Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ooooherrr!  +96! I’ve just shown everyone whys it’s best to just wait LOL :whistling: back to school for me 

0BEDA751-FB5B-4088-95D4-82A3D992CA90.thumb.png.be6f567500b8e37060f29573af7577e3.png

That ain’t no UKMO !!

Wonderful chart :yahoo::cold:

Nothing like ukmet !!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

And @  only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted

I keep having to remind myself these charts are in the reliable timeframe!

Stellar ECM so far and isn't it great not to be chasing Northerly topplers at 300 hours plus!  :cold::santa-emoji:

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
6 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Oh, I actually thought BOM was a genuine model. I don't know why but it triggered a memory that it was an Australian forecasting simulation? 

It is

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM can prove me wrong anytime it likes. What a stunner

F2AB7B5F-FB74-4FB2-8E3E-05ED572457A1.thumb.png.09e4821557e41eb60815f920ba02c9b3.png

the wife on the other hand ...:nonono:

You know that she is stood behind you:rofl:

ecm at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?24-0ECH0-144.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

And @  only +120h, ecm is seldom wrong at that range 

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Great ECM! Now I can go to the supermarket with a smile on my face.

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got everything crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

Edited by Smartie
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

High pressure oriented even better than the GFS. One negative though is that Svalbard low is not yet fully committed to going South, nowhere near as bad as the UKMO situation though. 

 

Edit: turns out it is as bad as the UKMO regarding that low pressure. We need the Svalbard low to join the Scandi low better otherwise HP will break through between the gap.

Edited by Snowy L
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Cracking...

Ourselves and n/e france /western low countrys have own own cold pool @144.

Any precip-would almost certainly be of snow/moreso eastern most...

Although at this stage precip open to questions?!!!

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Devonshire Enthusiast

Devonshire

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Posted

Am novice, so be kind if I am fantasising - but could that suggest the possibility of a cut-off Iceland high coming up?

image.thumb.png.14a57b1b46577e85acf491c7a68c3696.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

Not how it is atm. If and when it gets its act together we want the high retrogressing so energy will go underneath.

Edited by joggs
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

If that 144 chart was to verify, I don’t think many netweather members would be unhappy! 

C30C23F1-E2F2-40BD-9AA9-E64E540E53F6.thumb.png.d4cd11d9e2444328716e6f79d69912c1.png5E8EE14F-4DC0-4CBF-B0A5-A729244448E4.thumb.png.8412f60615dd3d0b1e2430d589dde225.png

Apart from this chap of course 

5656017A-67F0-40CB-B143-C0B45F78B12C.thumb.jpeg.0252179a2105039991263627f7dd4382.jpeg

 

 

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Could really do with the ukmo onboard though, I remember previous years where both the gfs & ecm were showing cold charts and the ukmo wasn't buying it and it turned out to be correct. I've got evening crossed that this time it's wrong and the gfs/ecm is more on the ball. 

That's true but there is always a chance the UKMO will join the party tomorrow. If the ECM was going the UKMO route this evening then I would have discounted the gfs.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
4 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Looks great but is the PV anything to worry about? Only asking as im always hearing its a worry if it gets its act together. Thanks. 

I'm no expert but I think this could be very bad for the pv, as these blocks can often be precursors for ssws 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

ecm at 168,heights building back up into Greenland and a trough looks like it's going to head south,northeast of the high,this is what the gem did.

ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

at 192,we have velociraptor in the NH:rofl:

ECH1-192.GIF?24-0Velociraptor.jpg

trough dropping down from the north:)

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ecm at 168,heights building back up into Greenland and a trough looks like it's going to head south,northeast of the high,this is what the gem did.

ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ACCOUNT DELETED Enthusiast

ACCOUNT DELETED

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jonan92 said:

Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO

At some things yes but it does tend to overestimate the CAPE & Lifted amounts when forecasting storms. Many times I've seen (for example) up to 700J/Kg with a lift of -3 when it was more like 300J/Kg and a lift of -1 on the GFS. To be fair Arome also does this too the problem is it also affects the precipitation charts with lots of widespread heavy rain showing instead of scattered heavy showers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep....

My wish was granted.. now for the GFS 18z to get in on the act...

It has now also got the centre of the high North Of Scotland.

Ready to create a Murr sausage by day 12.!:cold-emoji:

 That will really be something.

 

MIA

By day 12!

you mean ten?

216,don't know what will happen from there,prob a re-load from the north,but all academic at that stage.:)

ECH1-216.GIF?24-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Hope to see the russian high becoming more prominent in coming suites...

Holding the trough out-west a little longer...and firming waa to greenland...

Then the uppers-margin would also be favourable for us...

A good ecm 12z....anyway.

Screenshot_2017-11-24-18-50-59.png

Edited by tight isobar
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Building Blocks Rookie

Building Blocks

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

I think one major positive to take from the runs at the moment, in particular the GFS, GEM, and ECM but also the UKMO to some extent, is that these good looking charts for cold lovers are appearing at a relatively short timescale and not deep in FI (like is usually the case).

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted (edited)

Very quiet for such a good  ECM,  are members frozen:cold::rofl:

Edited by snowice
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

As much as the output from the 12z gfs and ecm, ukmo erm not so much looks cold and seasonal I just feel we could do with a low sliding down towards Iberia to prop it up or a risk reward scenario a low sliding on a nw se axis through the channel into France which could trigger the Siberian express to come our way. Still nevertheless a good day model watching. I'm going to join the 18z in the pub.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...