Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bluearmy]

27 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

As a footnote I have to say the latest EC46 is quite encouraging.

For Sidney or the masses ...........

by the time it goes less cold it's in lala land anyway

cold run for the states out to the end  which is contra to most previous runs. 

[MR EXTREMES]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm deviates quite quickly from the gfs. At Monday 00 it has the front starting to impact north west Scotland but it is tracking the wave further south and snow on the high ground in Scotland is on the cards. The front and rain quickly cross the country during Monday and by 12 Tuesday the low has tracked south east into the southern North Sea. With the high pressure amplifying north into Iceland a northerly airflow is initiated over the UK, albeit not unduly cold.

From here until Thursday 00 the low drifts a little south west to be  over the Dover Straits whilst the HP to the west ridges a tad north east thus creating a fairly strong north easterly across the UK. This would produce many shower's along the east coast, wintry in the north, and perhaps longer periods of rain in the south east, but the airmass is not particularly cold.

From here the low quickly loses it's identity and the HP becomes more influential.

As a footnote I have to say the latest EC46 is quite encouraging.

Not unduly cold well to my eyes it's pretty impressive for autumn.

Best bit of news the main vortex segment over Siberian side.

Very little vortex over Canada.

I've got my towel back it's looking extremely interesting and no point looking for the end of the cold spell as default the models will breakdown heights like butter but reality is that many blocks are just to robust to remove as quickly as models project 

I just hope the disruption to the vortex continues.

Still believe we may well have a sudden stratospheric warming.

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For Sidney or the masses ...........

by the time it goes less cold it's in lala land anyway

cold run for the states out to the end  which is contra to most previous runs. 

For Sidney of course but since when did an obsessive, extremist, cult become the masses?

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Not unduly cold well to my eyes it's pretty impressive for autumn.

 

I find that one of life's wonders is how the quality of eyesight varies in this thread depending on the output. Must be a research paper in this.

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

For Sidney of course but since when did an obsessive, extremist, cult become the masses?

I wouldn,t let Sidney get to complacent based on that Knocker. Isn,t this the same EC 46 model that suggested a cold blocked December last year?

[MR EXTREMES]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I find that one of life's wonders is how the quality of eyesight varies in this thread depending on the output. Must be a research paper in this.

Watching models back track and how they deal with unusual set ups is interesting.

2009/10 proves this.

From my eyesight which I agree is not the best,

but good that we have zoom options lol.

I feel there's chance of under cut and reload possibilities.

But we shall see cold outlook is a good start to late autumn and winter.

Just goes to show how well a east QBO works little better towards cold.

[karlos1983]

More good output overnight! I’m very happy!!

GFS does look the best out of the big three. If we look at all 3 at +96 it gives us a pretty good idea why. Much better WAA on the GFS which allows height to build north.

so that’s where if I’m being picky we want the UKMO and ECM to improve later on today.

Will definitely be worth looking at what the state side discussions are this morning. Hopefully they side with the GFS as to me that looks the best based on this mornings out put for prelonging cold! Although all 3 are good!

 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by karlos1983
Typo

[bluearmy]

The recent eps trend of upgrading the mid Atlantic upper ridge and sceuro low anomolies continues this morning out to the end of the run 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The recent eps trend of upgrading the mid Atlantic upper ridge and sceuro low anomolies continues this morning out to the end of the run 

Fabulous news Blue...hopefully Exeter will be leaning more on the colder side today after a couple of faulty updates( mentioning the m word) ...

Nothing mild in todays 00z runs.personally im looking forward to frost watch next week...

[The Northern Ramper]

Every day I log in expecting a downgrade and every day I am pleasantly surprised.

We might actually get something most of want here, just need the met on board now.

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fabulous news Blue...hopefully Exeter will be leaning more on the colder side today after a couple of faulty updates( mentioning the m word) ...

Nothing mild in todays 00z runs.personally im looking forward to frost watch next week...

If you are talking the 15/30 dayer then that’s nothing really  to do with the eps .....

however the AO tanking to -3 later week 2 on both eps and gefs 

[karlos1983]

Was nice to see the 15c disappeared from the Ensembles (yesterday’s 12z). know your place 15c, we’ll see you next April 

-5c welcome sir please make yourself comfortable. 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by karlos1983

[Sky Full]

Cold conditions for most of us now nailed on until the end of November and some will see snow - not a bad statement at this time of year and perhaps a good sign for the winter ahead!   My attention is now focused on December 1st (which happens to be my birthday).  Go back as far as you like but I can't remember a single year when snow fell at low levels in the south on this date.  The charts are offering an outside chance that I could break this record at last:

GFS          

ECM          

UKMO.        (30 November)

This is surely a great start to the cold season and could produce a much colder than average December.  Are we about to enjoy an epic winter?  All I know for sure is that if I spend any more time reading this thread and checking the charts I am going to need a new tablet for Christmas - the battery on this I-pad is not going to stand up to the abuse much longer... 

[Frosty.]

Plenty of cold clean crisp arctic air on the 00z models which is great to see, just a less cold wetter day on Monday then turning colder again..life is good for coldies..what a pleasant change that is!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO maintaining a NE'ly flow at t168 with frequent showers along the east coast and some further west occasionally

[nick sussex]

Positives and negatives this morning.

The jet looks uninterested in firing up, the PV remains far enough to the nw so any attempt to breakdown the ridge will be a struggle and the ECM tries to take another chunk of the PV towards Scandi. We do though need to see an injection of deeper cold into the flow.

On the negative side I think some patience is going to be needed because we don't have that deep cold close by ready to tap into.

The models still diverge with their solutions however NOAA do not like GFS ops for upstream:

REGARDING LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
BY EARLY MON, GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO OUTPACE OTHER SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  FROM THE START OF
THE PERIOD THIS PRECLUDED USE OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS IN THE
FORECAST BLEND.

To see improvements in the ECM we need to see more trough disruption around T192hrs.

We're missing some amplitude upstream which would help to elongate this low and send some energy under the block:

The low circled red responds to the upstream flow, sharper upstream will help to amplify the low which in turn change its tilt to more negative allowing more forcing by the high pressure which in turn helps to disrupt energy se which allows that high to edge nw at the same time this will help pull the low ne of Scandi south to the east.

Its a good thing to remember for newcomers  every upstream change has a knock on effect downstream.

Overall the outputs are good in terms of potential but expectations need to be managed this is no Dec 2010 at this point and the depth of cold  isn't there.

My best advice is to just see how things evolve, depth of cold might change and so could snow prospects.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[shaky]

Gfs 06z the same so far!!looking great with heights going up into the arctic again at 84 hours!!!

[booferking]

GFS moving more towards Euros with the more rounded high not quite linking up with Arctic high does seem to be 24hrs behind euros like someone mentioned a couple of days ago. But all in all cold weather looks locked in till the start of Dec and I'll take that any day.

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, Ramp said:

Every day I log in expecting a downgrade and every day I am pleasantly surprised.

We might actually get something most of want here, just need the met on board now.

 

Or better still the actual weather, they are all but predictions/forecasts after all. But like James Brown, "I feel good" about things, currently as a coldie. I'll await the UKMO 12z and ECM 12z with interest tonight. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

Nice to see that GloSea is showing a blocked Pattern "well into mid month" as per Fergie's recent tweet. EC Shows a more mobile pattern after week 1 in Dec but still with -ve AO.

interesting model watching to continue for some time by the sounds of it.  and chances a plenty 

[Met4Cast]

The high seems to be sinking quite rapidly on the 06z, similar to the ECM overnight runs

[booferking]

Quite a difference at 144hr arctic high link is crucial for a more potent Northerly we dont get it on this run back for the 12z later.  

 

ESB is the player in this we need sharper troughing like 00z run

Edited November 24, 2017 by booferking

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The high seems to be sinking quite rapidly on the 06z, similar to the ECM overnight runs

Vs 
Looks more blocked to me in the Atlantic.

[frosty ground]

Timber..... New trend or Outlier?

Edited November 24, 2017 by frosty ground

[karlos1983]

GFS 06z clearly has a hangover 

I will be astounded if the op isn't a massive outlier. Given all the signals, this just doesn't seem at all plausible.

Edited November 24, 2017 by karlos1983