Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

This mornings FAX charts have a Pembrokeshire dangler on them!

Looking good for Bodmin Moor for some wintery stuff then

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Early days but currently it looks like a deja vu situation with GFS going for another mild Monday next week in the SW of the UK. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

[Gavin Hannah]

2 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

 

Lets not get too carried away now. That video still shows a chart over 2 weeks away.  Given the current synoptic setup and the next 10 days of charts, I struggle to see how the atlantic is going to ruin Christmas. 

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Gavin Hannah

[ZK099]

2 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

It's in FL so I'm really not concerned with long range output when the models have been struggling with short range modelling recently. The CFS has changed its tune regarding its long range forecast already I think so it's still all up in the air. I'd rather enjoy this current wintry spell than worry about Christmas for now

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

I swear he just copies what the Met office musings are.   

latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes.

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by weirpig

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

 

Lets not get too carried away now. That video still shows a chart over 2 weeks away.  Given the current synoptic setup and the next 10 days of charts, I struggle to see how the atlantic is going to ruin Christmas. 

 

Not to mention the first thing I see there is the CFS....... enough said...

Edited November 27, 2017 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

No change at T+0 then? Phew!

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

It's in FL so I'm really not concerned with long range output when the models have been struggling with short range modelling recently. The CFS has changed its tune regarding its long range forecast already I think so it's still all up in the air. I'd rather enjoy this current wintry spell than worry about Christmas for now

Its in FL? Why is it in Florida? 

[Gavin Hannah]

It should also be mentioned that even though the models have tried to bring in the Atlantic in recent days, the output and temp charts keep going back to a colder / wintry scenario.  That to me suggests that the current pattern is locked in for the foreseeable future.  I could be wrong, but given that every downgraded run has seen a re-upgraded run at some point, I'm hopeful for a wintry and festive December.

[snowbunting]

10 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

Try not to worry.. its based on the CFS and it appears at the end of the GFS run it just resets back to atlantic mode. Reckon that will change alot in next few weeks. 

[Paul]

Locking this now, fresh thread open here: