It can also under cook cold/850hpa.

Also on the upside is the mass siberian lobe pv...

All looking v-promising in terms of cold!!!

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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