Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[booferking]

Best run of the year so far ECM.

Edited November 22, 2017 by booferking

[Allseasons-Si]

As winston churchill would say...

oh yes!yes!yes!

Edited November 22, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[MKN]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Best run of the year so far ECM.

If you like it cold and dry yes.

[SMU]

For total northern blocking probably one of the best runs ever !!

however lets get the ridge to 48>72 first!!

JMA similar at 132 as well--

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, MKN said:

If you like it cold and dry yes.

In true cold spells That statement has been has been inaccurate pretty much 100% of the time!

[feb1991blizzard]

These runs are getting more and more spectacular by the day - if you like max temps of 4c, mins of -1c and bone dry!!

Edited November 22, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Luke Best]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A virtual pint for the 1 key date in the archives we had an atlantic ridged into the arctic meeting an arctic high ( Not Greenland ! )

answers on a postcard!

And the year was?

[nick sussex]

Good stuff from the ECM tonight, almost a carbon copy of its 00hrs run.

Its far ahead but at T240hrs if we get some trough disruption to send energy under the high that will lock in the cold and with the PV not interested in setting up in its normal place you couldn't really ask for more given some of the recent horror starts to winter.

Overall I'm very happy with the outputs barring the misery GFS. Given the timeframes it would be good to see that making a decisive move towards the others on its 18hrs run.

 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

If you like it cold and dry yes.

Anything is better than those mild , horrible, dirty , damp and wet Westly winds . Come on ECM .  

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

And the year was?

Dec 31st 1984.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

If you like it cold and dry yes.

Nothing wrong with cold and dry aslong skies are clear/sunny but i do hope any trend of keeping the trigger low too close to the east coast backs off and we get in the true northerly flow because believe you me, anyone living on the East coast won't relish a cold wind with rain falling which is what the weather would do if that chart came off. The further East the centre of the low the better as it be more convective if we do pull in a northerly flow and whilst uppers stay unremarkable(not once do the uppers get below -7 on the ECM which tends to be around the point where rain turns to snow away from the coasts.

 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In true cold spells That statement has been has been inaccurate pretty much 100% of the time!

Thank you Steve some funny statements in here tonight people tend to forget what we have put up with this last few winters and this one is nothing like them and it hasn't even started yet.

Edited November 22, 2017 by booferking

[Luke Best]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dec 31st 1984.

What followed? If memory serves me right we got a proper big dump of snow that winter. (Bournemouth). 

[Scandinavian High.]

Is that an undercut taking place there low going underneath high pressure going north.

Edited November 22, 2017 by abbie123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Would never have guessed that, I started by checking 22 Nov  '62 through Dec '62

 

[Sn0wmad79]

2 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

And the year was?

Looks like a similar evolution to End of Nov 2010. Where the atlantic linked with HP over the pole, didn't end up a full on Greenland high but more of rubust wedge of HP to north of the UK, more an Icelandic HP. Gave the goods for a lot of people that year. Could be wrong but sure Steve will pull out another date :P.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For total northern blocking probably one of the best runs ever !!

however lets get the ridge to 48>72 first!!

JMA similar at 132 as well--

Last nights JMA was the last bit of support GFS had among other models

It is an improvement tonight but still as close to GFS as ECM.

JMA/GFS/ECM 168

ECM has been the most consistent and is backed by UKMO so that has to be the favoured solution.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

These runs are getting more and more spectacular by the day - if you like max temps of 4c, mins of -1c and bone dry!!

For November I'm not complaining, roughly a week ago the ECM was showing this for this forthcoming Saturday......Looking at that chart... 4c to -1 is just great

Edited November 22, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[Frosty.]

I'm going to repeat what I said 24 hours ago about the last Ecm 12z op run..

Holy icecubes, Quick..to the ensembles robin

Edited November 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Midlands Ice Age]

12 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

And the year was?

Luke...

My guess would be 1961....

December

MIA

 Edit 

 Just seen Steve's response....

Edited November 22, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[Mucka]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dec 31st 1984.

 

Doesn't look up to much on reanalysis Steve?

EDIT

Looks much better by Jan 2nd though, wouldn't of thought that from 1st chart. Just shows how an arctic high can help. Nice comparison.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Mucka

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

These runs are getting more and more spectacular by the day - if you like max temps of 4c, mins of -1c and bone dry!!

Feb how long have you been on netweather? 

I remember everybody saying that in 2009/10 And 2010/11, do you know what happened there?! 

Whilst people are right to express concern over uppers, the longer the air comes down from the arctic the colder the air will be, the cold over aisa will trickle our way it will just need a bit of  a sustained airflow, 

But any frontal activity with 850's below-3 with an easterly drift should be sufficient for a snow event, 

Also remember that this time of year, we have very little sun strength, and it's possible to home grow cold pools of air, infact I'd be quite optimistic that Europe's 850's will drop at least 1/2°c once the arctic airmas sets in.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Feb how long have you been on netweather? 

I remember everybody saying that in 2009/10 And 2010/11, do you know what happened there?! 

Whilst people are right to express concern over uppers, the longer the air comes down from the arctic the colder the air will be, the cold over aisa will trickle our way it will just need a bit of  a sustained airflow, 

But any frontal activity with 850's below-3 with an easterly drift should be sufficient for a snow event, 

Also remember that this time of year, we have very little sun strength, and it's possible to home grow cold pools of air, infact I'd be quite optimistic that Europe's 850's will drop at least 1/2°c once the arctic airmas sets in.

Yes but out of a suite of 50 and another  one of 20, you would expect a decent number to show this in FI if it was more than just an outside chance.

[SMU]

21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Doesn't look up to much on reanalysis Steve?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/reanalysis.php?jaar=1984&maand=12&dag=31&map=1&model=cfsr&var=1

Not to derail the thread but roll on to day 2-3/4 etc!

on topic - the fact Im referring to a chart from 33 years ago shows the average return on this chart- 1 every 33 winters or 99 months !

You would feel odds on that the ridge is 90-95% safe now at 96-144 - its just how vertical it goes with the ECM going full meltdown- that 144-168 evolution is still maybe 15-20% but at least its on the table...

S

[chris55]

The ECM is a rare evolution going from recent winters (but a convincing one)

Pretty much every single time we see a mid Atlantic ridge bringing a colder north/northwesterly, and the acossiated northerly snow showers and odd frost down south, the jet will inevitably or even inexorably ride over the top, but no.....ECM gives us a solid block and link up with the Arctic heights, producing a proper blocked set up.  

Timing looks favourable for a change! :0