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Interesting that gfs is still keen give the cut off upper low in south east Europe a more influential role and it develops a broad low pressure area to the S/SE with conduit to the Atlantic trough which to say the least would be quite an interesting development but one we could do without.

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The low in SE Europe is also playing a role with the ecm as it impacts the high pressure to the east and facilitates the Atlantic trough in it's ducking and diving east and thus fronts ingress the UK by midweek

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Evening All! Its quite clear the ex hurricane and tropical storm Josa  is causing serious problems with the outlook from gfs and ecm  at the ten day range although the general consencus is for a big pressure rise to the northeast of the uk ,but pending on the jet stream will this high be close enough to influence our weather? Perhaps for a while ., ecm makes more of ex Josa than gfs. but both models show a quick return from the Atlantic, whatever happens nice to see proper Autumn weather rather than the boring lifeless Autumns of the last few years :yahoo:Looking forward to Hurricane Maria and seeing what she will do to the uk in the days ahead......Interesting Times:yahoo:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Quite an interesting outlook, strong pressure rise forecast to our NE, but we also have a quite erratic uncertain atlantic with ex-tropical storms in the mix. I suspect we will see quite a sharp elongated trough set up shop to our west, its where the energy decides to go which remains questionable. Might we see some sort of shear effect, with energy splintering both SE and NE.. leaving the UK under a wet mess, with heights to the NE too far away to prevent atlantic frontal attacks, but significant enough to prevent any zonal onslaught.

 

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Not complete agreement with the anomalies tonight but the GEFs and EPS are both indicating the eastward movement of the Atlantic trough perhaps being a little earlier than previously indicated and thus perhaps a return to more unsettled weather be the middle of next week, Not a total surprise if this is the case.

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Once early morning fog clears today should be a fine day for all  Later with the low tracking north just to the west fronts will edge in bringing some light rain to the NW overnight and more generally through the day tomorrow as they slowly tracks east. Not a huge amount of rain, the exception being parts of N.Ireland, western and northern Scotland.

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The fronts eventually clear to the east and now the battle between the high pressure to the north east and the energy/trough in the Atlantic begins in earnest with the UK situated on the western flank of the high and thus in the battle zone. Thus by 12 Saturday there is a deep area of low pressure SW of Iceland with the associated front orientated N/S across western Ireland. This traverses the UK over the weekend but slowly disintegrates under pressure from the ridging HP so merely sporadic rain for England. At the same time the cut off upper low in SE Europe is spreading it's wings north west displacing the high pressure north so that by 00 Tuesday a quite complicated analysis of fronts knocking on the door to the west, low pressure to the south and the high cell to the north east is the order of the day.

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The high actually hangs on in there through midweek as the trough attempts to establish a foothold courtesy of the low pressure to the south but this would appear to mark the slow transition to a more influential Atlantic and more unsettled weather. The detail of all of this is a long way from a done deal.

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So in a nutshell over the next nine days or so not a huge amount of rain, with N.Ireland and Scotland being the exception with next weekend being the main culprit, with high pressure generally in charge and temps maybe trending slightly above average.

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Edited by knocker
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A couple of deep lows on this mornings ECM the 1st later this week tracks towards Iceland with the far west of Scotland and Ireland likely to be breezy with rain at times

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The next deep low whips up mid next week bringing a spell of stronger winds and rain for all parts

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Edited by Summer Sun
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this Thursday though SS, is a complete write off, not sure sods law, or scientific reason these washout systems arrive at my location in the day, 8am to 5pm, washout, but dry Wed and Thurs night

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EDIT

Apologies as I hadn't seen the post by SS before I posted vis the ecm so I will delete.

 

 

 

Edited by knocker

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ECM much more unsettled this morning - I'm guessing the fact that Hurricane Maria has unexpectedly intensified into a category 5 storm (all expert opinion yesterday said max cat 3 or maybe touching cat 4) will throw further chaos into the forecasts as it curves north into the Atlantic. Take any forecast with a large dose of salt for the next fortnight.

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The slow transition from high pressure influence continues next week with the upper pattern edging east and the Atlantic trough becoming the influential factor helped by a very a strong jet. But the detail of this remains a long way from being resolved.

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Edited by knocker

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The ecm this evening has the wave on the front impacting Scotland tomorrow evening bringing some very wet weather overnight before it clears well to the north by 12z Thursday leaving the front to track east during the day over England and Wales.

Another little disturbance tracks NE on Friday bringing a little rain as it loses it's identity against the high pressure block to the east. Meanwhile a deep Atlantic low is tracking NE and then north to be in the Iceland area by 00 Sunday with the associated fronts over the Irish Sea attempting to progress east  but also dissipating against the high pressure so just some sporadic showery activity. The high just about hangs in there with light southerlies until late Wednesday when the Atlantic makes a more serious attempt to dominate as fronts progress further as the HP block slips slowly east.

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A better Ecm 12z run compared to the 00z where the atlantic eventually bulldozed through..there is more of a battle with the anticyclonic block to the NE putting up a good fight against the atlantic!:)

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Big Scandi High develops for the last few days of September. Just had a look through the archives. Scandi Highs developed during the last few days of September of the following years - 1946, 1962, 1981 & 2010. Just saying ;)

Don't be such a tease :D

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