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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nigh-on perfection..

Pin-point ridging..

And well within reliable...

 

gfsnh-0-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Once the cold is in show chances will pop up short notice 

So very true, especially with charts like this

26E7912D-8A77-430E-A7BC-A24F0B7F491B.thumb.png.e698636f03fd0f6fc0e42c1b32da8084.png

And only 4 days away 

BD8A5B55-008E-49D8-8ADA-4C5BCED92423.thumb.jpeg.ffb1dfd0f2e5b67806c07dcfc7e4a378.jpeg

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU18_120_2.png

The uppers associated with the midweek northerly seem to be getting slightly colder with each run :)

Just like the GFS 12Z so far.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Signals picking up lively for 850s now..

Tapping into some 'true' arctic air....

gfseu-1-126.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A couple of off topic posts have been removed. Model output talk in here and chat/banter to the other threads please all. 

Thanks :smile:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

What sort of temperature would we expect in the south east if that came off?

At this particular stage around 5-7 c..

But quickly going down.....

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The BBC extended forecast appeared to be going with the UK model output tonight 

Will tomorrow's UKMET move to the rest?

Well that's a surprise, earlier forecasts have been more representative of GFs/ECM ouput last couple of days.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Still looking superb over the UK at 150

gfsnh-0-150.png?18  gfsnh-1-150.png?18

Not sure about the longevity of the cold beyond the next few frames, but the most important part of the run is looking just dandy.  Great stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Get your teeth into this:D

GFSOPNH18_105_1.pngshutterstock_138391979-713x1024.jpg

stunning output now,and we can start to look for upgrades nearer the term,ie:- temps and ppn and of caurse,features that pop up in the next few days:)

like the one running down the country @ 174

gfs-2-174.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

Been out after work tonight, had a few scoops, logged in and read 4 posts, seen this chart, checked today's date ........boom!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Some deeper cold now approaching from the east....

gfs-1-210.png?18

Perishingly cold run this so far.  Could get really cold at the surface in any slack winds

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Going for the double ridge link...

Iceland to scandi...

Quite incredible....

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Possible easterly lining up in FI !!

IMG_1326.thumb.PNG.e77e9f5c694f55ace8593821abfe1e21.PNG

 

stationary air at 198-204 over most of the UK means perishing cold over any snow fields...

Similar to where the control went

gfsnh-0-216.png?18gensnh-0-1-228.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes- that cold pool over scandy did lead to heights building- some very cold uppers now situated inPoland/Germany/into France- its actually a cracking run in that the block moves to settle over Scandy and thats good news for coldies 

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