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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 hours ago, Interitus said:

The Canadian warming is not named by the location of the warming, its basic characteristic is that it is an intense development of the Aleutian anticyclone (stratospheric) which moves over Canada and displaces the vortex to the Eurasian side.

Fair-doo-s. 

However atm its probably not a bad thing to refer to' the 1951 papers!

And given emense' fluxing/waving to an' almost bizzare nature...

Perhaps balloon data could resolve things a tad better...i' e trop/strat..

Northern hem.

#thermodynamics

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Frosts persisting all day for some from Wednesday, With Dp well below and snow showers over coastal fringes. A typical set-up under a clean Northerly.

viewimage-16.thumb.png.3ae7dd18238a6d149137c8e5bdbdcd7b.pngviewimage-21.thumb.png.3d02731a62efccd7d2ea293b1cc6712c.pngviewimage-19.thumb.png.bd06b55923f0c5470dab825886526494.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hopefully GFS already correcting.

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Neg tilted low off Canada and trough better defined

UKMO now wants to be the fly in the ointment, always one isn't there?

UN144-21.GIF?26-17

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

retro/atlantic advection..

out of the stools quickly here.

Not a lot of nuancies either..

Up she blows..?

Screenshot_2017-11-26-16-12-09.png

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

how very dare they! they've taken my personal snowstorm and given it to the rest of the southern counties! :shok:

prectypeuktopo-3.thumb.png.1816e25d3a2f73f0c4968adce9875cdc.png

never mind though, its only a rough guide and this run gives an increase on general snow amounts for this week. :D

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Still have/need to have shallowing at the pole..

Idealy with a climb of height exactment to meet like mr/mrs...

 

Screenshot_2017-11-26-16-19-14.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

retro/atlantic advection..

out of the stools quickly here.

Not a lot of nuancies either..

Up she blows..?

Screenshot_2017-11-26-16-12-09.png

Love that word, TI...Our weather has been firmly in the stools for the past five years!:laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

it will be a monster:D

758.png

You maybe right, this at 186......incoming!

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The swing in change of output on gfs so far today is incredible in auch a small time frame. Given the changes coming off the esb its still dramatic imo and anything beyond 90hrs for me is up in the air!!! Ukmo light years away also from gfs and ecm

 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS much more amplified now @174- looks identical to the ECM with Greenland becoming under the spotlight for high pressure!

IMG_1375.thumb.PNG.70c518a16ff1bbd70f93cafa7c753260.PNG

Still a worry not having the UKMO model on board though Steve...

Hard to see where we go from that day 6 UKMO chart

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18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Still a worry not having the UKMO model on board though Steve...

Hard to see where we go from that day 6 UKMO chart

Yeah - athough most people would agree its been off the pace lately on this whole evolution !

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Still a worry not having the UKMO model on board though Steve...

Hard to see where we go from that day 6 UKMO chart

Indeed. I suspect the ECM Op later will sit halfway between the  GFS and UKMET.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Indeed. I suspect the ECM Op later will sit halfway between the  GFS and UKMET.

 

A bit like the 6z GFS from this morning then :p

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Earlier on around the 72 hour to 96 hour mark that cold pool has been pushing west on pretty much the last 3 or 4 runs!!even when you compare yesterdays ukmo 120 hour chart to todays 96 hour chart you can see the cold air is much further west compared to what it was showing yesterday!!so if we seeing changes this early on god knows what will happen later!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Didn’t we need a few bites at the cherry back in 2010?

9B012D22-F0B8-4234-AA18-4DDD16661C83.thumb.png.e97ae1749c79ef0526afce32ddb01b68.png

looks a stunner this! 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Great from the GFS so far more amplified , the UKMO is poor in comparison and the differences start at just T96 hrs with the handling of shortwave energy to the west .

The GFS splits this allowing the high to retrogress at T120hrs hrs the UKMO doesn’t and boxes the high in.

It’s like pulling teeth sometimes , can we just have a drama free evolution !

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

GFS and ECM very much on the same page at 204 (216 on this mornings ECM)

GFS

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

 

ECM

ECH1-216.GIF?26-12

Shame about the UKMO, but this is really encouraging

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

I’m going to get divorced at this rate. 

Been on my phone for the past 7 days.

Looks like i’m going to be checking the output for the next few weeks. 

GFS brings in the cold with a second push of heights into Greenland. 

963D81BE-FDEA-464A-AC42-4AEE38F273D8.thumb.png.fad2444d20636b88c6a8bdef33511123.png

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