Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Mucka]

Very nice long fetch Arctic flow meaning much colder 850's will food South should we get something as good as this.

 

[weirpig]

Real cold uppers now moving down 

[tight isobar]

As the flow improves...so do the 850s.

Theres some good devolping pooling now ...

And all that attributes for us setting up for the tap in!!!

 

Edited November 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Very nice long fetch Arctic flow meaning much colder 850's will food South should we get something as good as this.

 

Let's hope so, Mucka...because thundersleet doesn't really appeal!

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo isnt quite as good at 144 - maybe 7/10 but no means bad though---

hoping to see the GFS bring that deep cold south -

I wouldn't kick it out of bed that's for sure, Energy set to go over the block but with low pressure preventing a standard toppler  - still, much prefer GFS

[Geordiesnow]

GFS aside, it does seem like we are moving away somewhat from a true Greenland high to a Mid Atlantic high which is what happens virtually everything time these set up occurs, always seem to be one reason or another but it always happens.

Still can't believe the sheer lack of cold air on our side of the Arctic, it really is a case of feeding on scraps, all the deep PV is in Eastern Russia and china, like it always seem to be the case in recent years.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo isnt quite as good at 144 - maybe 7/10 but no means bad though---

hoping to see the GFS bring that deep cold south -

Assuming t144 on ukmo was right, what would you think would happen with the ridge? Thanks in advance.

[Singularity]

Best address this before the 12z GFS euphoria turns everyone delirious 

It doesn't manage the alignment to push the ridge all the way poleward for a strong connection to the Arctic Hihg, but it does keep the Svalbard low independent of the Canadian lobe and with minimal transport of cold air across Greenland based on the isolines, so given the neg-tilted trough extension in the Atlantic, it's probably alright for sustaining a block in the vicinity of Iceland for at least another day or two.  

[tight isobar]

Oi oi ...

Its all going top..

And the scandi wrap is also a feature...

850s dropping like tottenhams form!!

-in prem-

Edited November 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Assuming t144 on ukmo was right, what would you think would happen with the ridge? Thanks in advance.

Very hard to say - something like the GFS just not as clean-

GFS 150 bringing in -9c polar air to scotland- proper deep cold ! Deep snow by then for the hills !!

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

GFS aside, it does seem like we are moving away somewhat from a true Greenland high to a Mid Atlantic high which is what happens virtually everything time these set up occurs, always seem to be one reason or another but it always happens.

I don't think that's true at all.

We normally go from an attempt at a true Greenland High to a quickly toppling high.

This is very unusual in that the Atlantic ridge is very slow moving and does not topple.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Very hard to say - something like the GFS just not as clean-

GFS 150 bringing in -9c polar air to scotland- proper deep cold ! Deep snow by then for the hills !!

Yes that would be two of the big differences between GFS and UKMO from the mid term (850's) and chances of ppn.

GFS would give us a much better chance of seeing snow fall to low levels with both those factors more in our favour than UKMO.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

And of course UKMO plays party pooper

If that's what we call a "party pooper" then the other runs must be incredible!!

T144 - we're under a north easterly and that low in the Atlantic looks to be going under. 8.5 out of 10 from me!!

GFS 12Z, on the other hand, is nearly a perfect 10:

[SMU]

Just to add to how deep the cold is-

thats a nice toasty -9c @850 over london.

..

 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If that's what we call a "party pooper" then the other runs must be incredible!!

T144 - we're under a north easterly and that low in the Atlantic looks to be going under. 8.5 out of 10 from me!!

GFS 12Z, on the other hand, is nearly a perfect 10:

Well if we are scoring on comparison 

Then GFS 9.5/10 and UKMO 6/10 for the reasons stated above.

It is a matter of context.

In no way is UKMO a bad chart for coldies (and I never suggested it was) but compared to GFS it is the cousin we lock in the attic (We all have one right?)

Edited November 23, 2017 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't think that's true at all.

We normally go from an attempt at a true Greenland High to a quickly toppling high.

This is very unusual in that the Atlantic ridge is very slow moving and does not topple.

Still time for that too happen but stand by the point that getting a true Greenland high is very hard to achieve nowadays for whatever reason.

As it happens, I think the UKMO will be like the ECM and that is the high slowly toppling in hopefully the ECM has a more robust ridge as that will give more room for error.

[Man With Beard]

I suppose to get a perfect 10 we'd want that cold low to the north of Scandi to be catapulted towards the UK on a gale force NEly...

[tight isobar]

Now you can't be knocking synoptics like this anytime..especialy late november.

Ukmo not as dramatic...

But a few minor tweaks..and some westward migrate of the ridge and its running along-side gfs 12z...

Edited November 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to add to how deep the cold is-

thats a nice toasty -9c @850 over london.

..

 

Just what the doctor ordered!

[Jonan92]

UKMO and GEM are very similar with a heights that don't get far enough to last long, something similar to this morning's ECM. In my experience GFS is usually the lat to come onboard with an idea and the last to leave it behind, so personally I don't put much faith on this run

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Jonan92 said:

 In my experience GFS is usually the last to come onboard with an idea and the last to leave it behind, so personally I don't put much faith on this run

That's not just your experience, it is actually a fact .

[Tom Jarvis]

Wait didn’t this happen for the 2010 spell that the ukmo and the ecm dropped the idea of the spell just as the gfs got onto the idea and then the ukmo and ecm came back to show nice charts??

[Ventnor Viking]

It looks as though at 210 GFS heights are diminishing and the polar energy groups are merging back together to possible start up the polar vortex.....of course 210 is about 80hrs to far forward to consider speculating about in these set ups......

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Wait didn’t this happen for the 2010 spell that the ukmo and the ecm dropped the idea of the spell just as the gfs got onto the idea and then the ukmo and ecm came back to show nice charts??

Gfs come out trumps...

Ec-ukmo kept toying!!!

Then we got agree!

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's not just your experience, it is actually a fact .

The gfs has already been down the ecm,  ukmo road but has found a new one!!

 

still much to be resolved but the gfs was fun to watch rolling out.