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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
53 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Interesting, the research of Wenjun Zhang however found a correlation between an eastern pacific based La nina with a negative NAO. And central based with a +VE NAO.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf 

agreed an East based nine is better for our chances of cold, So they say.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

Plenty of options on the table as we move into December. The main difference between the 06Z OP and Control is the former slides the HP to the SE from mid Atlantic allowing a weak Atlantic flow to resume while the Control keeps the HP further north and intensifies the core to 1045 MB over the Alps with a strong ridge back NW over the British Isles so if you want cold, frosty, foggy conditions the Control is one to bank.

Oddly enough, and I'm not sure if it's cause or effect, the OP keeps the PV very weak and disorganised while the Control returns very low heights to Greenland and re-invigorates the PV in its usual place.

I would say about a third of the Members keep some short of blocking around Greenland even out to T+324 and no sign of the blowtorch with any SW'lies returning PM sourced air.

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

It’s only out to T+84 - hold your horses!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
5 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsnh-0-96.png?6  gfsnh-0-90.png?12

I'm not so sure; LP has cleared more cleanly (no shallow feature trailing behind) and the LPs over Canada are closer together which means a better chance of them merging further west in 2-3 days time, which would help going forward. There is also marginally better alignment of the flow in the western flank of the ridge but that's very slight indeed. Still - even small deviations have impacts that grow a lot over time... 

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Just now, Mucka said:

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

I was just goingo to mentiont that. The low takes longer to clear but the american low is better tilted this run

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

Just seen the +96 which makes the difference clearer than the +90 I was posting about :rolleyes::D.

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

Heights rising further north in this run

gfsnh-0-108_oqk3.png

 

The low to the east of Greenland is further away, so the heights have a clearer path

Edited by Jonan92
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsnh-0-114.png?6 gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Looking very good so far with better alignment of the flow on both sides of the ridge! This allows for a 'fatter' wedge of higher heights to link tot he Arctic High, much as per the UKMO 12z of yesterday. It also directs cold air from by Svalbard more directly toward the UK...

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

The strength of the block is easily seen in the jet profile

 

06z

gfsnh-5-132_bhc9.png

12z

gfsnh-5-126_agr5.png

 

In this run the flow gets interrupted

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsnh-0-132.png?12

It's a very good sign if I'm racing Steve Murr to deliver the news :D

This looks fantastic. Now let's see what tricks GFS has up its sleeves to try and make a hash of things :p

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

And of course UKMO plays party pooper

UN120-21.GIF?23-17

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nowt' wrong with that..

Gfs 12z..

Lovely flow into greenland.

 

gfsnh-0-132.png

gfs-0-132.png

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That looks ok   Ill wait for the 144  to make to many judgements.

144 chart looks good to me.  Stiff north-easterly - not desperately cold but this is a decent chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Edited by mulzy
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