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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS 12z already much better than very progressive 06z.

gfsnh-0-78.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GFS looking better early on, better WAA than the 06z at the same time frame. The low more elongated between Canada and Greenland. 

lets see where we end up. 

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ICON is often a pretty good version of ecm out to day 6/7. Not always though.

Oh thank you BA - that's something to bear in mind - Sorry ICON! and no pressure....

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z already much better than very progressive 06z.

gfsnh-0-78.png?12

Was just about to say GFS has things bit further west and ridge is better aligned to.

Although I'd rather the lower heights go under the block that but pressure to our south and southeast much lower so that's another positive.

Im really starting to see similar developments to winter 2009/2010.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

No sign of that short wave Deeping of eastern sea board which could sink the high much better 12z

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good start to the 12z gfs!!low in the eastern states more west and better amplification around greenland!!looks like the 00z run!!

It doesn't look like the 00z run. In that run the high was tilted to towards Canada, in this run the lines are quite straight, it's similar to the 06z run but more amplified

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, booferking said:

I feel a boom coming early on on better heights in to the Arctic.:D

gfsnh-0-78.png

That's great news...I'll not need to wheel-out the BOM yet, then!:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The really cold uppers starting to spread south across the UK, Scotland into some frigid air by +108

0DEF9906-038C-4979-9D10-D8D533BF2961.thumb.png.7e4a44fe8b0ea17a70d546dafbbbf952.png7CE06BE7-E95A-4A4D-A747-EB888E5934E5.thumb.png.f50be71ad33bde3dfdb19c48247b7f5d.png

A few kinks in the isobars which means precip is likely!! Of snow of course :D

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO ok, but makes a bigger deal of that low.

+72

751AE13D-7706-4C9D-9566-318B65B806AB.thumb.gif.69f58316b4c999baf85262cf1107c95e.gif

+96, certainly not warm 

BB5AC69D-9CE6-47A9-9D45-1DA25B3F61F1.thumb.gif.64fcbebb01cf72dbcb60e78cf6cd755c.gif

Meanwhile the GFS is a peach

7AF2066F-E13A-4179-B0E0-707C06685483.thumb.png.9c457bdcafd2f8beac23d14104bcd5f3.png9408CC4F-98E1-4563-97BB-5A967798EB81.thumb.png.fbbcf434176abf04639b1eb34fbe81b4.png

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFS 12Z                                                    06Z
GFSOPEU12_132_1.pngGFSOPEU06_138_1.png

Bit of an improvement with the GFS, slightly less energy going out of the E of Canada. May improve things later would be good to see the UKMO on board. That makes a much bigger deal out of the low... may chop and change for quite a while given this is a region where uncertainties are often higher.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UN144-21.GIF?24-17 UW144-21.GIF?24-17
UKMO, to the naughty corner you go. The way it shoots that secondary low NNE instead of leaving it to the SW of the ridge is most unpleasant - and a warning note for those getting too involved with GFS. As much as that second dip in the trough could perhaps allow the ridge to back west again, we do need a good ECM run this evening.

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

UN144-21.GIF?24-17
UKMO, to the naughty corner you go.

Verifies much better than the GFS though, I think this will be closer to the mark, with the GFS 24 hours behind as ever.

Still very cold though, but dry.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 12z begining' to make much less of an' issue bring the colder air in on 12z..

Has a well defined nw/slant on the ridge...

Aiding deeper 850s impacts to the uk. .

Ukmo still wondering off to a varied evolution!!...

gfs-1-156.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Gfs 12z is gonna be a cracker of a run

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_174_1.png
Lets hope this GFS is onto something, energy heading south and plenty of WAA to support a build of pressure over Greenland yet again.

Fingers crossed for a good ECM later.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Gfs12z is beautiful...ukmeto not on the same planet tho unfortunately...why oh why can we not get cross model agreement just once :nonono:

I wouldnt get too hung up looking at GFS 12z personally...as tempting as it is !:cold:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs12z is beautiful...ukmeto not on the same planet tho unfortunately...why oh why can we not get cross model agreement just once :nonono:

I wouldnt get too hung up looking at GFS 12z personally...as tempting as it is !:cold:

 

Im hopong the GFS is better at handling the upstream, after all it’s on its doorstep. 

Shall be off to look at the discussions later.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well the gfs 12z so far is a cracker of a run. :cold:. But think we should take it with a huge ton of grit. Seems like the ukmo is going off on a different coarse although still cold. Let’s see what the ecm says later. Great model watching so early in the season though.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

We have a mild sector...

gfs-1-150.png?12

good and bad news - good news because it will mean a decent front that is probably snow-bearing for many - bad news because it will be rain in the "mild sector"

UKMO looks shaky at T144 - but don't forget some of ensembles today saw a temporary slight flattening of the pattern as some energy went over the top, then ridging established once again afterwards.

 

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