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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Nice looking charts again this morning.Although I would urge caution to anyone expecting a 2010 repeat (for now at least). Back then we had a genuine greenland /arctic high building east to Svalbard and south into the Atlantic. What we have this time is an amplified Atlantic ridging extending north. These are two very different creatures.

However there are some retrogression signals in the extended outlooks so one never knows what might occur down the line but for now I do not see the charts showing a Dec 2010 repeat.

Obviously this comes with the caveat that I hope I,m proved wrong over the coming days. Lol

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2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Nice looking charts again this morning.Although I would urge caution to anyone expecting a 2010 repeat (for now at least). Back then we had a genuine greenland /arctic high building east to Svalbard and south into the Atlantic. What we have this time is an amplified Atlantic ridging extending north. These are two very different creatures.

However there are some retrogression signals in the extended outlooks so one never knows what might occur down the line but for now I do not see the charts showing a Dec 2010 repeat.

Obviously this comes with the caveat that I hope I,m proved wrong over the coming days. Lol

I thought 2010 was once in a 100 year event? It's only been 7 years, techically we have another 93 years to go before December 2010 happens again! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

In the nearer timeframe, perhaps this moment next week could turn into a talking point. GFS used as an example here.

tempresult_xpd9.gif

This is the point where we see that cold pool west of Norway moves south, now there is the chance that an organised area of precipitation could move south with this, we could see a secondary low develop in response to this in the nearer time frames. Something to watch with 850s borderline (-6 to -8C) for snow risk. I think there is the chance we could see some of the white stuff on Thursday if we do see something develop along this wave.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
3 hours ago, Mucka said:

Yeah finishes with a big fat Greenland high.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Obviously JFF but the main takeaway for me is that the pattern stays amplified.

What a performance from the models this morning and to have them singing from the same page. I had to double check the calender as I thought it was 25th December today with all of the early morning pressies.

I know it's often rolled out,  but once a block sets up they can be stubborn to shift. TBH I'm more surprised there's no signs of the models trying to nudge in a way to falsely shut down the blocking which is their normal default of the last few noticeable spells. 

This is certainly looking like it could be a memorable one and it's difficult to know what's round the corner, as its rare as hens teeth seeing the charts on offer for our Atlantic island. Time for the Xmas bedding me thinks, hopefully won't jinx it like last year :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the nearer timeframe, perhaps this moment next week could turn into a talking point. GFS used as an example here.

tempresult_xpd9.gif

This is the point where we see that cold pool west of Norway moves south, now there is the chance that an organised area of precipitation could move south with this, we could see a secondary low develop in response to this in the nearer time frames. Something to watch but with 850s borderline for snow risk, some places could see something wintry on Thursday.

Yes I did touch on this in an earlier post

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_21.thumb.png.cdd18c50bad17a441a56dfa1d61f5432.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
9 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

I thought 2010 was once in a 100 year event? It's only been 7 years, techically we have another 93 years to go before December 2010 happens again! 

It doesn,t really work like that. 1947 was a once in a 150 year event but 15 years later we had 1963.   The once in a hundred year description is a statistical description of the expected return period which is great for statisticians but often completely meaningless in the real world where nature and not statisticians decides what will happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

It is good to see a promising long term pattern (relatively speaking) developing. However, I am a bit underwhelmed with how fast both GFS and ECM cut the cold flow later next week. The UKMO is big improvement from yesterday and it is the coldest of the main three models. Not only it gives us the northerly but also then turns northeasterly prolonging the cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, Ryerson said:

The Cumbrian floods of 2009 were apparently a once in several hundred year event.  Then 6 years later...

In regard to 2010 the ssw ete and strat signals were different tbh

Today's output as imo moved up a notch but still with the caveat that things can and will change at short notice.All that said the pv looks out of sorts and blocking ie ridges to seem to be building at will and the esb still doesnt look like pushing any cyclogenics into the atlantic. All good going into December so far!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

For all the talk of similar synoptics to 2010, it should be borne in mind that there was a significant cold pool to our North East then.  The cold is not there (yet).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It looks like Thursday will be the coldest day for the 850's in this current spell though we remain below 0 for the foreseeable future on the mean

London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.7be447c5299b604917d73fb0afde97a1.png

Northern Scotland

graphe_ens3_php.png2.thumb.png.f8069c85ea2dc6b80a8862cb538bb609.png

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
46 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

I thought 2010 was once in a 100 year event? It's only been 7 years, techically we have another 93 years to go before December 2010 happens again! 

That’s not actually what it means. 1 in 100 years just means a 1% chance every year. There is the same chance of 2x 2010 events in concurrent years as there is of there being two events 100 years apart.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
47 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

I thought 2010 was once in a 100 year event? It's only been 7 years, techically we have another 93 years to go before December 2010 happens again! 

Im sure the 2009 floods was 1 in 1000 year event, but only 6 years later, it was even worser.

But the model have been and are looking epic, I fully expect some snowfall for many parts during later next week, no promises yet but like others have said features usually pop up in these deeper 850s :)

And hopefully a pre curser to a memorable winter 2017/18.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
17 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

For all the talk of similar synoptics to 2010, it should be borne in mind that there was a significant cold pool to our North East then.  The cold is not there (yet).

 

I have heard several comments like this on here, but having seen nothing really worth talking about since the winters of 2009 and 2010, and so many heartbreakingly close but no cigar moments, what we are lined up for is by far and away, the best thing since sliced bread. If you will pardon the anaology.  Temperatures are already dropping everywhere and we have probably had more snow on the mountains in the last few days than we did the entire of last winter.:yahoo: , with more on the way, which is great for those of us who like to ride the magical white powder.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Little less amplified on the 06z but the theme has not changed!! Cold

ABB129CB-856F-4CD5-84F5-C9F3FB1B21B5.thumb.png.cb36a210fefa1daee6f7503e3e89bb48.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

GFS 00z run reminds me of the build up to one of the most epic months of 20th century.  Block to our E/NE in FI and a LP has nowhere to go but to move N to S to bring in an easterly feed as HO establishes itself again toIceland and Greenland.  This was how end of Jan 1986 set up leading to the frigid Feb 1986.....a sub zero month.

Will it happen?  Not in my thoughts I have to admit for this winter but the PV is all over the place and the jet is wildly meandering.....as we head deeper into what could be a major solar minimum.  Very interesting times indeed.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Subtle differences on the 6z up to 120, less amplification in the Atlantic but the chance of the Greenland high linking with the Russian maybe?  Still looking very cold in the reliable.

gfsnh-0-120.png?6  gfsnh-1-120.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Seems to be more potential for a build of high pressure over Scandi on this run

GFSOPEU06_120_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Little less amplified on the 06z but the theme has not changed!! Cold

ABB129CB-856F-4CD5-84F5-C9F3FB1B21B5.thumb.png.cb36a210fefa1daee6f7503e3e89bb48.png

This run will be interesting as it looks similar to the UKMO output from this morning as that trough to our east starts becomes cut off by the Atlantic and Russian ridges building over the top of this. This is another option and importantly it is another cold one.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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