Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[SMU]

New Mod ern Winter for southern Greenland- Record breaking warmth of +8c @850 ...

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Would look something like this.

I spot a little green spot over Crewe

C.S

[Frosty.]

Lordy lordy  I'm in 18z winter wonderland Narnia heaven...dream charts, it's a pleasure to post them tonight!..Boom..Epic..if Carlsberg did Gfs 18z runs..etc

[Daniel*]

A truly formidable block on GFS 18z tiresome stuff this deluge of cold stuff so early into proceedings. UKMO adding welcome restraint even though I strongly sense by the morning it will switch over at last..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Haha right at the end of the run...that's your 1962 evolution...Greenland to Scandi link up

Difficult to see how this 18z run could be bettered.

Edited November 26, 2017 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

Incredible stuff from the GFS. 

The UKMO is so far off the GFS and ECM it has to be wrong...... 

Shirley?

 

 

[tight isobar]

Epic modeling from 18z..

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Haha right at the end of the run...that's your 1962 evolution...Greenland to Scandi link up

Difficult to see how this 18z run could be bettered.

Epic!!!

[Ravelin]

And where are we by the time we get to the end of the GFS 18z run... 

Still stuck in a rut, one likely full of snow by then. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Ravelin

[Ian Francis]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again russian warmth is becoming a solid format in evolving cold transfer.

From the hotel whisky a go go making ice cubes from north pole..

Into bycycling 855s of -45..

Soon to become the husband of uk . .

Whos bird greeny blocky will step in for the separation!!!!

??sorry could not resist!!???

i've run that through google translate and it still isn't making sense

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Here's the icing on the cake.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017112618&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017112618&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

[northwestsnow]

18z is absolutely bitter- i could post so may charts but here is my favourite- look at the time and the temps !

That would defo make all the chasing worthwhile, in December, like crewe said, short days polar winds..amazing- but it is it a mirage?

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A cold high would just out the icing on the cake as far as this run is concerned-gawd i'm dreading looking at the 0z runs..

Absolutely.  I think we have a 'that GFS' run.  The consistency over the last two days of the ECM and GFS has been notable.  UKMO is looking like it's messed up, it could be right but I don't think it's anywhere near right on this occasion.  To me, the next three weeks is looking like quite cold/very cold/mild/cold/very cold/snowed in

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Haha right at the end of the run...that's your 1962 evolution...Greenland to Scandi link up

Difficult to see how this 18z run could be bettered.

One of the best runs I have ever seen in 14 years of model watching. 

[Met4Cast]

Just musing.. but the ECM clusters are solid.

[karlos1983]

Don’t you just hate it when these stubborn setups become established.....with apparently no end in sight!!

 

[Nick F]

12 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

This amazing northerly shown by the gfs, what does it show for snow prospects countrywide?

At 9 days out, I would no more trust a chart showing snow than an email in my spam box wanting to pay me money if I do a small favour transferring money into my bank account then back out again but, some organised snow coming down the country on Tues 5th?

I'm sure the models will try and ruin our dreams at some point subsequent runs by throwing in some 'pesky shortwaves' from the NW to slow the progress south of the deep cold ... surely?

Edited November 26, 2017 by Nick F

[swfc]

For any new or younger members you may do well to bookmark the gfs 18z tonight. Very rarely do you see such a run that sustains a block which gives such great synoptics esp so early in the season.will be different tom but fantastic to see

[snowice]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A cold high would just out the icing on the cake as far as this run is concerned-gawd i'm dreading looking at the 0z runs..

I bet you have the alarm clock set for 4AM

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Don’t you just hate it when these stubborn setups become established.....with apparently no end in sight!!

 

We won’t be able to get out in the car ?

[SMU]

NOAA need a new scale for the AO as its been battered today-

lets add -7.

[cheshire snow]

Well if the GFS 18z is correct,enjoy this weeks Heat wave

C.S

[Decemberof2010]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

One of the best runs I have ever seen in 14 years of model watching. 

Wasn't there a GFS run last year, that was absolutely ridiculous? I remember talk of 3 feet of snow and minus 17!! There wasn't any back up however like this time. Fingers crossed fellow coldies, it's been a long wait!

[ICE COLD]

Yep what another amazing run . It's so frustrating about the ukmo not being on board ?. I really will not wanna look at the 0z runs . Please , please , please ukmo come on board . Do not ruin my week  . What a chart this is . 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here's the icing on the cake.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014110218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017112618&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017112618&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

 And a very nice cake too. Something is definitely afoot.

[Nick F]

Russian Goliath meets Atlantic Goliath?