Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Dare I say ECM looks fine so far at 96h re Atlantic low, actually pretty close to last nights GFS 18z

And that's the crucial time. Still think it will take until evenings 12z to know. Still 50/50 imho. 

[Dennis]

well modells are "thinking" about Scandi setup later-but we first have to follow whats all happening this late November week

Edited November 27, 2017 by Dennis

[Mucka]

ECM 168. Not as clean as previous runs and more reluctant to dig the trough SE and retrogress the high as GFS 00z.

Hopefully they go back to the sharper trough and quicker route to a Northerly later.

Still, main thing is to get to this stage without the high being forced East by the Atlantic low phasing with the trough

Edited November 27, 2017 by Mucka

[frosty ground]

More disturbances  in the Atlantic too.... not looking good

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

ECM 168. Not as clean as previous runs and more reluctant to dig the trough SE and retrogress the high as GFS 00z.

Hopefully they go back to the sharper trough and quicker route to a Northerly later.

 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

More disturbances  in the Atlantic too.... not looking good

 

As long as we get to this stage we should be fine as 192 shows. 

[Duane S.]

ECM making hard work of this.

Not as clean as previously but looks to be (eventually) heading the right way at least

[frosty ground]

Just now, Mucka said:

As long as we get to this stage we should be fine as 192 shows. 

Still shows a depresion cutting through the block which is gonna slow or even stop the cold  from the North 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Still shows a depresion cutting through the block which is gonna slow or even stop the cold  from the North 

Well if that happens in actuality it will be a case of timing and how it phases with Scandi trough. Slight risk of it blowing up and cutting off the flow but could just as easily be of a benefit if it stays as a shortwave and is far enough South.

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well if that happens in actuality it will be a case of timing and how it phases with Scandi trough. Slight risk of it blowing up and cutting off the flow but could just as easily be of a benefit if it stays as a shortwave and is far enough South.

The next chart is cold for Scotland.. . Looks okay if not convincing 

Edited November 27, 2017 by frosty ground

[Daniel*]

In the near term Thursday particularly intrigues me bitterly cold NE’ly off the ‘snowfields’ of southern Scandinavia marginality should be a great concern here  in the SE with low thicknesses and continental flow. Widespread sleet/snow showers moving quite a bit inland methinks. 

 

[Dennis]

well is not "maybe" the best for now but still we have 10 days to this date

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In the near term Thursday particularly intrigues me bitterly cold NE’ly off the ‘snowfields’ of southern Scandinavia marginality should be a great concern here  in the SE with low thicknesses and continental flow. Widespread sleet/snow showers moving quite a bit inland methinks. 

 

Unfortunately it looks the winds don't really favor the showers coming that far inland. More a wishbone affect. But, the fax charts show lots of troughs and weak fronts within the flow which could throw up a few surprises. 

[Mucka]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The next chart is cold for Scotland.. . Looks okay if not convincing 

Certainly not as clean as some previous runs but that was always likely, ECM tends to over simplify the further out it gets.

GFS can over complicate things in the mid term and has a progressive bias.

Synoptic wise though, they are on the same page this morning.

I'm not sure we should see the delayed Northerly as a trend yet though.

My feeling is that this is a fairly progressive run from ECM and upstream will be slower and the trough sharper on other runs but the ensembles will tell us if that is actually the case. - Looking at day 8+ for how many bring in cold air and how many delay it.

As long as it is not fully resolved though I still think the Atlantic low is the real concern and in that context this mornings output is actually good if we take UKMO moving toward ECM and GFS over GEM being rubbish. 

I think we naturally get nervous when on the brink of something worthwhile because we have lost out so many times int he past.

On face value though ECM day 10 is a fantastic chart with Atlantic completely blocked and a frigid Northerly feed - has snow written all over it. Just need it to verify.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Mucka

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Unfortunately it looks the winds don't really favor the showers coming that far inland. More a wishbone affect. But, the fax charts show lots of troughs and weak fronts within the flow which could throw up a few surprises. 

Disagree wholeheartedly, certainly not the best direction for IMBY but I'd expect to see something coming from the north of here, the sort of synoptic that tends to be quite a snow maker for eastern coastal counties. E of IOW that is one keen NE'ly flow with SSTs quite toasty more likely rain/sleet on coast. We'll see.  

[Duane S.]

All's well that ends well

That was hard work watching that evolve though! A bit of a different setup courtesy of a shallow Eastern Canadian wave being added into the mix. I think it would go on to be very good overall though.

Absolutely nothing resolved as expected ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Disagree wholeheartedly, certainly not the best direction for IMBY but I'd expect to see something coming from the north of here, the sort of synoptic that tends to be quite a snow maker for eastern coastal counties. E of IOW that is one keen NE'ly flow with SSTs quite toasty more likely rain/sleet on coast. We'll see.  

ECM shows it, but GFS disagrees, certainly time for it to change

 

  

By Friday however, winds do change to a more  north Easterly..

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Surrey

[knocker]

Interesting that the ecm does force some energy every through the ridge next week which results in a front straddling the country splitting the arctic air and the milder air to the south before it clears the south coast leaving the UK in cold northerly airstream. This scenario would be quite interesting except of course it will not pan out like this.

 

[Ali1977]

ECM maybe making hard work of it but 240 is still a thing of beauty , let's hope we're not chasing FI all winter again 

[Frosty.]

There is an increasingly cold wintry week right in front of us and it's been largely glossed over for what might happen at T+240..funny!

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is an increasingly cold wintry week right in front of us and it's been largely glossed over for what might happen at T+240..funny!

Too right Frosty. Looks like some frigid air for most of the UK and Scandinavia by Thursday. Lets see what happens then. T240 will evolve and change on each run.

 C

[karlos1983]

So UKMO doesn’t back track with its tail between its legs as we hoped. GFS takes a step back, as does the the ECM. Not the Monday morning I was hoping for, and it’s a concern for the coldie in me. Especially as ECM is probably the pick of the bunch and we know what it’s bias is. 

A nice 06z would help put concerns at bay, by no means is anything a done deal either way yet. At least we have a cold week ahead. 

Edited November 27, 2017 by karlos1983

[MR EXTREMES]

35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting that the ecm does force some energy every through the ridge next week which results in a front straddling the country splitting the arctic air and the milder air to the south before it clears the south coast leaving the UK in cold northerly airstream. This scenario would be quite interesting except of course it will not pan out like this.

 

Is there any particular reason why it won't.

As for the 240 ECM I'd take very little notice until we have blocked pattern in place.

Currently lots going on in the stratosphere and vortex still looking likely to continue to be more displaced and dominant over on this side of the pole.

I think it's to soon to throw the towel back in.

Still some wintry weather to come not bad for November.

 

 

[Paceyboy]

Pessimistic models in the morning as always. I can literally only remember a handful of times over years when they actually showed something better for cold than the night before.

They still show decent cold spells but last night were showing a potential prolonged period or even freeze.

Background signals seem to be somewhat on our side anyway!

[Dennis]

lets see who will "win" the modell puzzle 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended remains settled at t168 though the high is continuing to move a bit further east

GFS at the same time