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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think the jurys out there Karlos- still got those annoying euro heights , they are not helping ..

That short wave ejected pretty cleanly that Nick S was eluding to earlier today. But yes, those euro heights are a concern.

UKMO 144 looks good also. Look forward as ever to seeing the +168 chart later. I'm sure it will get posted :ninja:

Edited by karlos1983

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This is a more cleaner northerly at 192 than the 198 06z too,although we are pushing the boat out a bit:)

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-198.png?6

what heights in europe:D

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That short wave ejected pretty cleanly that Nick S was eluding to earlier today. But yes, those euro heights are a concern.

The trough is pushing deeper and deeper into S Europe though. Loving this chart!

20171120_162627.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That shortwave has broke off the parent one south of Greenland much quicker one the 12z and therefore heights build quicker,def upgrade:D

gfsnh-0-162.png?6gfsnh-0-156.png?12

The trend is our friend today and fair play to ECM for sniffing it out first.

It wouldn't take that much more sharpening and correcting West to get some WAA proper into Greenland and prevent any shortwaves forming S tip of Greenalnd and running over the high which are often the spoilers of potential cold spells.

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

The UKMO 144 looks better upstream than GFS so interesting to see if the 168 chart promises the above scenario.

UN144-21.GIF?20-17

Could we get a boom from ECM this evening?

Edited by Mucka

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Looking at day 5 agreement now with the cold front coming down across England/Wales with back edge hill snow quite likely from those charts..Freezing levels dropping quickly to around 300Mtrs.(GFS).

gfs-1-120.png?12UW120-7.GIF?20-17

would have ready turned the Highlands and N.Pennines white by that time so a couple of cms quite possible over Welsh mountains and the peaks before the drier polar air establishes.Still wintry showers for the nw coasts/hills for a while after though.

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Wonder if GFS is overplaying temps- struggling to see temps get below zero next week in a northerly airflow..certainly away from Scotland.

GFSOPUK12_183_17.png

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Are we seeing something maybe starting to click into gear up top?

npst30.png

Gone is the big blue/purple circular blob that we were seeing...

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wonder if GFS is overplaying temps- struggling to see temps get below zero next week in a northerly airflow..certainly away from Scotland.

GFSOPUK12_183_17.png

Could be northwestsnow,It's better than seeing a 1 in front of those vaues that's for sure,i would take that and we could see snow falling by the end of the week and into the weekend with poss another shot thereafter,bring it on:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Are we seeing something maybe starting to click into gear up top?

npst30.png

Gone is the big blue/purple circular blob that we were seeing...

I wonder if it's taking the Mickey... 

:p

If I'm thinking about this right, there's a good flow alignment on day 9 for some wave breaking across Greenland, using the jet stream as an approximation;
hgt300.png

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h850t850eu.png
Cheeky little ridge appending itself onto the Asian blocking high with cold air stagnating over Scandinavia. If that trough moving through Greenland could disrupt and slide as they often do after passing the high terrain...

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15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is a more cleaner northerly at 192 than the 198 06z too,although we are pushing the boat out a bit:)

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-198.png?6

what heights in europe:D

Agreed, concerns are lessening with each run currently....long may it continue

 

BFTP

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h850t850eu.png  npsh500.png npst30.png
Oh yeah... it's GFS going into lower-res so what was I thinking?

Of course it will, in response to the stratospheric vortex displacement, look to move the whole polar vortex across to Scandinavia or thereabouts rather than breaking smaller pieces off and feeding them across. Not to say it can't pan out that way, though!

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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h850t850eu.png
Cheeky little ridge appending itself onto the Asian blocking high with cold air stagnating over Scandinavia. If that trough moving through Greenland could disrupt and slide as they often do after passing the high terrain...

Yeah I noticed that...

Instead, the vortex bleeds its way in towards Greenland...

gfsnh-0-288.png?12

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I wonder if we could have an 'eye-rolling' reaction option to model development posts as well :laugh:.

 

npst30.png npsh500.png

Wholesale movement is indeed what GFS goes for, but compared to the 06z it also makes more of the usual troublemaker in these situations; residual segments over Canada. THis being why I'd rather see disrupted troughs breaking off and being shoved about a bit by the blocking high(s) that the vortex is looking to displace. We've rarely managed that in the past half-decade though.

npst30.png h850t850eu.png

Liking the stratospheric warming on this run. That makes it two 12z runs in a row to have made the most of the signal. Coincidence most likely but I'd like to see some of the other runs getting in on the act.

As much as this seems slower in terms of the progression compared to the last two ECM runs, it does at least represent an agreement over the general theme of giving the vortex a hard time during late Nov and going into Dec.

Edited by Singularity

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Little low incoming between 96-120 could well produce some northern edge snowfall as it tracks the uk from west to east. Central areas look potentially in the firing line.

IMG_2882.thumb.PNG.677d7a6d46ff68ffaed287bf649af0aa.PNGIMG_2883.thumb.PNG.1f36ca87d22386166c0b36f0e28bf1e8.PNG

Then we have an attempt at what could possibly be quite a substantial ridge being thrown up by the Azores high, nothing to spectacular on this run, but worth watching.

IMG_2884.thumb.PNG.c4a643f0a4877d4af55a78ca5bd8a433.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Liking the stratospheric warming on this run. That makes it two 12z runs in a row to have made the most of the signal. Coincidence most likely but I'd like to see some of the other runs getting in on the act.

As much as this seems slower in terms of the progression compared to the last two ECM runs, it does at least represent an agreement over the general theme of giving the vortex a hard time during late Nov and going into Dec.

IF we can get a decent warming event into December then I may have to change my winter thoughts somewhat...That was a major factor in my pessimism RE this winter.

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It can't be bad, having all that colder whizzing into Europe, either...Maybe, in the long run (depending on how things eventually pan-out, synoptically) no good, but certainly not bad. A good place to start...if that makes any sense?:D

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

IF we can get a decent warming event into December then I may have to change my winter thoughts somewhat...That was a major factor in my pessimism RE this winter.

Steady on Crew, that was almost a ramp :rofl:

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It can't be bad, having all that colder whizzing into Europe, either...Maybe, in the long run (depending on how things eventually pan-out, synoptically) no good, but certainly not bad. A good place to start...if that makes any sense?:D

Last year was the coldest 5th of December since many years, over here in the Netherlands,  and the rest of the winter was just meh (over here, the Balkans got a very different experience) 

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GEM not looking so hot after this mornings eye popping run

gemnh-0-204_sgn8.png

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Got to say on a convective point of view then the thought of a shallow low heading into the UK bringing cold rain with a bit of hill snow is certainly nothing to get excited about so yet again any convective window gets shortened by these nuisance shortwaves/low pressure systems that is just a spoiler in my eyes. Different story if we had some meaningful cold air but we dont so I can't say I'm too thrilled about the short term output at the moment.

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Certainly quite a complicated set up at the end of the week. At Friday 00 the upper trough extends along way to the south west with main centre between Iceland and Norway. Thus the complicated surface analysis of a small perturbation over Scotland, courtesy the main low, but the interesting feature is the low spawned to the south west of Cornwall whilst the front is almost stationary across southern England

Over the next 24 hours the low gets it's act together and tracks ENE whilst little waves form on the front which pushes back north a tad  This interaction continues over the next 12 hours and by 12 Saturday the low is in the North Sea and the front eventually reaches norther France. The question is will this produce snow on the norther edge, more likely on the higher ground in Wales and the Midlands as the warm to the south interacts with cold further north. Certainly once it has cleared flurries could reach further south as the colder north westerlies dominate.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.26cd663c069d6b501eff60331da4f51f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.2cd363a0a41b7627033238e848a9abc7.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.ea9c135c342c6f9550372531e162dd54.png

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.51e8386a5f34b2a5c75fbb42965956ab.png

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18 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

GEM not looking so hot after this mornings eye popping run

gemnh-0-204_sgn8.png

You can tell winter is on the way when the GEM gets trotted out.

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