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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Evening All!  Right out to t+168 The weather remains very unsettled from both ecm and gfs after that a dodgy rise in pressure :rofl:

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks as good, if not better than the earlier operational beyond the next week or so with a strong blocking scandi high / ridge becoming the dominant feature bringing very pleasant conditions nationwide..hope it's right! :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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I would like that Scandi high to stay there for a few month's until spring but......

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Last night's anomalies are still reasonable positive and the medium range outlook remains not too bad if they are anything to go by.

The key factors of the pattern vis the eastern Atlantic are, as ever, the Greenland trough to the north west, the east European high pressure ridging north west via N. Scandinavia into the eastern Arctic, the trough down around the eastern Mediterranean and of course the Azores high pressure ridging in the vicinity of the UK which may, or may not, connect to the previously mentioned ridge.

Ergo still a split in the westerly upper flow west of the UK as one arm is diverted NNE which slackens the flow over the UK and allows the Azores HP some leeway to push north

This portends more settled weather for the UK, certainly the further south, with systems struggling to track east. temps around normal but a quite nifty diurnal range.

Some slackening of the amplification of the pattern in the ext. period,  which is to be expected, but the positive anomaly over N. Scandinavia and the Azores ridging still remain in the box seat as the Atlantic trough weakens. Thus a very slack pressure gradient over the UK so a continuation of the more settled weather would appear the percentage play again with a marked diurnal range. Any systems likely to track NE and impact the north so perhaps not quite so settled in these regions.

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Back to the here and now. A continuation of sunny spells and showers, some hefty, today which tend to die out tomorrow apart from the SE as the ridge moves in from the west. Could get quite chilly overnight as the winds abate and with the clear skies.

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As already noted the ridge has moved in by Monday/ Tuesday so quieter more settled weather is the order of the day with maybe an isolated shower before by 12 Wednesday fronts have approached from the west, with a shallow depression that formed along them north of Scotland, with fragmented rain into the western UK.  The front(s) struggle to make any eastern headway over the next 24 hours as another low forms along them and tracks NNE into Scotland with more persistent rain.

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The front tends to fizzle out as it struggles with the ridge which brings us to the tricky area and how far east will the next trough manage against resurgent high pressure to the north and south west? As of this morning about Ireland until it is rebuffed with maybe just the west attracting any slight rain as the fronts again fizzle out.  The whole scenario is very knife edgy.

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So in a nutshell looking pretty dry and settled for most with the odd blip but what disturbances there are would appear to be mainly confined the west and north

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Edited by knocker
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The ecm has a different take on the slow moving front over the Irish Sea Weds/Thurs and develops another shallow depression on it which sits over the UK on Friday  The fronts from the major depression south of Iceland then traverse the country on Sunday slowly fizzling out en route.as the ridge gets established. To the west in mid Atlantic all sorts are going on with tropical lows winging north.

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And just to add some spice into the mix the gfs adds some explosive cyclogenesis into the mix, Hang on in there HP. there is more on the way

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Edited by knocker
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22 minutes ago, knocker said:

And just to add some spice into the mix the gfs adds some explosive cyclogenesis into the mix, Hang on in there HP. there is more on the way

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Late September will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge nationwide IF the Ecm 12z is right.:)

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Good evening Gang ,Yes ECM looking good for end of the run .Lets hope we do get some good dry conditions ,and some sun , and we all get some warmth by day . Crikey just had several hours of steady hvy rain , thanks fellow posters for all your good wishes ,Great forum ,great community great team work , Stellas on me ,cheers .:friends::yahoo:

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The anomalies last evening, although not in complete agreement, are all on the same page. The upper pattern and outlook are not a million miles from yesterday so I'll not repeat the waffle this morning (hopefully the indications of a few days of more settled weather doesn't keep getting nudged back a slowly until it disappears as has happened on occasion in recent months) So just the ext NOAA and GEFS charts. The EPS is similar.

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Back to the present and the weather finally settling down a little after the last few days with the high pressure pushing east. So showers much less frequent today and tomorrow in most places apart from the east and south east which is still being influenced by low pressure to the east. Also quite chilly in some places this morning with fog in many areas.

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The ridge continues to be influential until midweek until the front and wave arrive from the west bringing rain to N. Ireland and Scotland by Wednesday evening. The front(s) slowly traverse the country on Thursday slowly weakening before petering out which brings some light fragmented precipitation as it does so. But generally the ridge hanging in there but by 00 Saturday a deep low has tracked NE south of Iceland and an associated disturbance within it's circulation has brought some light rain to the west. At the same time the surface wind has picked up from the south west and the ridge pushed south east. Crunch time has arrived.

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From this point it's a question of whether the HP to the north east and a resurgent Azores can hold back the trough driven by a lot of upstream energy. The answer from the gfs this morning, which of course is a long way from being definitive, is that after a struggle, just about, before finally caving.

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So to summarize this week is a bit tricky but mainly dry at first but then some areas, mainly the west and north west being effected by stalling fronts and disturbances tracking north east which is probably best illustrated by the precipitation analysis.

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Edited by knocker
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Last night's ECM clusters show the tendency to set the Atlantic trough west of the UK by D8 (giving hope of a more southerly influence over our shores), but not a done deal just yet:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017091612_192.

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Encouraging from this morning's ecm.  After the passage east of the front on Thursday the next wave tracks NNE with the fronts orientated down the west of the country by Friday 18z with most of the rain concentrated over Scotland. But the fronts decay against the increasing strength of the high pressure to the NE ridging south west to the Azores which is in situ until the end of the run. Always of course subject to revision but I remain optimistic.

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Edited by knocker
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12 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Late September will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge nationwide IF the Ecm 12z is right.:)

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Love the look of these charts anything that throws disruption into the poles early on in autumn. 

High pressure dominated in certain areas heights already been into Greenland and seem to show signs of azores being displaced and now Scandinavia heights showing so a quick surge of cold into siberia. 

Of coarse things could change dramatically what with Maria and José flapping around in the Atlantic. 

Be interested to see if Maria becomes major looking in iceberg thread it does indeed show similarities to irma. 

All good though churn up the atmosphere ready for winter. 

Mean while back here perhaps a settled warm spell. 

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The Ecm 00z builds on last evening's 12z with an increasingly pleasant anticyclonic late september which would hopefully last into next month with a large blocking scandi high becoming the dominant feature..fingers crossed!:)

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GFS 12z has temps in the low 20's quite widely for England and Wales as we go into the final week of the month

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 12z has temps in the low 20's quite widely for England and Wales as we go into the final week of the month

but I have for last few runs been monitoring Thursday's washout for central parts, look unlucky on this, it will arrive in the day and not the night

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Evening All , a lot of weather to come in the days ahead and indeed a High Level of Shannon Entropy as we enter the ten day stage....Not surprising as we have tropical storms Maria now becoming an hurricane and Hurricane Jose dying out across the cold waters of the North Atlantic.....pressure builds to the northeast of the uk but perhaps to far away to deliver some fine conditions....in day ten:nonono:

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Last night's NOAA and GEFS and EPS anomolies still leave two questions unanswered , albeit with increasing confidence in one. They are whether the dry, warmer and settled spell will materialize starting next weekend and if it does how long will it last?

As mentioned there is good agreement that the east European high pressure ridging north west over northern Scandinavia into the eastern Arctic, couple with low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean region allowing the Azores to ridge in the vicinity of the UK and thus putting a brake on eastward movement of the trough(s). So continued indications of a drier and warmer spell for most of the UK with perhaps the west and north west being most at risk of any unsettled incursions.

In the ext period, not complete agreement, but that may be down to the longer lead time with NOAA, but a weak Atlantic trough does nudge east with the Azores not so prominent but this wouldn't be a complete disaster merely a return to more changeable weather inclining to a N/S split. But it would indicate that the dry warmer spell would not become established

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Back in the here and now the weather gradually improving as the HP nudges in from the west. So today fine and dry in N. Ireland and Scotland but rain effecting eastern Scotland later moving south. Elsewhere fewer showers but still the occasional heavy ones, perhaps thundery, in the east. Tomorrow a fine day except for parts in the east effected by the rain moving south.

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But by 12 Wednesday the ridge is under pressure from fronts pushing from the west that are already effecting N. Ireland Scotland and western England and Wales. These slowly track south east over Thursday, petering out as they go under pressure from the ridge so only light sporadic rain before the ridge is back in control by 00z Saturday and the battle lines are drawn between the high pressure to the NE over Scandinavia and the energy banging on the door to the west.

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 And this is of course where the second question comes into play. Initially the HP holds the fort with a genuine easterly flow (oh if it was only winter Sidney)  over the UK but it tends to get undermined by shallow lows in the slack pressure area to the south and by midweek the trough has come a knocking.

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So all in all, apart from the mid week blip, not looking too bad and remaining dry ( with exception of the NW on occasion) and warmer from next weekend with temps maybe nudging a litt;e above average.

Edited by knocker
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Maybe some rain in the far west of Scotland and Ireland later in the week but for the majority, high pressure looks like it could well be in charge with daytime temps recovering quite nicely

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The ecm cooking with gas albeit the surface high not ideally positioned and thus quite strong easterly and temps around average

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But as Sidney said, "It could be worse Knocker and happen in the middle of winter :shok:"

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24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What about this though SS? looks vile, middle of the day as well

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Just looks like a standard cold front to me - not too stationary, so while there will be a period of heavy rain in the west, it quickly moves east, and weakens as it does so (high pressure building):

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I doubt it will cause too many headaches?

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EC clusters - many options at T192 but same general theme: troughing to the west, and possibly south-west. This could promote a warm southerly push for a few days - so long as the trough does not move to far to the south, which may promote a cool easterly

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017091800_192.

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