Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Is there any particular reason why it won't.

As for the 240 ECM I'd take very little notice until we have blocked pattern in place.

Currently lots going on in the stratosphere and vortex still looking likely to continue to be more displaced and dominant over on this side of the pole.

I think it's to soon to throw the towel back in.

Still some wintry weather to come not bad for November.

 

 

Well I just happen to think it's stupid to take too much notice of detail through the days 8-10 which is the relevant period of the charts I posted and to which I referred but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

I've no idea what you are talking about with the towel reference.

Edited November 27, 2017 by knocker

[Scandinavian High.]

Don’t no what all the fuss is about still looking ok models will change slightly the trend is still there for the flood gates to open up from the north.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is an increasingly cold wintry week right in front of us and it's been largely glossed over for what might happen at T+240..funny!

"Winter's over.....etc etc"

As per usual, everyone's looking for the end of a cold snap that hasn't even kicked in yet. Just enjoy the ride

[bluearmy]

Eps less sharp with the Atlantic ridge (not said that for ages) and in the extended period signs that the split flow puts more into the northern arm which is supportive of Exeter’s view of renewed mobility by mid December. To my untrained eye it looks more blocky closer to nw Europe than previous runs in the extended and less undercutty - just the one run though (undercutty can also be used to refer to systems coming into the base of the trough from the nw in this setup)

still a great run btw ............

Edited November 27, 2017 by bluearmy

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remains settled at t168 though the high is continuing to move a bit further east

GFS at the same time

Yes, if those those charts come to fruition from the UKMO , there will a big difference from the GFS. outcome and especially compared to ECM .The UKMO extended N. Atlantic chart continues to show the Atlantic trough to move north and maintains increased heights near to the Azores. GFS starts to retrogress the high and maintains lower heights towards the Azores. I know which outcome I would prefer !

 C

[nick sussex]

Atlantic shortwave frenzy means the road to gold is littered with huge obstacles!

Dear me not the best start to the day with now a convoluted and traumatic evolution to the promised land. The shortwave love-in in the west Atlantic means any evolution is Code Red with extra conselling on offer!

We've lost the clean evolution of last nights ECM and GFS and gone to the Da Vinci Code.

 

[Man With Beard]

Although no snow is showing for most places this Thursday at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of trough or front developing as we get nearer the time. The synoptic situation is ripe for something to pop up. I feel there may be a snowy surprise for many coming up.

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Atlantic shortwave frenzy means the road to gold is littered with huge obstacles!

Dear me not the best start to the day with now a convoluted and traumatic evolution to the promised land. The shortwave love-in in the west Atlantic means any evolution is Code Red with extra conselling on offer!

We've lost the clean evolution of last nights ECM and GFS and gone to the Da Vinci Code.

 

Never simple Nick is it, glad I'm off to work!

[Weathizard]

Although the models aren't showing a clean cut route to Snowman heaven like last nights runs it's best to keep it in perspective, as usual any UK cold setup is fraught with Danger at every corner but we know that, this mornings runs still get us to a very good starting point for a cold spell, at this range shortwave activity is hard to trust.

The ONLY concern I have is the lack of very cold uppers about, but again.. at this stage not worth worrying about too much as seen with the coming cold snap 850's have gradually got colder.

Anyhoo... lets see what the 6 and 12's bring.

 

 

 

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps less sharp with the Atlantic ridge (not said that for ages) and in the extended period signs that the split flow puts more into the northern arm which is supportive of Exeter’s view of renewed mobility by mid December. To my untrained eye it looks more blocky closer to nw Europe than previous runs in the extended and less undercutty - just the one run though (undercutty can also be used to refer to systems coming into the base of the trough from the nw in this setup)

still a great run btw ............

Yes the high does seem to be edging east a tad. The high amplification across North America in the 10-15 period appears to be very typical of a positive PNA. Just saying.

And undercutty I'm off to find a dark room.

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Although no snow is showing for most places this Thursday at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of trough or front developing as we get nearer the time. The synoptic situation is ripe for something to pop up. I feel there may be a snowy surprise for many coming up.

Yes I agree MWB. Fax charts will start becoming important from now on in as far as this week is concerned.

[snowbunting]

I did find it slightly amusing jumping from the excitement and ramping of the 18z to the doom and gloom of the 0z models in the runs this morning whilst reading posts I missed whilst sleeping. 

Anyway the GFS and ECM still continue with the blocked atlantic pattern with high pressure which is always a good place to start for snow lovers. 

Although away out in lala land that 2nd/3rd northerly (Ive lost count)... is still on the table. Look at the -10 sitting just off the North coast of Scotland.  This may very well become the pattern for the whole winter. 

The AO is forecast to plummet... any sign of the polar vortex forming as we plunge into the first month of winter. Even as it does the chances are it eill be blasted away with a SSW event. 

Still very early days. Whilst the models play around teasing us... my gut instinct says cold. 

Hooefully what I have said makes sense, Im still learning!

 

[Methuselah]

So, here we are again: another day of raging hyperbole mixed together with the usual 'winter is over' stuff. Do we know what'll happen at day 10? Will we ever know what'll happen at day 10? Do we really care what's going to happen at day 10?

I really don't know the answer to any of those questions, but, hey, we've a week's worth of cold, wintry weather to get through before then; so, why not simply sit back and enjoy the ride?

Leave the inevitable breakdown to the weather gods? 

[northwestsnow]

Dont know what to make of the 00z runs except to say ukmo is still poor for the uk.

EC/GFS still look good but its all in the unreliable still so until we get consensus at 144 its all ifs and buts.

 

Still a lot of energy in the Atlantic, hopefully the energy will split in a favourable way but who knows..

edit GFS0Z seems to have lost any muted signal it had for strat warming.(it was FI tho).

Edited November 27, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Dennis]

so many options still there LT now we will have the best winterweek ahead first

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows December starting off cold before going less cold into the 1st full week

Edited November 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Chesil View]

I think all this mornings output shows us is the futility of getting too excited or hung up on run to run differences. What one can say is that they are at least all variations on a relatively blocked theme and to be totally honest thats all we have had over the past week. The nuances involved will produce both relatively quiet occassionally less cold charts and snowy nirvana scenarios. It certainly best not to take any output literally in these situations.

I suggested a day or so back that this was a case of Atlantic ridging heading north and not a Greenland high exerting its influence southwards and you will not get sustained cold or snowy nirvana from such a set up. Unless of course we get some genuine retrogression which to my way of thinking was never more than 50/50 at best.

My personal feeling is I would happily miss out on a retrogression for a wedge of hieghts to our north deflecting the southeast to the west of us.

[iowpompeylee]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

There is an increasingly cold wintry week right in front of us and it's been largely glossed over for what might happen at T+240..funny!

Well said Frosty,There's quite a few of us, who have been burned in the past by chasing the T+240 charts. Great for trends but mid to late this week is what I'm focused on. Get the cold in first!! The rest will take care of itself! 

[booferking]

Let's see if the trend for more energy in Atlantic heading north continues another model icon picking this up this Morning.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM shows December starting off cold before going less cold into the 1st full week

Yes Gavin the GEM looks very similar to UKMO at 144 this morning, looks to be a lot of energy spinning up from the cut off low around 120 (just like ukmo) which prevents the retrogression.

I suspect GFS/EC have also picked up on it, dont want to see that trend maintained !!

[karlos1983]

Come on GFS 06z, give us some Monday morning cheer with your fancy new 6 hours worth of data

A change from yellow to blue perhaps 

 

 

[booferking]

Sorry the icon has now updated to 06z run and goes the blocky route show me smiles i dont like tears on a Monday. 

Just goes to show how anyway this could go 96hr-120hr is the time watch out for.

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmm GFS0z was getting towards being a cold outlier in the crucial 7th Dec timeframe.

Its only my two penneth but i think the phrase 'Huston we have a problem' is ringing in my ears this morning

I'm sure UKMO has modelled this shortwave energy ejecting North before and scuppered a previous cold spell- hope history is not repeating itself here!!

On a brighter note some lovely cold weather until the weekend- i'm sure the temps will drop really quite low Tue/wed/thur night..

[karlos1983]

A close match to the the UKMO in the same time frame...

at least we have agreement 

[frosty ground]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm GFS0z was getting towards being a cold outlier in the crucial 7th Dec timeframe.

Its only my two penneth but i think the phrase 'Huston we have a problem' is ringing in my ears this morning

I'm sure UKMO has modelled this shortwave energy ejecting North before and scuppered a previous cold spell- hope history is not repeating itself here!!

On a brighter note some lovely cold weather until the weekend- i'm sure the temps will drop really quite low Tue/wed/thur night..

I think there is a problem I think everything is moving away from cold to just around average. Even if we get the artic air to come south via a block this morning ECM is showing energy getting through the high if that interacts with the artic air it could deepen into a full blown depresion  and cut of the air and send it to the Atlantic 

 

I wouldn' be surprised if this cold spell beyond the weekend is dead by the 12z runs

Edited November 27, 2017 by frosty ground